BDSD and BDFD with AJo in HJ

Ugly spot. I would cbet here. You are ahead of many of his hands and he will call with worse.

Getting check/jammed on would suck though.

I’m cbettng ~$30. There’s many turn cards we will be able to dbl barrel on. Easy fold if villain x/r

I don't think it's an easy fold. Two overs, two backdoors, and a strong Ace-high is a lot of equity.

Villain has $145 back. If we cbet $30 and he jams, we have to call $115 to win what will be a pot of $374 ($84+$30+$145+$115). That means Hero needs 31% equity to profitably call. Hero is 27% against a TP hand like QTs.

If you play around in an equity calculator and assign Villain a range that includes strong flush draws and open-enders (J9s, 97s), as well as most TP, some sets, and T8s, you will see that Hero has somewhere in the neighborhood of 27% - 31% equity in this spot.

So it's a really close spot. If Villain is spewy, he could also jam an underpair or an airball here against a small cbet. And if OP sizes up at all on his cbet, he gets an even better price to call the jam.

I’m giving him a FreeCard and checking behind

For several reasons:
1. No fold equity from villain description
2. Don’t want to sweeten the pot when this guy might call me down with a pair of threes
3. They think you have AK when you do this
4. I want to see the turn & what this guy does:
If he checks again, he’s weak
If he bets, what size? Did the turn card help?
5. These are better reasons than folding out a few hands with equity.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine. If we think we might get too much loose action behind, I might 3B bigger, just to make sure we get to play IP post.

FLOP - sort of an awkward spot because of the SPR. Think we can check it back to leave ourselves some room to maneuver on the turn.

C-betting doesn't seem terrible, though. Just need to think about the sizing and what our pot odds will be if he raises. I think we would want to keep our sizing small, so we don't get pot stuck and have to call off a jam. Maybe no more than $25. Might even go smaller, just $20.

Maybe a slight preference for checking back here.

IMO if we bet we have to rep. NFD and bet turn clubs (maybe shoving), also have to think about stack sizes with our flop bet size. So if you don't want to do that (Eg. decide this isn't the guy to try to bluff off 8x or even 66 here) then just shrug and check, we can call a bunch of the better turn cards anyway and even still rep. the K if that hits. Also it's not like AJo is high in our 3bet range and we can be exploited if the turn is a 5 and he bets 60 or something.

Pre is good. I'd take the card here and check.

The hand continues

V opens LJ 15. Hero in HJ with AcJs. Hero? Hero bets 45. V calls.

Flop (84): Tc8c3d.

V checks. Hero? Hero bets 40 and later regrets not betting 30. V all in. Hero?

bet $25-30 and jam any club or high card on the turn.

obv fold now.

I think it’s a call. Need 28% equity and you basically have that against one pair. He can have draws you are ahead of and shouldn’t have many nutted hands.

Played fine and I just call it off. Vs described player you probably have more outs than you think and you could be ahead.

You don't have that against one pair:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8c3d
PLAYER_1 AcJs
PLAYER_2 8:50%
74250 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AcJs|23.8155%|23.6350%|0.3609%|17549|268|
8:50%|76.1845%|76.0040%|0.3609%|56433|268|
[/table]

And although calling 3bets with a 50% range seems insane, it's plausible V loves 98o or whatever. Obviously if you move to a smaller range pre. then you have less equity.

If you start including some cc,J9,97 then your equity will quickly get higher though.

Saying that, without some reads I'd heavily lean towards randoms having 8x or whatever and "protecting" against AK where they'd call 97 a lot more often.

tl;dr Would snap fold, unless I started running as well as Dan 😉

AcJs has 27.35% equity against this range: ATo,ATs,KTo,KTs,QTo,QTs,JTo,JTs,T9o,T9s,T7s,A8s,K8s,Q8s,J8s,98s,87s,86s,99,77,66,55,44,A3s

You can't run as good as me if you snap fold +EV spots against tilted shortstack whales. Give yourself a chance at least!

At this effective stack size (i.e. $190) a 3bet preflop basically commits us (at least against the shorter effective stack). So, if we're comfortable committing, then at this stack size I would 3bet preflop to an amount that sets up a PSB shove for the flop (giving us FE both preflop and on the flop, plus giving ourselves decent 2:1 odds on the flop if called to chase what will ikely be a 3:1 shot on overs). So I'd 3bet to ~$65 preflop and plan to shove any flop (perhaps slowplaying flops we nail).

As played, I'd probably still just shove the flop at this very small SPR (although our preflop sizing doesn't give us as good of odds if called).

ETA: Unlike everyone else who seems cool with it, I really dislike our preflop sizing. We should almost never be sticking in 1/4+ of our stack to not commit / not realize our equity / not flex FE, so size appropriately, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Ha ... fair enough.

And GG has said never fold, so I'm very likely on the wrong side.

Saying that, I was a bit confused how your range was so much higher EV ... and then I realized while you didn't have draws you also didn't have better than the one pair hands. And you can probably rule out TT and maybe 88, but there's still T8/33:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Tc8c3d
PLAYER_1 AcJs
PLAYER_2 (T,8,3):50%!10%
142560 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AcJs|24.6475%|24.4311%|0.4328%|34829|617|
(T,8,3):50%!10%|75.3525%|75.1361%|0.4328%|107114|617|
[/table]

(T,8,3):50%!10% is 159 hands, and doesn't include TT/88 but also not ATs/KTs.

Yeah I just put together that range to defend my admittedly-hyperbolic "basically have 28% against one pair" claim, so I just chose all realistic one pair combos and nothing else. Earlier when I made my first post ITT I was trying to put together complete ranges and I was getting closer to 30% when including some draws and some nuts.

I think it's reasonable to assume the average villain is much more likely to shove made hands than draws. That said, my default is to always assume some bluffs (esp. semi-bluffs) and the reads provided in OP make me think this could just be some random gamble from V. And I just don't like folding very much. One day it will catch up to me!

I hate myself and call.

V can have a pair. Also some draws. He could be spazzing with two overs.

Bonus Lulz if he wins with better ace-high.

Results

Hero folds. V mucks.