5/10: bottom set against a tight pro
5/10 full ring.
H has ~ 2700
Main V is most probably a pro; I have played a few hours with him and he seems to be on the
You called me out in the other thread, and rightfully so, but now I've got to also respectfully call you out here. He makes one half-pot sized bet on the flop and you immediately put him on one of the only two hands that can beat us That doesn't seem like reasonable hand ranging.I assume the reason you said JJ and not KK is because you're thinking KK often checks flop or bets s
So....you agree with me?
My ranging is basically...
FLOP - he bet 1/2 pot on the flop, into five opponents. I'd think he'd bet slightly smaller with KK or KJ, blocking so much of opponents' calling ranges. He can't have 77 or K7ss. JJ is the only hand that makes a lot of sense for this sizing, basically targeting any / all the KX he unblocks, and any draws.
TURN - V boats up, or makes quads. Now he's nutted, and doesn't want to push us out of the pot, so he checks. Hero bets kind of chunky, around half pot. V tanks. Why?
If I had to guess, I'd say he was debating a raise vs call, trying to figure out if hero has KX, or QThh, or maybe 77, or even K7ss. Hero did over-call from the button, so conceivably he has all those hands in range. JJ loses to K7hh, and all those other hands have some equity to suck out.
KJ probably wouldn't spend more than a second or two considering a raise. He has JJ, K7, 77, AQhh and QThh crushed, and he blocks too much of hero's calling range if he raises.
KK might take a little longer than KJ. I could see KK wondering if hero has JJ or 77, or just picked up a draw, and how often hero finds a fold if V check-raises turn.
Maybe he takes this line with AQhh or QThh that picks up the SFD, but is he really c-betting 1/2 pot into 5 opponents with those hands? Wouldn't he barrel turn with those hands, at least some of the time? He can credibly rep AK/KK/KQ/KJs/JJ/77 as the PFR, and expect to fold out some JX. Does he want to give up the betting lead here?
The reason I said we should check back is that's what I'd do if we we 3B pre and V x/r'd the flop, and checked to us again on the turn. I view V's large flop bet as analogous, when it comes to how we use it to define his range. This situation just reeks of someone who flopped huge and just got the world's best turn card.
RIVER - V checks a brick. Then tank-shoves after hero bets.
My best guess is he ended up flat calling turn because he wasn't sure about hero's range. He may have figured hero has enough draws but might not have enough combos of worse boats or trips, and all those draws would fold to a x/r.
But now when the draws brick, they're likely to bluff if he checks again, but will fold if he bets, whereas none of hero's boats or trip K's are going to check back, so he's not losing any value by checking.
Hero bets 1/2 pot, and V tank-shoves. Again, my best guess is that he took a moment to consider if hero ever shows up with the one combo of K7ss, or one of the two combos of KJ. Ultimately, he decides hero has a lot more trip K's or 77 he can target for value, and rips it in.
He doesn't appear to be bluffing. If this is thin value and he had serious doubts about his hand being best, he might block bet-fold, or just check-call.
When he takes this line, he could have KK, KJ, or JJ. My immediate gut reaction that he had JJ was just based on his flop bet sizing, because KK and KJ block too much of opponents' calling ranges. The rest of the hand with the checks and tank-calls just reinforces the impression of this being JJ.
All that said - it was getting late and I was tired when I posted last night. I read the OP and gave my immediate gut reaction. Re-reading it this morning, and skimming the other posts ITT, I gather we think hero's bet sizing might lead to V taking this line with a hand we can beat.
My thinking is that if V is aggro enough to c-bet the flop with those hands, he'd likely barrel turn with any of them that pick up equity, like AK, AQhh and QThh. But that line with AQ or QT doesn't seem to jive with the read that he's a tight pro, unless I just don't know how tight pros play those hands in 6-way pots.
Maybe it's AK, but...I kinda think AK blocks the river, or just check-calls. I think any value hand we beat blocks, or check-calls.
This check-jam is pretty polar, and jamming AQ or QT here seems suicidal, if he's trying to fold out trips+. I'd think those hands just check-fold.
I dunno. I keep coming back to his flop bet sizing. He's not worried about getting raised. He seems more interested in getting value from KX or a draw. I think KK and KJ bet smaller. And KK and KJ wouldn't need to tank before jamming the river.
