Top pair with AKo in the CO on a bad turn

Deeper I would probably check back turn pretty often as getting check raised would be nasty. Looking at your spot, it seems like villain has only 175 left on the turn? I'm actually torn between betting small (50$) and not folding to a shove, vs just shoving ourselves. Not really expecting villain to ever fold a worse A to the shove, I guess pair plus gutters might fold. I think I'm betting $50 to setup like .6 spr on the river. Open to having my mind changed.

I'd go slightly larger to $40 preflop in order to offer poorer 8:1 IO since we'll have to stack off pretty much always with TP postflop in what will be a small SPR pot.

SPR is 4 and we've got TPTK so I pretty much consider myself committed. If board was drawy I'd PSB the flop to shove the turn but it looks like we've sized for 3 streets on a non-drawy board, so fine.

I mean, yeah, kinda crappy runout so far as now KQ/AJ/AT have all gotten there and we're kinda mostly targetting AQ. Board is more drawy now (he could have Axss) and I still feel sorta committed. Think I'd continue with the commitment plan, although it's more borderline now. At higher SPRs I'd definitely consider slowing down at this point.

A bigger prefop 3bet size would have created a much more trivial postflop spot, and to me that's a crucial element in a typical smaller stacked LLSNL game.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The hand continues (delayed by work):

V opens 10 in HJ. Hero to 30 with AdKc in CO. V calls.

Flop (52): AhJs7c

V checks. Hero 35. V calls.

Turn (122): Ts

V checks. Hero? Hero checks back.

River: Kh

V bets 40. Hero?

Call. You beat value for this size. If you raise you can't get called by worse. Don't fold.

So a four-liner to the straight? Dumb spot as we can easily have Qx and most players don't bet worse into four-liners. Looks like a very value please-don't-fold bet, although not impossible for it to be a I-don't-know-what-to-do-with-worse-two-pear blocking bet. Are we good 20% of the time? Against a tight/weak player?

GcluelessdumbspotnoobG

I sigh call river, we need like 20% and its hard for this to be a huge mistake given the action. But equally by description this guy has AQ/KQs/QJs/QTs 90%+ of the time. The reason I still can't fold is because the unknown spaz factor.

I would have bet turn. AP, Folding the river is probably best - we have a bluff catcher and V probably underbluffs. I don't think worse value bets for a "tight weak" player. Though if you paid off the Qx I don't blame you. It's an area of my game I've been working on, I've paid off plenty of nits in case they are spazzing this one time - they aren't.

I think checking the turn has put you in an impossible situation. That show of weakness allows villain to take a stab like this, but as a tight player this could also be value.

There’s simply no way to know if villain would bet-fold here. My guess it’s a queen, but you never put pressure on him, so it’s just a guess.

Probably bigger pre, but definitely betting 100 on the turn. I think I want a call and people call more often to simple bets. If I wanted a fold, I’d bet 98 or 112 or something similar. Does anyone else see this pattern where villain calls 50 more often than 47 or 53 - I got no proof.

By betting the turn, you keep the story going that ‘I have the best hand sir’ and you keep villain on the defensive. I think you win in this game on offense and you need a real reason to back down. Lot of good things happen if you bet the turn, including villain folding that queen. You can check-back the river, but not the turn.

Everyone is like ‘what if he 3bets’?
1st, not much 3betting at 1/3 - nothing to be afraid of.
2nd, if you do get 3bet, you fold - it’s a classic example of fold to aggression at low limits. There’s no guess work here.

As played, nobody can fold here, but you’re just giving villain forty dollars.