1/3, TT facing 3-bet and a cold call

In my younger days, I would have won this pot because I would have shoved the tens. Surely, button folds his draw now (IDK) and I hit the turn and win SBs stack.

But now, I feel way ahead on this flop, until SB bets 125. What makes this game hard is how often the wrong move wins.

I’ll speak for myself but I think I expected buttons 3b range to be tighter all though AQss is in that 3b range but also expected SB cold calling range to be super narrow.

Basically got SB range wildly wrong and would say for btn I’d lean with his flop action more towards OPs than AQs because they don’t always 3b that but it’s certainly the least surprising thing of the hand.

Would’ve never given a Spanish reg 44 there.

I mean, runout doesn't matter.

The SB action on the Flop is not very surprising, imo (though it does contradict your read). The preflop action is surprising, but also not that unusual for live players. Altogether, idk this hand doesn't seem that big of a deal to me. Also you again played all the streets correctly.

Err, what? If you put it in after SB, there's probably a < 5% chance that BN folds the nut flush draw. At that point he almost should call, and people call way wider with flush draws than they should. If you put it in there, you go broke to the BN. (Not that it matters for the decision anyway.)

Imo the takeaways of this hand are:

1. SB is a very bad player (both preflop and flop are blunders imho)
2. BN 3bets a little wider than just AK, JJ+ (but not much wider, don't over-update).

BTN would not fold the nut flush draw is hero shoved, because he would be getting better odds with a likely 3-way allin. Shoving flop would have been just terrible.

SB's call with 44 preflop is bad, but doesn't lose that much. His leading almost pot with a set is probably also not optimal. He is likely a Euro pro playing in softer US games, but he is playing 1/3, so probably is not that good. The read could also be off and he is a Latin American living in the US amateur or a Latin American bad reg.

Not a central crux for anything, but I doubt it doesn't lose much. I think this call loses plenty.

The 10:1 set mining thing doesn't actually work, it's just a rough heuristic. You don't always have the best hand if you hit the set (he did here and had the worst hand). Even if you have the best hand, you don't always win that much. And the value of the pair also matters; even going one down makes the hand a little weaker because it increase the probability that you get it in set over set, or lose against A♥5♥ that hit a 5 or something like that. This would still be a losing call with 99, but it's much worse with 44.

I mean he's worst position with a hand that's behind against both ranges, and FreeCard could have shoved preflop, in which case he loses 50 right away. The preflop call is pretty horrendous.

A takeaway I’m getting here that I didn’t expect. Yes, the button 3bet with AQs is standard.

Honestly, I often semi-bluff a nut flush draw like the one button holds. But does this really seem like a good idea after a reg donked a near pot-sized flop bet into two people? I think most of you are saying yes, but aren’t we sacrificing fold equity?

I know he got there this time, but do like this play?

If SB has a small overpair then BN isn't even behind, so raising isn't terrible. But fold equity is minimal so I'd probably just call. If BN doesn't improve and SB doesn't put it all in on the Turn, then you can get away from the hand as BN.

44 is a mild surprise, but there are plenty of people who are very happy to flat any pp, apparently this guy is one of them. They think pps "play great multiway". I'm never really surprised when anyone turns up with a random pp, $1/$3 players way overplay them pre and play them way too passively post.

The more interesting and profitable read is that SB will donk his monsters into a dynamic flop for no reason at all. For him, a x/r is by far the superior choice, but he was afraid of the FD and he was afraid it would check through. So when V donks big in the future, you know he has monsters in his range. He could still have draws and baloney, but more importantly - when this V checks wet dynamic flops OOP, he's weak, and his range isn't properly protected. We can bet more often and have less fear of being x/r. When he does x/r a wet dynamic board, we should weight him more to strong draws because his sets are donking sometimes.

For the btn, AQs is a perfectly reasonable 3!. But his raise OTF is a blunder. He obviously has very little fold equity against any hand donking that big, but he stuck it in anyway. So we know he overplays his FDs. So when he plays passively on a FD board, we can discount the NFD from his range. When he's pushing hard on a flop with a FD, we can expect that he has more draws than he should.

Yeah, maybe bad read that SB was Euro pro. SB played the whole hand terribly.

Many low stakes players play small pps in bad situations, but some people here advocate folding them in good situations. In most situations in 1/3 with multiway single raised or limped pots, small pps are gold.

Yes if he reads the donk as strong he has little fold equity but look how you are condemning SB for donking a monster. If btn agrees and thought the donk represented a stab at the hand with say a hand like 88 or even JJ then the raise does have fold equity and with 15 outs he does not mind a call. Depends a lot on how you range the donk bet.

The small blind should have no donk here with any hand. It's simply a bad play whether SB has a monster or a total whiff. And its a bad play BTN rewarded by making an equally bad play.

Even if you want to read the donk as weak (I don't know why you'd ever have that read at $1/$3, but ok, let's pretend). Calling is superior to raising when you are IP, and you don't have a hand. 54 has 46% equity vs BTNs hand and SB doesn't have a made hand, he probably has a smaller FD and we sure as heck don't want to bet that out of the pot. If SB somehow has an airball bluff, let him punt.

Getting 166 bbs in OTF IP with just the NFD in a 3! multiway pot is horrible poker. BTN can consider an LOL fold here, if SB is doing this with JJ/TT and random air into two uncapped ranges, then all UTG and BTN have to do is call with thick value, and SB is torching. A call is probably fine, but jamming it all in this deep, I don't see how that's anything but punt. I get that it sucks to call and then V jams the brick turn and you don't have odds to continue with a FD that often has two outs that are dirty. But it isn't like you have to worry about this line from SB being overbluffed.

Are you saying this with regards to the flop play (i.e. so you're disappointed you didn't get your stack in as a massive dog that would have binked your long shot?). This is really wack results oriented thinking, imo.

FWIW, I think Button played it fine. The SPR is lol 3, so risk versus reward is there. QQ-TT is a large part of a preflop cold callers / flop donking range and they fold enough to aggression to make a flop shove massively EV with all the hand equity. Even against a tricky KK with little FE it's doing fine, obviously crushing draws, and really only doing poorly against tricky AA and sets. He should never be looking to "get away" from this hand at this SPR nor calling the flop only to have to dump it UI on the turn having sunk it a crapload of money to not even realize equity / flex FE.

SB's preflop call is torching money (terrible IO at these stacks and Hero can still 4bet). I actually don't hate the flop donk attempting to trap the Hero between the Button, but not a fan of the large sizing.

GimoG