1/2: AA facing flop x/r from reg multiway
Stacks: $500 eff (SB ~$200)
Hero image: Tight reg
Villain: Loose reg UTG, usually passive vs me
Preflop: UTG limps, Hero UTG1 $20 with A♦A♥ (too many whales at table who will call this sizing), SB calls, UTG calls
Flop ($60): K♠ T♣ 2♠
UTG checks, Hero $40, SB calls, UTG raises to $120..
⸻
Thoughts:
• This is effectively a stack-off decision (V shoves most turns).
• Villain rarely raises here; last big bet vs me was top set.
• Multiway pot heavily reduces bluff frequency.
• SB is shallow (~$200), which further reduces V’s fold equity and makes semi-bluff x/r’s unattractive.
• Strong value looks like KTo, 22 (maybe KTs but he opens that pre)
• Best-case is semi-bluffs like Tx♠♠
• Raise to $120 feels like it wants a call, not folds, especially vs my image on a board that smashes my range
Conclusion:
V’s x/r range appears too strong and honest to continue profitably with AA. Call or fold?
14 Replies
Not folding yet. No reason to 3B. Just call. If he sticks it in on the turn, we'll cross that bridge then.
What did SB do?
Raising into a bet and a call feels like value here, so I feel like it's most likely KT or 22. Not sure what flush draws he limps UTG here unless he's super wide, and not sure he has any Kx hands that take this line when you can have all the AK in range. Not sure I'm ready to fold yet, though.
I guess I would need to spike some help, because I’m re-jamming the flop. You’re a tight reg, he’s a loose reg - so put him to the decision, instead of guessing what to do now.
It seems quite possible he will make a bad decision even if he’s strong. Give him a chance to level himself into giving you too much credit
Think how strong your move looks
You undoubtedly have some outs if he is ahead
It feels bad getting aces cracked, but worse folding them and finding out you leveled yourself & they would have won.
I would call down here. He is basically only repping 22 and KTs (only 5 total combos) and there are a lot of combo draws available.
It's a close decision. You're getting around 2:1. You're ahead of all his 1P + draw combos, ahead of all his OESD's and FD's, you have around 18% equity against 2P, and maybe 6% against a set.
I'd think his only sets are 22, and his only 2P would be KT. The rest of his range is going to be draws or 1 pair + a draw.
His flop x/r sizing was somewhat small. I'd think his 2P+ and sets would raise larger, and sometimes just donk out.
I'd probably call it off, unless I thought he just wasn't capable of taking this line with anything other than 2P or a set.
I think it comes down to the read and the game flow. Not having the A♠ you unblock all of the flush draws, tho it seems like that would be an aggressive deviation from what you have been seeing from this player. Is there a reason for this player to either limp call a strong hand pre, or c/r a semi bluff?
I think AQ-ATss would have been raised pre. QJ QT, JTss etc are possible but those are a small set of draws that smashed the flop and if your read is that this player typically calls, even with a big draw, then we are mostly beat. I wouldn't rule out TT in n addition to KT and 22
Man of Means makes good points.
It's close. Really comes down to our read. Calling can't be terrible. But we might be better off making a slightly nitty fold.
how have you seen him play top pair in the past?
sometimes this is AK but you block that. it really looks like KT or 22 to me. maybe TT. if he doesnt raise KQ on the flop you are toast.
• This is effectively a stack-off decision (V shoves most turns).• Villain rarely raises here; last big bet vs me was top set.• Multiway pot heavily reduces bluff frequency.• SB is shallow (~$200), which further reduces V’s fold equity and makes semi-bluff x/r’s unattractive.• Strong value looks like KTo, 22 (maybe KTs but he opens that
Not sure how anyone argues with any of this if those are your reads. You all but exclude bluffs, his last ''big bet'' vs you was top set. Not sure how we're not running into a set here again. Especially if we're assuming any reasonable flush-draw on this board would be played as an open pre therefore we can exclude them entirely.
I'd be the last to advocate for bet/folding this flop but I don't see any reason to argue with your reads. As played, what I wrote also applies for turn.
Best case scenario we're hoping for an overplayed AK which seems unlike and we block it.
This is just a table/player read. Not much else you can do but go with your "gut." Reading that he is usually passive vs. you makes me want to sigh-fold.
OP, I mean no offense by this...
Some of your threads give off a "scared money" vibe.
Your read of V is that he's a loose reg, who typically plays passive vs you. I'm not sure what that means, or why that would be, if you have a TAG-reg image.
If you're playing TAG, I'd think he'd want to tighten up versus you. If he's competent, I'd think he'd want to go for max value whenever your actions indicate a strong holding. If he's passive, I wouldn't expect him to have many x/r's when you c-bet, either for value or with bluffs.
In short, I wonder if the description given is at odds with the action, and may be a post-hoc justification for some decision you made which ultimately proved to be wrong, or which you suspect may have been wrong without having a reveal.
Is it possible that V may view you as scared money, playing too tight post-flop, such that he feels emboldened to play back at you?
My main reason for asking is that this hand could be analyzed very differently with different reads. We're all guessing V has KT or 22, or maybe even TT (though that seems fairly improbable, IMO), because of the reads you gave us and the range you gave him.
If V is competent, he might have a worse hand that just happened to have enough equity for him to think he could win this pot if he took a line that started with a flop check-raise and ended with a turn jam.
Maybe he's not playing passively vs you, and instead he's opportunistically raising flop because he (rightly) views SB as capped, and he (rightly) thinks you'll over-fold versus this line.
Just look at your own thoughts:
"Effectively a stack off decision" - translation, "Oh, no, I may have to play for all the money, and I only have 1P!"
"Villain rarely raises here; last big bet vs me was top set" - translation, "He got me before, he could do it again. He always has it vs me."
"Multi-way pot heavily reduces bluff frequency" - translation, "my micro-stakes opponents aren't capable of making a good play or a bad play. They just play face-up and everything is exactly what it seems."
"Small blind is shallow, further reducing V's fold equity and bluffing frequency" - translation, "I'm not capable of viewing this hand the way V would, seeing that the SB is capped and would have jammed with value, thus increasing the fold equity and bluffing frequency of his x/r."
"Best case is semi-bluffs with TXss" - translation, "Even his bluffs have showdown value and are likely to suck out on me."
"Raise to $120 feels like it wants a call..." - translation, "It's always nutted, never just a 1/2 reg raising small to 'see where he's at' or just building a pot with a good draw."
I'm not saying you should call. I'm not saying you should fold. I'm suggesting your in-game decisions seem to be driven by fear. And scared poker isn't winning poker.
Instead of seeking validation from strangers on the internet, focus instead on asking better questions in game, in order to have more confidence in your decisions.
Start with, "what's his range when he limps UTG, over-calls my 10BB open, then goes for a check-raise on KsTc2s? Does it make sense for him to take this line with 22, or KT, or TT? Or is it more consistent with a hand like TXss, or QJ? Does he ever find less intuitive bluffs with other hands? Would he take this small sizing with a strong but vulnerable hand, like 2P or a set? Or would he raise larger with those hands? Would he even do this with 22, when I can have TT or KK? Does he ever delay his check-raise with his nutted hands until the turn?"
On the turn - "If he was raising small on the flop with KT or 22, and I called, would he jam a brick, or bet small again, to set up a river jam? Is this more consistent with value that wants a call, or a semi-bluff that wants a fold? Does our hand block any of his bluffs? Do we have any outs for his bluffs? What does it look like *we* have here? Would he think we might be on a draw, or that we're capped when we don't 3B the flop?"
