1/3 ~ we have nfd vs young aggro guy.

I'd be inclined to check back because:

1) We can expect V to bluff bricked rivers a decent amount. From his air, we make more checking and bluff catching river.

2) We probably aren't pushing V off of any value that beats us. 88-JJ is probably calling and I don't think we want to triple-barrel brick rivers.

3) We could get value from weaker draws, but V will bluff missed draws sometimes or better yet hit his flush and lead for value. So I don't think we lose a ton of value by checking back.

So I'm checking and looking to call most rivers.

Check back, keep his flushes in and don't get x/r off by QX EZPZ

I’m claiming the queen and betting 50 on the turn, this is how I roll. Love this semi-bluff and expect to take it down often. Looks like not scared of the queen, villain likely gives you credit.

I don’t think villain jams after what happened last time he tried against you. If he calls, probably have to hit the flush.

This is exactly the kind of villain that will try to bluff an old nit like me. Most people, know better. I don’t know your image, but it doesn’t matter, he’s folding unless he has a queen.

I’m not going for stacks in this situation as I have nothing, so I’m betting because he will fold. He’s not very smart if he calls without a queen.

I’m pretty good at adding to my redline with plays like this. The added strength of this play is occasionally hitting your hand and winning a big pot instead.

Solver people will have you tap dancing around, but this is my definition of aggression wins. I’ve been accused of brute force, but this is not an over-aggressive play. It’s taking advantage of the situation.

They will have you checking, but now if I’m the villain, I’ll claim the queen and take it from you on the river when you brick the flush.

In football coaching we used to think I can beat you with my players, but I could take your players and beat mine too. Yeah, it’s cocky, but I think I win this hand whether hero or villain.

We have a pure bluff catcher, we block the most obvious bluffs and worse, we lose to some hands he might think are bluffs, like 3xhh. If he was semi-bluffing with a FD on the turn, a lot of those hands are going to be Jx and just got there.

I really struggle to find bluffs we beat other than maybe 54s and you were laying a really good price OTT so it feels unnatural to x/r that and risk being against Qx that is happy to shovel the rest in. If I were x/r this turn as V, the hands I'd use hands that can very easily fold to a 3! like 3x, 6x, JTss. Or you want to block the Qx with hands like KJ/AJ/JT which all got there. I guess maybe 75 could play this way, but in HH V waited to improve to a double belly before starting to bluff. So is he really x/r with just a gutter? Maybe 75hh, but again that's uncomfortable to x/r into a range that is full of Qx and risk getting jammed on when getting a good price to realize equity with a junky FD.

I think the river is just a fold. It's really hard to find a hand we beat that calls flop and x/r turn that doesn't accidentally beat us. If we had AKcc/dd, maybe an argument could be made to call.

I think we have just enough showdown value to check back and look to bluff catch river. Our hand doesn't benefit very much from betting for protection or equity denial. It would suck to get check-raised off our equity. If we bet again, V isn't calling with many worse hands.

So, just check.

He x/r'd turn when top card paired, and barreled the river for a chunky size. I didn't read the prior hand histories, but I'd think this is going to be a very under-bluffed spot. And we only beat bluffs, so fold.

check the turn fold the river now lol

come up w a better turn strat

check flop sometimes, dont 3b if he xr

dont really understand why turn x/r surprises you esp when you bet extremely depolar size

from tone of thread you called and won but you have one of the worst hands you could take this line with and you block bluffs and minimal value

if those 2 hands are the only ones you've seen him play you are over reacting to his delay cbet and follow through

stop �� 3 betting �� flops �� with �� draws. A nfd is not a stock investment hoping it grows in value later. It only goes down in value until you get lucky. So many people confuse semi-bluffing with "if I get all the money in now I MIGHT win a big pot later"

As played barrel turn small to see if he really has a queen.

i mean qx is probably going to x/r turn >75% of the time when you take this size ott from a young aggro asian whos stuck. it seems odd to me that thats part of the justification for calling down but you think he is completely incapable of doing that here for value

b25 is obviously not preferred size here. i have no idea if it makes sense some at plo where so much of flop betting range is full on paired turns but i think its a poor strategy for nl that involves you getting to the river having put in basically no money with your value hands

i think jamming the river over a bet would be really bad with your combo and remaining stacks (i dont expect him to bluff pairs really or to fold qx), im not really sure why you think you lose to bluffs)

solver mostly supports everything i say although if i eliminate larger bet sizes it will find a barrel with this combo ott but i just dont really see the point of widening our betting range ott to include 6x / 77 type hands (what b25 is implying).

i think you have a meh call if you want on a brick when every straight draw / bdfd float misses if you wanted to, is not ideal blockers but you should beat all bluffs. also think you semi cooler his kx / ax on river when you hit and can either over flush / or have him bluff on a heart. solver will dislike but i think it works ok in practice

3b flop would be large error vs x/r too. i think you kind of have some gaps in your logic here thinking about the hand.

I'm fine with the hand to the turn.

I would check back the turn. I don't want to face a big check/raise and possibly have to consider folding with a lot of outs. Meanwhile our show of weakness will induce a bluff on the river a lot which I think we can probably snap off even UI.

ETA: Was our super small turn bet for the purposes of inducing? Because it certainly isn't for the purposes of folding better (like a small weak pear). I mean, I don't mind inducing against certain players (and this guy fits the bill) when I have a strong hand but our hand seems far too weak to want that. I guess if our plan was to induce that we have to follow up with a river call, but never excited about building this big a pot with this weak of hand.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Against an aggro player who we're expecting to check/raise the flop a lot, I'd have zero issues 3betting to setup a PSB turn shove at this stack size. We have decent hand equity against most hands and our line should generate massive FE.

Obviously would never take this line against the general population whose check/raise range is nutted.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I agree with most of the other posters that checking back turn would be best. If you are going to bet you have to bet bigger to have a chance of folding out pairs/better hands.

Think in terms of your range. You're likely going to want to barrel some of your flush draws and check back others. Since AK beats all Ax and has the most showdown value of any flush draw, it serves as a good turn check. You can likely exploitatively call river when you miss as aggro villains will over bluff after you show weakness.

I would rather barrel worse flush draws like JTs, T9s, etc that don't mind folding if you get check raised. Again I'm betting bigger to more credibly represent a Q, so if we do get raised it would be a much bigger percentage of our stack.

The other advantage of checking is you keep in worse flush draws that might fold if you barrel big on the turn.

As played I guess you have to call the turn raise you may have induced, then should likely fold river with negative blockers and the possibility he could be bluffing with a hand that beats you.