KK in a scared-money nitfest — flop/turn strategy question

You said the pool is nitty players who massively fold to aggression yet you think the V calls a 6x 3! with 65s? Does he open A4s UTG and call a 3! with that hand? It feels unlikely.

He also stabs when checked to in the relevant HH, so this could be what is happening here. I think he raises all the strongest hands he has on the flop.

With KK, I think I just put it in. You beat all over pairs except AA. And you give worse odds to random flush draws he might have (although I don’t think there are too many).

You see the set you're worried about sometimes, but I think this is often 99-AA happy to see a bunch of low cards. And it's not often broadway diamonds that picked up a fd. Sometimes it's A4, but really: is a rec/nit opening that UTG?

H beats more lesser OPs than not, V'll fold everything when pushed, except stuff that crushes H, and may continue firing on a safe river. So I don't see a reason to raise here. Put them in on all but the worst rivers (A/4 etc), ofc.

You’re right.. he shouldn’t actually have A4s/65s much. So it’s primarily 66/55 and maybe 22.

Shove turn. Wet board and about 27% pot behind. If he folds, he folds. If you are beat, you are beat.

Maybe. But his bet also makes some sense with Jack's tens queens....

He doesn't think anyone has the straight. But he is making a small bet to protect against hands like AK or AQ.

You can't worry too much if you are beat here with a big pair.

Again, he would have to be opening these hands UTG and then calling a 6x 3! with these…I’d have a hard time thinking those pairs call your 3!

I could see it being like 99/TT.

I think a fold is out of the question with this sizing. With the pot odds being offered, even if we check folded every time on the river we will be good often enough when river checks through to call the turn bet. Not that I'm advocating for doing that.

I think the question is whether to call or jam. Many overpairs 77-QQ check back river, but possibly call a jam now. With flush draws he'll definitely put the money in when he hits, but it's hard to say how often he will bluff when he misses. Of course if he has a straight or set (seems relatively unlikely) he likely puts in the money either way.

On balance I think I just jam. Try to get value from worse overpairs. Make him call or fold now if he has a flush draw. Avoid a situation where you get bluffed off of the best hand on the river. If you're beat it's basically a cooler given this preflop configuration where the board shouldn't hit his range very often. Sometimes low stakes players make a bad preflop call and then get rewarded for it, but in the long run your kings will perform great here.

If the Villain can have any hand that made a straight, he can probably also have some nut flush draws. I would actually just jam myself instead of check/jam. I would assume this hand is an exception to the scared-money vibe you’re talking about because more than 10% of the stacks went in preflop.

Also just a general adjustment note. Many low stakes players want to adjust to this type of game by betting smaller to get called when they have the nuts. That's not the best way to approach playing against scared money players.

The best way is to bluff them often with big bets, and also bet big when you have it. This forces them to call you sometimes. If they keep folding you'll just print with your bluffs.

I think that villain with 44 displays this action.

The turn is problematic, because if he wanted you to go away, why doesn’t he just jam.

I think you have a good question from a strategic perspective. IDK the answer & look forward to seeing other replies…

Should a one pair hand pot control or pressure draws on a low wet board?

On the one hand, keeping the pot small with a one pair hand makes sense, because when a lot of money goes in 1Pair is beat.
On the other hand, if you don’t charge the draws, they can rise up and beat you.

I think I would bet smaller flop and continue small on the turn. I hate checking turn because
V knows this board is good for his range and will likely stab. It tells you nothing.

I agree that people won’t stab on the flop, but I think the turn is a different story. Personally, I have had a lot of success floating the flop, betting pot on the turn when v checks and getting folds. But as you have noticed, the small turn bet looks like he wants a call in this situation.

So, how sick it is to have a way ahead or way behind hand with KK? I don’t know anything you could do to make it less of a guess at this stage. Can’t help here, as I probably guess wrong.

You are the one who is scared money. Just bet the turn and as play check/shove the turn. You can't worry about what he might have. If the flop came high cards, you would be worried about a high set.

The only reason to check the turn is to check/raise. Personally, I bet the turn w/ the intension to gii. You have KK. If he shows up with a better hand it's a cooler. Start 3betting even bigger..

