ATs in the SB facing a tilted button
1/2. Rake/promo/tip 6+3+1. Loose passive table. No three-betting.
V1 (200) has over 80 hands a VPIP/RFI/3B around 40/16/0. With headphones and a hoodie over his head, looks like a grinder and brags about hands. He plays hundreds of hours of poker per year. He is happy to lose his money.
V2 (125) is tilted and very drunk. He just lost his stack calling an all-in raise. I hoped he would leave because he really killed the vibe. In fact, he re-bought for 125 (six twenties and one five). Hero has years of experience with this V. When he is sober, he is a reasonable player. When drunk, he plays ATC.
Hero (covers) has a TAG image to V1.
OTTH
V1 in HJ opens 10. V2 OTB raises to 50. