2-5 1100 effective

Grunch:

PRE - I'm assuming his 6x open size is big for the game. When someone does that, and we have AA, my 3B is going to be larger, as a hard exploit. You made it just over 4x, which isn't bad, but I think we could get greedy and make it $150, to set up a lower SPR and possibly make this a two street game post flop.

FLOP - V's 60% pot donk in a 3B pot on this board is weird. I wouldn't expect him to do this with 2P+ all that often, because I'd expect him to go for a check raise.

I think flatting and raising are both worth considering. The argument for flatting would be to let him continue betting worse. The argument for raising would be a hard exploit, when we believe he won't fold, and might 3B a worse hand, allowing us to easily get stacks in.

Being in position would push me to flat call. The board being so draw heavy would push me to raise now. It's pretty close, such that I think either decision is okay.

TURN - things start to get weird when the board becomes more connected and he bets a smaller portion of the pot. He went from 60% down to just under 45%. What does that mean?

Occasionally this is a nutted hand that is milking us for value. More often, I'd expect a made but vulnerable hand to size way up when the board is this wet. It would really help to know something about our V.

If all we know is middle aged white guy, I think it's possible he's milking us, or he's hedging with a worse value hand, like TT-KK, or he's just semi-bluffing with a draw. Really can't narrow his range all that much, though my default population read is that this isn't a nutted but vulnerable hand, like a straight.

We have less than a PSB left behind, I'd think we usually have the best hand, and I don't think V will fold very often, so I think the best play would be to jam here and now, before an action killing river.

Then again, if we think V might take this line with a flopped 2P or a set, and he won't fold those hands to a jam, then I think we can flat call and evaluate river.

RIVER - yuck.

There just isn't much we beat now, other than an absurdly over-played QQ/KK. I'd think he'd slow down and check QQ/KK when every draw gets there. QQ doesn't beat anything. KK only beats QQ. If he checks QQ, then we only beat KK.

Kind of impossible to find the intuitive bluffs in this line. I'm assuming he's not doing this with 5d5x or 54cc.

Do we have the Ad in our hand? Not sure how much it matters. He's probably not taking this line with AdXo all that often.

I hate it, but I think we should fold. If he shows a bluff, just tap the table and go walk around for a bit.

As others will mention a raise (somewhere) but especially on the turn is probably the play.

I tend to read people pretty well. For instance, how fast was he firing these bets? If they came without hesitation, I like getting it in, but if villain was thinking it through each street, I become more doubtful. I would have some kind of read on whether the flop helped him.

Personally, I would have had to raise the flop. You 3bet and villain throws out a disrespectful donk bet on a board he likely missed. If he raised preflop with 77, 33, or 88 would he donk a set or check to the raiser. IF YOU RETAKE THE INITIATIVE, THE PRESSURE STAYS ON HIM. If you don’t take control with aces, when do you?

JJ is a reasonable hand for villain, so we could be crushed. My initial thought of KK probably doesn’t ship it on this river. Too many possibilities better than a one pair hand.

I don’t think you can call now, but I think villain should be the one sitting there trying to decide what to do.

30 is not that big, for this game 20 or 25 is about standard. It is slightly big but not that large. The thing is one thing I do know about villain is he would have 4 bet or possibly shoved KK. I saw him get it all in with KK pre just a few hands before so I guess I know something about him. I also would expect someone with KK to never flat a 3 bet unless they are really really inept or we are really really shallow. I would argue that the only thing I beat on this board would be a QQ that was turned into a bluff or maybe a PP that did not hit a set that to me is diabolical given his betting action.

As for why I didn’t raise any street, I feel it would be odd for him to bet on all 3 streets without having hit a set. I already took KK out of his range already. I guess I was playing 5th street chicken with him. I assumed he might eventually slow down if he didn’t hit a set. Or he would slow down if say he did have QQ and the board made it so that no hand but a better one is calling his bet. The way he was betting I was already worried he might have had a set and by shoving I’m just going to get called and lose my stack to a set with an overpair.

I was already worried he might have hit a set. I feel like given the fact that I 3 bet and he only called took KK out of his range and so the only hands I beat are JJ and QQ which I felt would probably stop betting after getting called and would definitely not go all in on the river unless improved. I was trying to avoid being stacked by a set. I was playing 5th street chicken with him.

