Facing a block bet on a dynamic river and we are feeling like sending it

I don't think jamming a flopped SFD impairs your image, FWIW. Except if you like being thought of as a nit.

Anyway, I see what you're thinking here. What do you think a tight player raises a limper with, then calls closing the action in middlish position? Something in the 88-JJ(QQ?)/AJs+, AQo+(?) range? SPR is around 4 with a call, so it can't be too speculative.

Do they fold two overs and no FD to the cbet? Assuming they float, at the river, H is 35.4% vs the above. If they fold their overs w/o FD/BDFD/Ad or Ac, H is like 13%. V is offering H 17.8% to call, so I guess it's not a huge mistake to do so?

I'd have to think even a tight V bets more than ~25% if their draw came in. Also thinking H doesn't x-b turn with an OP. And the H that backshoved a 15-out flop draw isn't content to take a free card on a double FD turn with SPR ~2 to see if they bink.

If they're that tight, maybe they'll interpret a raise to...200-250 as a "Please call me!" bet, where a jam just looks bluffy?

Tough decision. Leaning raise. Expecting to be shown later in thread that it's a bad idea. Oh, and bet/folding turn 140-150 or so. Denying fd odds, looking like a concerned OP, that sort of thing. Seriously doubt they've 2P. Doubt T9 hung around or called the 3! Maybe T9dd? Maybe 88-66 did, but I think H hears from those earlier.

Well, villain does have some busted draws, some sets, 2pairs, overpairs.
I think it's hard for villain to find a call vs a raise without a 9 but it's also hard for hero to rep much besides bdfd.

Villain also isn't folding for any size with a 9x.

If we do raise, if we just want to fold his busted draws/overpairs, just minclick it or whatever. If we want to fold also his sets/2pairs portion then we need to pump it up to at least 250-300. Jamming only runs into 9x imho. If you think he doesn't have much 9x(99,89) then I think jamming is fine.

I think a fold is also ok. Live to fight another day.

After the check on the turn, and with your image, I don't think anything gets through here.

I bet bigger on the flop or check. After a flop call, I'm done with the hand.

Yeah, I think the range you have given here is close to accurate, though I would guess villain folds AQo. Think QQ and AK are pure calls, never 4bets.

It's hard to say what (if anything) folds to the cbet, which is why I think my flop sizing and turn checkback might be kinda bad. Think I would rather xb flop or bet bigger, and as played probably should have barreled.

I agree that I don't think villain ever has a flush when he bets $65. Maaaybe he has a 9, but I doubt it. I agree that sets are likely to raise flop or lead turn (AKA the nit check-raise) so I was putting villain on small overpairs, some two pairs, some AK-type bluffs, and maybe a sliver of 9x.

Appreciate the feedback and thoughts on raise size from you and dango.

EDIT: Also, I do like being thought of as a nit, or at least as someone who "always has it." I think (at least in my games) that being able to generate fold equity is more important than being able to get paid, though I am open to hearing the opposing argument.

Thanks. One thing I have noticed at $1/$2 (I am a relative newcomer to the bigger stake) is that players rarely seem to fold to river raises after they have bet small. Not sure if players are consciously "betting small to induce" or just overly aware that an aggro player will interpret their sizing as weakness.

As a default the population doesn’t value bet thinly enough, so without any reads I heavily discount V making this bet with an overpair trying to target our A highs.

So if we don’t think V has a pair, and we don’t think his flushes bet this size, V is left with 99/9Ts (maybe A4s?) and a ton of broadway diamond draws. So I actually think we can just call this bet.

doubt a better hand folds

dont think flop is mandatory cbet and this sizing feels off to me

doesnt look too bad from ev standpoint when i sim it (around breakeven) but it relies on oop block / folding sets and 2p at high clip which i doubt. also think you aren't perceived to have many flushes here when u x back turn (even if you do, solver thinks we got a straight 8% and a flush 12% but i think you just always get put on like AcKx or random bluff here)

Against a good player, I would assume this bet is a value bet with an uncapped range knowing that inducing a raise is worth more than getting a call of a slightly bigger bet.

Against a decent player, I would assume this is a big hand that is afraid that a bigger bet can’t get called.

It’s down to your read on this guy’s skill level but I would not assume the small bet is weakness.

Appreciate the insight. I think some villains will block the river not necessarily because they are targeting my weak range for value, but because they are afraid to check and face a larger bet. They want to set a price for a cheap showdown. Or, at least, that is what I was hoping when I was thinking about raising...

Interested to see you, and now another poster, suggesting to call, but it makes sense because the bet is so small. I do think smaller bets are more likely to be bluffs in my games.

Makes sense, thanks for looking. I agree that a lot of villains won't buy that I have a flush in this spot, but I genuinely would play some AXcc and some pair plus club draw this way. I also think I could find the raise with all 9X given that villain's sizing doesn't look like a flush. But again, that probably makes it a really good spot to raise for value and a much less good spot to raise as a bluff.

I dunno, I feel like I see way more of "bet size equals hand strength" than anything else, at least at in my games. I also feel like players get particularly greedy in these spots with flushes and maybe even T9 because they imagine that they can cooler smaller straights.

But, as I said before, I have gotten called after raising this spot again and again at $1/$2, so even if villain has a hand like 2p it doesn't mean he will actually fold it, as submersible said.

Is bluff-catching not an option here?

He bet 1/4 pot. We have to be right 1/5 of the time. Hard to imagine what value hands he's betting for this size.

