1/3 Hijack 55 - no fish this time

Stick it in?
On such a wet board, is utg really coldcalling w/ sets?
Co has alot of draws, some 2 pairs some sets

It's probably best to make a sad fold pre-flop here. It's a big raise and there are good players behind you who can/should squeeze.

As played, looks like a straight forward jam. The board is very wet and there is a lot of money in the pot.

If you're sitting at the table and can't identify the fish... (just messing with ya)

We went set mining and hit our set, jamming is like $365 more into a $420 pot? We should be ahead right now a lot. Is CO flatting with JJ pre? I would expect a studied and aggressive LAG to squeeze JJ always. Maybe he flats with 99, though his LAG union membership might be questioned at the next meeting. So CO should be weighted toward J9 and high equity draws. J9s, QTs, KTs, T8s, 87s, 76s should all be in his range more than 99 or JJ.

For UTG, after a raise and reraise, I can't imaging calling with JJ or 99. I think he has a reasonable draw more often than not and can't really fold any draw if we jam and CO calls. He could also have overpairs - QQ-AA are still in his range and have a really tough decision where jamming is punting but folding to what could be a semi-bluff from the CO is gross.

So jam.

This is exactly the same as your flopping a baby flush thread. Exactly. You played 55 to set mine in hopes of stacking an opponent, same as flopping a flush with 65s. You can't play a hand to set mine and then not stick it all in when you hit.

Jam.

Pre is a punt, you are getting exploited hard by him using a 5x open by having any flatting range here

Don't make the mistake of thinking whatever happened postflop is the important thing here

From your comments I likely messed this up.

Hero calls
(420) 5h9sJs (Ks)
UTG check, Hero check, CO jams 365,
UTG tanks and folds
Hero?

Preflop is the only play in most 1/3 games. They may seem like good players, but they flat called. You likely get it multiway like this.

Flop is very wet. I would play for a x/r, and think leading is a mistake.

As played, shove turn.

As played, call river. You are 23% against a straight or flush and getting good pot odds. 2% against a higher set. However, you are crushing anything else, so have odds to call.

preflop can be a spicy 3bet sometimes. Keeps the remaining players off our backs and exploits UTG who isnt always going to be nutted. Plus 3betting is just good for the game. At first I wanted to check flop to let someone monkeystab but you say they're all strong players so it might get checked through too often so I actually prefer the lead. As played OTTF it seems like they all want to get it in so screw it, just jam and let them hang themselves. Probably up against overpairs and flush draws.

As played OTT I have no idea, just weird weird weird spot. I mean never folding of course but just check and see who thinks they are really 'pot committed' with their draw no matter what it is and hope for the best. I mean at least 1 of them cant fold anyway so jamming seems fine too. Really dont want to let A4hh get there for free.

3-betting preflop is good with some hands, but horrible with this one. We want to play it 4 ways and it plays poorly in a 3-bet pot.

Turn may be a shove initially, but it is yucky. Not shoving the flop on the wet board was a huge mistake.

Hero folds…

Bottom set, no spade, block nothing
Can’t find any bluffs, but lots of value with straights and flushes.

My hand looks strong, but my line was weak and the population massively underbluffs in this situation. How can a reg not have it shoving into the best player in the game on a wet board.

I made a disciplined fold, but it felt awful mucking a set face down and not seeing villain’s hand. Immediately second guessing myself. This is one of those hands where I shouldn’t tell anybody.

I might have saved money by not jamming myself, but the board could have paired too.
Maybe the odds were there, but as I watched UTG tank & fold, I decided that was my best move also.

I don't like the fold because you are 23% against a flush or straight and you are putting in 32% of the money. As I mentioned, you are 2% against a set. However, you are a huge favorite against anything else, so you have odds to call. I know it is hard to throw in another 365 knowing you are probably drawing to 10 outs.

Not 3! shoving the flop was a big mistake. Make the draws call allin or fold.

I can only assume there must be some massive whales at this table cuz right now it looks like we're maybe the 4th best player (at best) here, so it's going to be tough to make money otherwise. No other better tables running?

I fold preflop. Setmining really requires very multiwayness to be profitable, imo, so we really need some other calls first (or a crapload of initial limps from non-LRRy players) to consider calling. On top of that we have a potential squeezer behind us (making flat/folding very expensive), plus the opener is a pro (if he was the biggest whale in the game then maybe flatting first in is somewhat defensible as our IO are huge, but our IO are extremely meh against a pro).