I do not think this villain would have just called with KK preflop so I take that out of his range.

He wasn’t firing the bets instantly but he was firing them relatively quickly. Like a couple of seconds then he would fire the bet.

If you're playing 5th Street chicken, then fold.

If you don't think he's capable, fold.

You don't really beat anything but a bluff, so fold.

I have a question, if this hand was played the same way and the river was a 2 and now the 4 to a straight was no longer in play would that push you to a call or does it still look too much like a set to you?

I started out thinking the $30 open was big for the game, making it more likely he has an over-pair to the board, and less likely he flopped or turned any 2P or sets. If the raise size is normal for the game, it may be more likely he has 2P or a set prior to the river.

But then we have to go back to the beginning of the hand and try to range him on each street:

PRE - normal raise size. From HJ in a 2/5 game, roughly 205BB's deep, it could conceivably be any PP, any suited connector, any Broadway combo, some suited gappers, etc.

But then we 3B from the BTN and he calls. We need to lop off the top of his range, like AA/KK, and the bottom of his range, like suited gappers. Maybe we eliminate QQ/AK if we think he 4B's those. Maybe we eliminate some of the lower PP's, some suited connectors, some of the trashy Broadway combos, etc.

FLOP - He's donking 60% pot on a wet and connected, two flush board. Why? Is he doing this rather than x/r'ing with 2P or a set? Is this the top of his pre-flop range, like TT or JJ and maybe QQ?

I wouldn't think many opponents are going to donk 60% pot with a draw, so I'd think this weights him towards 2P or a set, or some over-pair to the board that isn't AA/KK, and may or may not be QQ, but could reasonably be TT or JJ.

TURN - the 9h brings in JT and 65, if those hands are in either his range or ours. I'm assuming T6 isn't showing up here. It makes 99 a set. But instead of betting big, he bets around 45% pot. There's still a FDFD out there, so I'd think a straight, even with the re-draw to the flush, would size up.

So, now I'm thinking his range is starting to get weighted more towards 2P and sets that are concerned we might have a straight, and over-pairs that may be concerned we have a better over-pair.

Still, when we're the pre-flop 3B'er, I'd think he'd discount that we'd have very many straights here. We may not be 3B'ing JT or 65 pre. I don't think he'd slow down with 2P or a set, because we still have hands like AKdd in our range. So, it's starting to look more like an over-pair that he's turning into a semi-bluff.

It makes sense for JJ and TT - both over-pairs that pick up a straight draw on the turn. Otherwise, maybe he's struggling to figure out what to do with QQ that didn't 4B pre, and is rapidly getting lost on this run-out.

RIVER - If we think his range is mostly going to be TT-QQ, the only hand in that range that we can beat is QQ, and it's the one hand that doesn't make any sense to bet, since it literally beats nothing. 65, JT, TT, JJ, and AKdd all got there.

So, if the river is just a total brick, and he bets again, it would be more of a call, maybe. I say maybe because I'd think JJ and TT wouldn't necessarily bet again on the river. Maybe QQ bets, targeting our TT and JJ combos. In that scenario, I might be more concerned about him taking this line with sets or 2P.

It would also be interesting if the turn was a brick, and JJ/TT didn't pick up any additional outs. There again, when all the draws miss on the river, I'd be more likely to wonder if he has 88, 77, 87, or possibly even 33.

The line he's taken here is strange overall, because there aren't many, and maybe not any hands in range that make sense for every street. The huge flop donk looks like 2P or a set, not a draw. The river looks like a flush or straight draw that got there. The turn looks like he's not sure what his hand wants to do.

He either started out bluffing and got there, or he started out with thick value and now he's turning that into a bluff. Either way, we lose. Just a bad run-out. Fold and move on.

There was an interesting result from this hand. I folded, I didn’t want to but I thought there is no way he’s betting an all in sizing with anything that I beat.

What does he think he’s getting called with that he beats if he has something like QQ?

I got a reveal, he had QQ.