If we don't think he's bluffing, then just fold. But seems like this is going to be an over-bluffed spot.

It's hard for me to imagine how opponents will respond in this spot because I don't really play the hand this way.

That being said bet flop, check back turn is one of the most common give up lines. I expect our opponent will be stabbing river a lot with air. I also don't think they will expect us to check back turn with a flush draw, even though in theory we should be. We have no relevant blockers.

All things considered I think I would prefer calling over bluff raising. Low stakes players don't tend to value bet thinly enough and there are plenty of potential flop floats/missed draws that would be stabbing now. I don't think you're ever getting a 9 to fold with a raise, and your line raising river looks suspect so I would expect to get hero called a lot by hands worse than a straight.

Exploitatively I think I would have preferred a small flop bet followed by a large turn bet (like pot or larger, ideally big enough to fold out flush draws). We recently had another similar thread and my takeaway was that people are massively over folding on these 2 flush draw boards. If you bet small on the flop they will often raise their absolute best hands. If he only calls flop the turn barrel will likely be profitable. If he calls again on the turn and checks river you can check back, and still beat all the missed draws. Recognize though that if you play your hand this way you are MASSIVELY over bluffing the turn, so you are really counting on your opponent over folding.

Against better competition I would mostly be taking a passive line, playing for cheap showdown or giving up. Basically play AK with no backdoors for the weak showdown hand that it is.

Was thinking this too but I'm also the perfect target group for these small-ish river bets because I look for reasons to call, probably incorrectly most of the time.

FWIW, I call before I shove.

Expanding on my earlier post with a few more thoughts...

First, they always put us on AK, and as a result they tend to over-bluff whenever the board is bad for AK.

Second, we barely bet 1/3 pot on the flop, and then we checked back the turn. The flop wouldn't seem to favor us as the 3B'er, so if he floats a lot, he gets to the river with most or all of his pre-flop range, which is likely an insanely large number of hands.

Third, V was the original raiser. This board wouldn't seem to favor him all that much. Even if he gets to the river with a super wide range, there wouldn't seem to be very many hands that want to bet for a small size, when we could have a straight or a BD flush draw that checked back the turn. I'd think he would mostly just bet flushes, and he'd go larger than 1/4 pot.

All of the above would lead me to want to bluff catch here.

The only thing pushing in the other direction is thinking that he may bet small with thick value because we checked back the turn, making him think we've got a weaker range, especially if he thinks we'd barrel with our draws. We're mostly guessing about how he's ranging us, and what size he'd use based on that range.

Raising as a bluff is interesting, but I generally avoid it when this player type bets the river. They don't like folding when they're playing tight and take an aggressive action. Can't say I blame them, when we look FOS, raising river on the BDF card after checking back the turn. This is a spot where I am generally going to have it when I raise.

So, I think we can call. I also think it's okay to fold, because I don't know if this V is bluffing enough on this board, and I don't think he'd fold enough if we raise.

Responding to the feedback about your line leading to the river...

I don't hate the range bet on the flop. But if you do that I think you need to barrel turn for a huge size, and if he calls you have to give up on most rivers.

Alternatively, check back the flop and size up with a delayed c-bet if he checks again on the turn. It's a little harder to be balanced in this line as opposed to range betting flop. We can't check back AK and c-bet AA/KK.

Either way, in either line, I think a big turn bet makes the river easier for us and harder for him. If he donks it's a pretty trivial fold. If he checks, we're mostly giving up when we range bet the flop, and mostly firing a big bet when we checked back the flop, even when every draw gets there.

My view on checking back the flop is that it smashes villain’s range. Period

If he checks again on the turn, he can’t be too happy with his hand, but I’m not too happy with our hand either.

As played, I see this all the time - villain backed into a hand - what it is doesn’t matter because everything beats us - easy fold

AK is a bluffing hand, but it fails often even when conditions are good. It’s hard to know if you went with brute force bet flop, bet turn v may have folded.

I really dislike bet flop, check turn line
Because you did this… we now have doubts as to whether villain is stabbing the river. He is, but he still beats us.

It’s almost never a good move to fold AK preflop, but postflop you often have to let it go

i think calling the river is torching fwiw. really doubt people choose this size as a bluff

I can confirm I bluff this size at exactly this sort of spot, so at least someone does. I also bet a lot of thin value hands along with some nutted hands looking to induce. I'm pretty much targeting ace high with both value bets and bluffs after turn checks through.

Against a lot of players I think a fold is reasonable, but we only have to be good 17.5% so he doesn't have to be bluffing often.

What are you possibly repping with a river bluff? 99?

Every 9 will call and so will clubs. Don't think it's worth it.

I checkback turn with some A-high clubs and some combo draws with clubs. 99 is also a possibility.

As I said in previous posts, I didn't think that villain ever had a 9 or clubs when he bets 1/4 pot. Other posters here aren't as sure, which is helpful feedback.

This was my thought as well. I generally like bluffcatching after betting flop small and checking back turn, but I would expect villain to bet at least $100 (maybe $85 or $90 I guess) with air. Maybe there is a slight chance that he has the same hand and we chop, but I think there is an equally likely chance that he is randomly stabbing with something like A5s and we get absolutely owned by calling.

Posting results behind the spoiler tag.

A set??? Jesus. I'd like to know which one. Guessing 66 that turned it, was going for the x/r, and hates the 7c river.

Nice play. Good luck finding a dump truck big enough for your balls.