It just smells exactly like JJ to me.
My thought was that V should be x-c all AK/KQ on river. Particularly, when H has already committed ~40% of their stack and is unlikely to fold. Are there nodes where V x-jams AK? I realize after Sub's solve screencaps, that H is supposed to shove 77 here so that may change things.
My thoughts behind fold is that:
1, V x-calls all AA and non-KK/KJ Kx to this size, assuming they don't bet out, but they don't x-jam them.
2, V x-jams all KK/KJ/JJ to a H that just led a King Turn. V also might x-jam whiffed draws, and all I have here for V is AQ/QT/T9hh.
That's not enough bluff vs value combos, so fold. If V has some AK x-jams, obviously things change.
The only info we get that V doesn't have AK, AA (maybe KQ) or JJ/KJ/KK is the river shove, which weighs him much more toward a hand that beats 77.
I need to read back through to see if V has a read on H, but that doesn't change much.
With his hollywooding ott&r it’s a snap check back for me. I would’ve made it 500 from the button on the flop in my 1-3/2-5 games with those stack sizes and two players behind me, bet 500 ott, then check back river.
As played, I guess it comes down to what you think his opinion of you is. An actual irl live cash 5-10 pro would absolutely read H for 77 and play JJ this way.
H has put in 40% of his stack, and played the hand relatively passively, would an actual pro think H feels pot-committed? Does V know if H is a regular 5-10 player or not (is H a reg?)?
Could V have put H on KQ and think he can move him off with AA AQ/Thh based on the previous few hours play?
1600 to win 3900, there’s a nontrivial chance V thinks H is tight weak or a passive fish (based strictly on what we’ve been given), I guess I crycall as played though he certainly has JJ 50% of the time at least.
Result: H reluctanctly calls and V shows JJ.
The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that I played this river as bad as I possibly could.
honestly you probably never win on the river vs large amount of pop (esp when jxhh isnt possible so not many natural bluffs) but i think you're being insanely results oriented about his flop strategy and dont really understand theory as well as you seem to think
"what is the theoretically correct flop cbet strategy 5 ways?" i have no idea but its probably not a range with 0 "bluffs" / "semi bluffs" / equity driven bets. whether he executes that or not is up for debate but you don't really have any reads in OP beyond he maybe follows a preflop chart and seem to have a very strong idea about his strategy and leaks in a spot he quite literally has probably never played or encountered before
think you also really want to avoid away from deviating in 50+bb spots otr without reads unless you are very very good at nuance or else you're likely going to give away way too much winrate in other spots
few more random thoughts i guess. think its fairly conceivable for reg to think you end up here with more Kx (this kxss or like KTo) than you "should" overcalling the button. its live poker and no one consistently plays well pre because boredom and you don't really get punished enough for not doing it (i mean look at this hand's pre action as evidence of that). so while you may know your river range is KQ+ theres no reason why he knows that. this is relevant because the more kx you get put on, the more likely he is to value raise AK / KQ (am aware this seems thin but if expectation is you dont have AK from pre and you don't have a boat very often from sizing, and you have too much k5ss kto type hands i think it becomes reasonable). think your river sizing make more sense with KJ / Kx than 77
would also think 6 way and 3 way cbetting ranges look somewhat simliar in terms of hands and proportions, just sizing and betting frequency drop. i guess if you play a similar scenario with him where he starts b20ing here or something we could come up with some assumptions re his strategy and likely find exploits. but i dont think you want to make that assumption automatically just because he uses b55 here otf without seeing evidence that hes splitting sizes or misconstructing range
This is a good hand. Half pot into four players is tricky to range, feels strong though. He should be turning showdown hands into a bluff on the river, but will he/what are they? AA for sure, maybe QQ (if it gets to the river like this, which feels unlikely) but really there should be some Kx turned into bluffs and enough AXhh hands as well. Better players than me have already given input but this feels like a fold to me, but it's a v interesting hand
On the other hand doesn't your range have a lot of Kx which is vulnerable to a shove? Do you value bet Kx on the river?
I'm just not sure how many bluffs other than QTs start firing the flop into four players...he's not playing a hand like AJdd like this, surely? Dunno, bit of a stream of consciousness but I'm getting wedded to a fold