I was very upset that his very stupid bet got him the underserved IMO win. I had to take a walk, when I retuned I asked him if he was aware that he tuned his hand into a bluff. He is either a diabolical genius or he is a non-thinking player. His response was, he had queens, he wasn’t bluffing. He either knew damn well that betting that way with QQ was a bluff or he was a complete idiot and not thinking at all.

If he thinks his QQ is the best hand what the hell does he think I have that he has beat that will be calling with an all in sizing with? If he thinks I have AK and I whiffed wouldn’t he want to bet a small size to try to get a crying call? If he thinks I have a smaller pocket pair wouldn’t he be worried that I have a set or such a pathetic PP that I will just fold and not pay him off for an all in sizing? The bet on the river makes no sense for what he has other than a bluff. It is quite aggravating to think that he bet all in thinking he was betting for value ending in a win that he shouldn’t have because he played so badly.

It was already late and this hand had me in a funk. Then after I had QdJd the flop was QJ8, I bet big, get called and the turn is a 9. I check then the tightest player on the table bets pot. I fold in disgust and decide I’ve had more than enough.

Tried to edit the post above but didn't make it in time.

It's possible he's turning QQ into a bluff on the river. It's also possible he'd donk flop with his over-pairs that didn't 4B pre, like 99-QQ. He may use a larger size because the board is so draw heavy.

Some low stakes opponents prefer to play their second-tier PP's as a flat call facing a 3B pre, just hoping to see a flop with no over-cards to their pair before they decide they're just going with their hand.

This run-out is interesting because it just keeps getting better for TT and JJ. It's hard for us to have JT, especially if he has the Jd or Td, so he really only needs to worry about a handful of flush combos we might have.

Let's just call it one of those spots where we don't know how we're beat, we just know we're beat.

Well, looks like you posted the reveal as I was typing my post above.

I imagine a solver turns QQ into a bluff here, at least sometimes, blocking QJ. Maybe / probably the combos with the Qd, also blocking QXdd. It makes sense - QQ has zero showdown value but blocks some nutted combos.

If he said he knew he was bluffing, I'm not sure I'd believe him, given his line on earlier streets, which was fishy AF.

When someone's line doesn't make any sense, I'm often tempted to call. But at low stakes, it's not uncommon for people to do sketchy $hlt.

Last week I hero called in a spot where I thought V never had the nut flush, and had to either be severely over-valuing a strong but not nutted hand, or doing something accidentally mergey, turning some SDV with a blocker to the nuts into a button-clicky value-bluff. It felt like a spot where he'd show up with a ton of SDV + NF blocker combos, and he seemed button-clicky, so I flicked it in.

Turned out he just had the second nuts, with K2s. His line didn't make any sense. I was right about him not having the nuts. I still lost $135 more than I needed to.

That hand was probably an easier fold than this one, because I raised pre, c-bet flop, and barreled turn, before he over-bet donked river. This one is tough because he's breaking game flow and sending mixed signals.

Seeing the reveal, it makes some sense. If he had JJ, it would also make sense, and you'd lose. If he has 77, 88, 87, 99, T9, JTdd, 65,.or QJdd, it all makes sense, and you lose.

He accidentally found the right line with the one hand that only makes sense if he knows he's bluffing, not value betting.

You played the hand pretty bad yourself. Just raise the flop.

That certainly is your opinion, he made a brainless play on the river if he thought he was betting for value and it was far worse than anything bad I did in this hand. If I believe he’s telling the truth when he said he was betting for value he’s going to be losing a lot of money to me in the future unless he gets very lucky against me.

I have done exactly this same thing and it feels terrible. With a beginner mentality, you win this hand every time, but you leveled yourself. I did it too. Did I mention that it feels terrible.

If you had his mentality, you had aces, you weren’t bluffing, you win.

When it happened to me I had 3 takeaways:
1. If I’m not sure, don’t fold aces
2. Look hard at villain and try to determine if he’s thinking about anything but his hand.
In other words, if he’s firing quickly and seems to be disregarding the board it’s a clue.
3. There’s many more playing like this than you think disguised as pretty good players.

It took me about a week of misery and feeling like an idiot, but it will pass. I thought of how I convinced myself he had to have 2pair or better - when if I didn’t know anything, I would have called and won.