And I'm shipping to this action. Not exactly thrilled about it as pro could be sandbagging a bigger set here (everyone always seems to forget the massive RIO small sets have) but it is what it is at this point on this very drawy board with so much dead money relative to stacks.

ETA: Pretty craptastic turn card as it completes every draw. His jam into two opponents is extremely strong. Think it's probably a sigh fold at this point.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Twice now you've called a raise in the hopes of hitting a specific flop to stack an opponent. Twice now you've hit the perfect flop, twice now you've played it scared and then folded.

Let me say this again, you got exactly what you wanted and then folded.

This makes no sense, might as well just fold preflop if you're just going to fold the flop to pressure.

You have to call the turn shove as played. I agree that villain usually has a flush or straight. It is just pot odds. You aren't that far behind pot odds if he does, and you are a huge favorite against anything but a flush, straight, or set.

But how often does he show up with worse after taking this action against two players who could easily love this card? ETA: I'm horrible at the maths, but I'm guessing at these odds he has to show up with worse a lot more than he should be.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah dunno man. The flat pre, saying people are ''good pros'' playing 1/3, the flop flat followed by the turn fold. Gl.

You see the logic disconnect here? He can't both be studied, very aggressive and always have it in spot where there are still a lot of additional draws/ turn semibluffs.

That being said an easy heuristic is that on draw heavy boards you're usually better off raising flop with your sets/strongest hands. You've got to just get it in on the flop.

If you're going to fold when you hit what are you doing set mining?

Preflop should likely be a fold with aggressive players still to act.

This is 1/3. They are not that aggressive preflop. The likelihood is there will be a multiway single raised pot.

Sure there are plenty of passive games where a call to set mine is fine. That's why I qualified my statement with the IF.

OP said the CO was a good lag and button was a solid reg, but didn't give reads for SB and BB. Given the descriptions of the in position players though I would think there's an above average chance of a 3-bet for these stakes.

It is a 1/3 game and OP's idea of good players is probably different from yours. It is probably likely to go multiway. I agree this might be a fold preflop in a tough game.

Yeah you're probably right. I was sort of just trying to teach the OP to get in the habit of thinking about the factors that can turn small pocket pairs from +EV to -EV.

I know as I started moving up in stakes playing more 2/5 and 5/10 that was a huge leak I had for a while. I would play small pocket pairs in early position when the games were far too aggressive to play them profitably.

Yeah, I agree it is usually a preflop fold at 5/10.

I’m the first one to show up to play in the morning and open the first table. Could be an hour or two before the next one opens, so sometimes I sit with good players. So finding a better game is not helpful advice.

Takeaway
I knew I screwed up - thanks for telling me so.
I don’t play small pairs oop, but in late position sometimes. When both players called behind me, I knew I was in trouble and oop now, but I flopped a set.
If I’m going to play this hand, I should have raised pre to try to fold the players behind. Having played few hands so far, that would have been a better play with some fold equity.

In the future, I’ll probably fold small pairs more often. If I shoved flop, I ‘might’ have won. As played, I am very certain that I made a good fold. Does anyone know or can it be determined how often the board pairs on the river? That was my only hope.

I try very hard to use the early streets to set up easier decisions on later streets. There’s some truth to ‘if you’re going to set mine, you have to get it in when you hit’. But I just can’t think that way. As the hand develops, I make each decision and I will fold every time I think I’m beat.

In a way, there’s irony because I fold small pairs pre-flop more than any of you. A secret I play by is that any hand with a seven or lower will lose most of the time. I take this to heart, so I don’t always have great board coverage.

When I do get out of line, I bring my questions here, so maybe my play looks poor at times. I don’t care how you judge me, I don’t even know you, but I appreciate useful advice and discussion.

Have switched to tournament mode this week as I will play the WSOP Seniors on Sunday. Probably never understand why this is so exciting to me, but I can’t wait. Have a tendency to play all day, get knocked out around 200 when 150 gets paid or something similar, but someday I might get lucky.

Thanks to those who honestly try to help. I can tell who you are.

I don't agree with the takeaways. Don't agree it was a fold preflop at that 1/3 table. If you had shoved the flop, you probably would have gotten stacked, because the draw that hit would have called, but that would still have been by far the best play. You were likely may behind on the turn, but not sure it was a good fold with pot odds.