Turning trips into a xjam bluff on the river?
Live 5/5 NLHE
Hero: BB Jh2c (~$1.3k effective)
Villain: UTG, older ABC “turbo nit” I’ve played with for
Flop overbet does sort of set up river bluff. You are representing deuces full or quad deuces Q2/T2/22. You should never have checked TT/QQ preflop.
Maybe the coach can explain flop bet. Seems like burning money. Unless you hit a miracle card, you never can continue. Continuing to bluff the wet board OOP with air is bad.
We are building a pot for a profitable bluff on later streets is basically the short answer about the flop bet, if we don’t get raised we can rule out most of the 2p+. Its a small investment to try getting it heads up and we have amazing card removal with this exact hand. Half the deck can either improve our hand or turn good equity and if we get called in multiple spots its time to shut it down unimproved. Another option is to go for the check raise on the flop if there is a small stab and at least one caller, I think that is fine too, but makes it rather unprofitable to bluff later if the flop checks through.
@OP - Would very much appreciate getting your response / thoughts about a few things, to help me improve how I think about the game and opponents / spots like this...1. Do you think you lost some value with your turn sizing, given how disguised your hand strength is? If the river is just a brick, and you check, do you think he ever stabs at it with his missed draws, or goes for
1. Yes we lost some value with the turn size, overbetting would be much better. Anywhere from 100-150 seems appropriate.
2. Yes I’m targetting a range fold. I think block betting can get called by worse and is a viable line on the river, I just don’t feel as comfortable going for the b/3b as a bluff so I would be bet/folding if I did block. This player type is not raising unless they have a boat even vs a micro bet Im not confident his flushes will raise. Its close between block/fold and check. The nice thing about checking is we get the most information about the strength of his hand this way. If he comes out and bets very large we can just fold vs taking a unprofitable bluff spot against nut flush or better. And no I don’t think this player is capable of calling off a 9 high flush on the river for this size, but I think they will sometimes get curious if we go 700-800.
3. It looks like I have a boat or quads… this is a very common line regs will take with these hands when the flush comes in they check jam the river trying to get called by a flush. I wouldnt do this vs a pro.
1. Yes we lost some value with the turn size, overbetting would be much better. Anywhere from 100-150 seems appropriate.2. Yes I’m targetting a range fold. I think block betting can get called by worse and is a viable line on the river, I just don’t feel as comfortable going for the b/3b as a bluff so I would be bet/folding if I did block. This player type is not raising unless
Interesting. Thanks for the response.
I somewhat intuited that your preference for an all-in jam vs a smaller x/r size was because he could find some calls with 9Xhh.
Expanding on your river checking range - if we only have check-folds and check-raises, why would he even bet, if he's just going to fold to a x/r?
It only makes sense if he thinks you might x/r for a smaller size when you're bluffing, or he thinks that you'd have some check-calls, and I can't figure out what those would be.
Would you ever actually take this line with thick value against him? I'm just wondering if he'd call a bigger bet than the one he made when you checked. Can he find a fold if you barrel for $300-$350? Does he fold if you 2x pot it?
I'd think you'd be repping super-thin for value if you barreled on this river card, in this line, and he'd have a hard time folding 9Xhh after you limp in pre and over-bet the flop / pot turn.
If you're repping boats / quads when you go for the x/r, then I'd think when you barrel it looks like you either have exactly A2hh or you're going kamikaze with QT, assuming you'd have raised AJhh pre.
I dunno. It's just hard for me to figure out how he wants to bet-fold top of range. I'd think he'd either want to check it back, or bet-call, if he's going to go this thin, and knows you're capable.
We are building a pot for a profitable bluff on later streets is basically the short answer about the flop bet, if we don’t get raised we can rule out most of the 2p+. Its a small investment to try getting it heads up and we have amazing card removal with this exact hand. Half the deck can either improve our hand or turn good equity and if we get called in multiple spots its ti
I don't think bluffing with air is good on a wet board. There are two broadway cards and a 2-flush. You are OOP and haven't seen what the others will do. If it was a drier board and they checked to you in position, then maybe OK to bluff with the plan to barrel.
I see your point about turning equity, but you have bottom pair, and a backdoor straight draw and a backdoor nonnut flush draw. Others could have OESDs, flush draws, 2 pair, etc. on this kind of board.
Reading this I have to be impressed with your reasoning. I like to pot the flop as everyone calls the small sizes, but when they call a big size they usually cap themselves. Representing strength early is so helpful in reading villains and in navigating later streets.
I questioned the river jam, but I think it was the best (exploitative) play as he probably does call with the smaller size. It’s a heck of an exploit as even though they know I’m tight, my villains are not likely folding a flush. My villains are like - why do I even play this game if I hit my hand on the river and fold.
It just seems reckless to me to bet so much. It’s a lot to risk for so little to gain. You would have got me to fold, but most of the players I play with would never fold here.
Maybe I’m wrong - in the back of my mind I have always thought that if I jammed instead of folding, in most situations I would take the pot down over half the time.
Maybe that’s enough to be profitable?