I shove turn.

I was very upset that his very stupid bet got him the underserved IMO win. I had to take a walk, when I retuned I asked him if he was aware that he tuned his hand into a bluff.

Going for a walk because you're salty is a good idea. Coming back and coaching the guy because you're salty is not a good idea.

Take this for whatever it's worth...

I understand that you were concerned he might have a set. It's always possible an opponent is doing something most the player pool wouldn't do. But I think we'll usually be better served by applying population reads to unknown opponents, when trying to range them.

Most people aren't going to donk for 60% pot when it's heads up, even on wet boards. They're mostly going to go for the x/r with their sets and 2P. If they donk with a weak top pair, a strong middle pair, or a draw, it'll usually be for a smaller "find out where I'm at" size, usually less than 1/2 pot.

V opened pre, and you 3B for a large size, that he called. Combined with V's big donk in a HU pot, on a board that looks safe for over-pairs, I'd weight his range towards 99-QQ.

If you go back and re-read my first post in this thread, I was ranging him as having a worse value hand. I was debating call vs raise on the flop, and thought the turn was a pretty good spot to jam.

Effective ranging is about logically connecting the dots from one street to the next. You 3B big pre, telegraphing a strong holding. You're very likely to c-bet the flop, possibly for a big size. Most opponents would trap with 2P+, or just check-call with their draws.

On the turn, he sizes down from 60% pot to 45% pot. I'd view that as a sign of uncertainty.

Logically, if he was donking flop with 2P+, because there was a FDFD on board, or to milk our big PP's for value, nothing's changed. We called the big flop donk, so those hands would be likely to bet big again, and may just jam. Likewise, if he was getting OOL with a hand like 65, he got there, and would probably bet big again.

The downsized barrel would make me discount the likelihood he has 2P+, and weight his range towards worse value or a semi-bluff, likely the NFD, if we don't have the ace of that suit.

It can feel weird to jam turn in a spot like this, when V has taken two aggressive actions. But we need to differentiate between bluffing into strength, and raising for value when we're confident in our ranging of V.

There's an argument to be made for just flatting the turn. He might barrel off with worse value, or check a brick, and we can put in that last bet. The thing is, on a fairly wet and connected, 9-high board, there just aren't very many bricks. And sure enough, the river was one of the worst cards possible.

One of the questions I try to force myself to ask every time the action is on me is, "What happens if?"

If we flat call the turn, we may lose value on a lot of action-killing rivers, or our opponent may improve to a better hand, or occasionally maybe we'll get bluffed off the best hand, or V may check-call if we jam on a brick, or V may check-fold if we jam, or V traps us when he check-calls with a better hand.

If we jam turn, we may get snapped off by 2P+, or we may get snapped off by worse value, or he may call with a good draw, or he may fold a worse hand, and occasionally maybe he folds a better hand.

If we're ranging V as having worse value or a draw, I don't think he's all that likely to fold to a turn jam. When I consider all the possible outcomes of flatting or jamming turn, I think we make more money jamming than flatting, so I'd jam.

Once we get to the river the way we did here, maybe we can figure out that V is an idiot and doing this with QQ. But he could have taken this line with 99-JJ, and we lose to all those hands, so long term, it's better to fold than to call here.

Just a bad run-out, yes. But we didn't help ourselves by being scared of 2P+ on the flop and turn.

In your hand history, you need to tell us if you had the Ace of diamonds or not. You also got the pot sizes incorrect. There is $550 in the pot on the turn and $950 on the river. I think you should jam the turn against Villain's one-third pot sizing. This is never a better hand than AA. Get it in now before the river scares him away.

When you see a fish size up pre-flop, you should drastically narrow their range. When he opens to $30 instead of $25 or $20, he has a premium hand. This is confirmed when he continues facing the huge 3bet OOP. His range is going to be dominated by hands like TT-QQ and AK. Against this range, you have the nuts on the flop and turn. Even if he somehow has a set, it's just a cooler. You should focus on trying to maximize against the hands you beat (of which there are many) instead of trying to avoid going broke against the very few combos that you lose to.