I hope you didn't fold it like you did AA in the 4-bet pot with less than pot behind in the other thread!

Results:

I did fold 🙈

Don’t wanna pay these nits off.

Nothing worse will call a shove tho.

You've got to start ranging your opponents better and not just playing the board. How many hands raise UTG, then call a big 3-bet that have a 4 in them?

List them and think about it from your opponent's perspective.

I probably call because it could be a worse overpair, but I don't think it's the worst fold ever. It's probably a set. (Yes a set would call the 3bet, imo, people love flatting 3bets with pairs.)

To critique an earlier street, I would never bet 50 into 70. It's a pretty dry board (doesn't look that way, but it is given ranges) and it's a 3bet pot. You should bet about 1 third pot, like 22-25$. You could even just bet below 1/3 and go 20$. Don't make it less than 1/4 though.

This is also one of the few spots where worrying about balance against weak players isn't crazy because it is kinda noticeable if you play 3bets pots inconsistently. Probably still doesn't matter, but it's conceivable someone pays attention. Anyway and since a lot of people just fold their hands to the first bet, you probably want to stab for less than this with your misses. So just bet 1/3 pot by default. If he just calls you can still play for stacks by the River.

Pot odds are still a thing. You've got to call 55 for a pot that's 225. If you call that's 55/280, which means you only have to be good 1 out of 5 times. If you folded the river every time, it should still check through often enough to make the turn call profitable.

Sometimes it's good to go back to the basics and just think about the math.

Also, just so I'm clear I'm not necessarily advocating for a call. Just trying to explain why you can't fold.

Maybe you can do a video on how to check/fold big pairs in reraised pots to 1/3 pot turn bets! You did almost the same thing with AA in the other thread, but there you checked both the flop and turn after 4-betting preflop and it was 3 ways. If there are broadway cards, you are beat by a set. On a low connected board, you are also beat.

Grunch:

PRE - raise size seems standard. Still think we can go a smidge bigger, like $35.

FLOP - think we can check. Don't hate a c-bet. Not sure about sizing.

If we're just range betting I'd think we'd want to go smaller. If we're not range betting I guess a larger size is correct, but I'd think we could go pot or even a slight over-bet. Betting $50 into $70 wouldn't seem to do much other than funnel him into a stronger continue range.

TURN - I actually think this is mostly just a brick. V opened UTG. His range isn't weighted towards 4X. I'd be more concerned about him having flopped 2P or even a set and slow playing because we bet so big.

I don't hate checking to let V stab at it. But I think we can just barrel for around 1/2 pot.

Never folding to this turn bet.

His bet looks like a weak bluff attempt. Don't want him getting away on brick rivers. Think we can just jam it in and feel pretty good about it.

Yes, I realize it's a nitty game. But V doesn't sound like he's all that nitty, and his line looks FOS to me.

Jesus.

Have you gotten any reveals after you've made these insanely tight folds with AA and KK?

Adding to what I posted in one of your other threads, your hand histories share a pattern of you playing tight pre, fast playing premium PP's on the flop by betting big, and then getting scared when the board runs out "bad" for you. It's like you're always hoping to just take it down on the flop, and don't know what to do if they call your big c-bet. You get lost, and don't know how to range them, so you over-fold.

But what are the good run-outs when we have AA/KK? What cards do you think are safe? Why do I think you'd see sets or better everywhere, on any turn and river?

Consider widening your pre flop range to include some hands that can make better than an over-pair on a lot of boards, and using smaller c-bet sizes, or just checking from OOP.

🙈🙈🙈 next time I’ll jam these and get snapped by sets.. fair?

Just fold AA and KK preflop! Don't put more money in by reraising with them when you will need to check/fold to 1/3 pot turn bets.

He did get a reveal in the AA hand he 4-bet AA, got 2 callers with 2/3 pot behind. Checked the flop and check/folded to a 1/3 pot turn bet and call. The river was checked through. The board was KxxJx, obviously giving someone a set. However, the 3-bettor won with QQ unimproved.