4 8 8 16 common spot-turn raise with overpair or TPGK
Want to calibrate myself in this fairly common spot. Understand board texture plays a role, I am trying to keep this low level.
We have all been there, open with big pair or broadway Ax, 2-3 callers, 3-4 BB pre.
Flop hits our A or is under our big pair, we c bet, say 1 or 2 callers, some draws are present or not. They may be chasing 2p, a draw or slowplaying their set. 4-6 BB
Turn is whatever, maybe a draw hits or they could have the 2p, or their set. We bet, they raise or they CR us from the blinds. Now there is 7-9 BB in the pot-
1. They have hit their draw or have a set and we are essentially drawing dead.
2. They have hit their 2p. With an overpair easier to call and see river as we are not possibly sharing a card.
3. Other possible but unlikely scenarios at these stakes.
In bigger pots I will generally see the river, but these middling pots I feel like I call too often, esp. with an overpair and uncoordinated/non flushy board.
Alot of regs that know me will check back river(8/16 less so) unless they have monster because MUBSY(or they like me whatever) so I get to see their cards by calling 1 turn bet and get info-seems like they always have it. At 8/16 I will generally fold to a river bet UI except against certain types.
4 Replies
It’s really hard to answer this question in a vacuum without knowing the specific cards and flop action. Here are some questions worth considering:
1. Are there plausible two pair/set combos that villain could have? How many? (This is a function of preflop ranges - sometimes you can rule out or discount specific combos because villain elected not to fold and not to 3bet.).
2. Do villain’s plausible two pair combos share a card with yours? (For example, on an A278 board, will villain raise with 78?)
3. Has villain raised after someone called in between? Raises in protected pot situations are almost always stronger.
4. Are there any plausible pair+draw combos villain might be raising with? (For example, even at 8/16, villains with AXs might raise an ace-high board if they turn a flush draw.). Do you block any of those combos?
5. Have you ever seen villain check the river after raising the turn?
6. Does villain tend to fast play strong hands or wait until the turn? Does a turn raise signal that his hand improved?
This is not exhaustive, but these are the sort of questions you should be asking yourself when you’re deciding whether to fold, call and fold river UI, or call down.
Thanks smitty you are always offering help. yea I get "its complicated"
I guess what I am running up against is "general population' of 4/8 and 8/16 players who are ignoring (1.) bc they are well, 4/8 and 8/16 players. I see blinds calls with ATC so turns bring stupid 2Ps on a regular basis.
(2.) yes they will. and they could have any ax 2P
3. Raises with an in between call almost always are monsters
4. I am very aware of these scenarios....good point
5. Little or no history with a lot of these players, "general population"
6. at my stakes almost no one fast plays strong hands.
In general I have felt I am paying off unknowns too much when the action at these stakes is a screaming red flag.
Infinitely complicated question. Yes, as a general rule players call down against strength from passives way too frequently at low limit. But you gotta be sure in big pots.
On obvious straight and flush boards it's easy to lay down a pair, on dry boards if you're up against two pair you can always win with counterfeiting. There are times where it's obvious you're up against a set.
Just need to know the game and the opponents and it's much easier to make the correct decision. And sometimes the correct decision turns out to be wrong.
I think a lot of what has been said so far is good, and I would add that when you call turn after getting check/raised or raised in position in a medium sized pot, you’re going to be expecting to lose a lot of the time. If you only ever call when you’re ahead, you’re going to be giving up a lot of equity. So the baseline here should be losing a lot of hands overall.
That being said, you also have to be aware of where the hand is in your overall range. Can you have a lot of better hands in this spot? Are there going to be a lot of marginal turn bets that are going to be folded off? Can a player ever be raising a worse hand than you for value? Is a player capable of semi-bluffing? Does he just call with a lot of hands that beat you, fearing that you have a monster? Is the nuts on the board obvious and within their range? Does he only ever raise with the nuts? Is he doing anything out of the ordinary that players generally do when they have monster hands?
Lastly, I suppose you are probably already doing this, but I find it helpful to plan on the flop what my plan is on certain turns that can change the nuts and which turns are bricky that might make you suspicious of someone coming in for a x/r. You should sort of also know who in the hand is not messing around when they x/r and an idea of what they are continuing with so you can make the right decision when it happens. Having a plan before the next street comes out is one of the best ways to improve your game.