Ok, this might be a little late, I just got into 2/5 recently, looking at old posts.

30 is gigantic in a 2/5 without any limper.
V is either a fish or there's a fish at the table he wants to iso.
125 is a gigantic 3bet in position but against a 30 open it's fine since V is repping top of range with such raise.
Btw, I'd never 3bet a gigantic open with any less than KK+ when villain is playing top of range.

Flop, to me he's donking with overpairs(JJ-KK) alot, I'm raising this every time here. I don't think he's folding ever unless he has pure bluffs which I doubt.
There's also a small chance he does with fd like AKdd/AQdd because to me this seems like the perfect x/shove instead of donking spot.

Turn, his range didn't change all of a sudden.

By the river, we beat literally nothing besides QQ-KK. It was a good play by villain.

At the end of the day, it comes to ranging opponent.
If we ranged villain properly from preflop, it was pretty faced up. Premiums like always.
Flop against this range we raise for value every single time. Then get stacks in by turn. Easy money.
Maybe the sizing tell didn't click in your mind.
At Parx, like 20 is standard open, some regs might choose 25 if there's a fish he wants to play. Then iso open ranges from 25-40 vs fishes/limpers.
When someone makes a non ordinary open, it stands out alot to me.
Yesterday fish was opening to 50 w/QQ. It stands out.

You say it like was a good play by villain. Maybe, if he knew he was turning his hand into a bluff and he knew his QQ was no good. If you believe him at all he bet all in because he thought his QQ was a strong hand. Can someone make a good play because they have a bad thought processes? If so then yes villain made a good play. If not then it seems he made an awful play that happened to work out because I didn’t realize how bad he overvalued his overpair. If I play him in the future he will be placing a lot of money on the middle with fairly weak hands. Then let’s see if you consider it a good play in the future.

Respectfully, I'll offer the same advice that's been aggressively given to me. If you post a hand, be mindful not to get offended or defensive as a response to others' posts when nothing personally insulting has been said.

90%+ of the people who post here mean well. Dango is certainly in that 90%.

It's understandable you're salty about the way the hand played out. Consider asking if you're mad at V for being an idiot or mad at yourself for not finding a hero call in a spot where you had the best hand but almost everyone here would advocate for a fold.

Idiots are everywhere. Live and learn from the experience. Pain is an effective teacher.

I find it interesting that you think I’m upset. I was only explaining the situation. Of course I wasn’t happy at the outcome but I find it interesting that I included the fact that he didn’t acknowledge that he turned his QQ into a bluff but Dango still thought villain made a good play. I am curious if Dango only thinks of the results to determine if a good play was made.

More than one of your replies to posts in this thread give the impression you're defensive about how you played it.

V took an action. If it was good on purpose, or good by accident, or terrible because he didn't know it was good, what difference does that make, for you? Are we trying to improve *YOUR* in-game thought process, or *HIS*?

He's an idiot. So what? What if he was a genius? Would it matter? It wouldn't. What matters is *YOUR* play, your actions, your decisions, your reasoning ability, your ability to effectively range your opponents and come to the highest EV decision.

Who cares what Dango thinks about V's play, or if Dango is being results oriented? How does that assessment of Dango help you improve your game?

We can't stop our opponents from doing stupid $hlt. We can only stop ourselves from doing stupid $hlt. Ideally, we're identifying the spots where they're likely to do stupid $hlt, and encouraging them to do that stupid $hlt, and then we're taking full advantage.

This one isn't on V. It's on you. Multiple people here read your OP and came to the conclusion you should consider raising flop, and strongly consider jamming turn. We only saw what you told us you saw, yet we saw it more clearly than you did.

The information was there for you. You missed it. You'll likely keep missing it until you allow yourself to admit you have a blind spot, and work to fix it. Even if you see this V at the table, you'll miss opportunities to exploit him, if your only takeaway from this hand is "he's an idiot and just got lucky."

You wrote an awful lot, in the end I cannot control how he plays I can only control me. What is important for me to know about him specifically is that in the future when he bets for an all in sizing he could have something as weak as QQ so that next time I’m in the hand with him I can make the call knowing he would overvalue a pocket pair and not be thinking about how my hand at all.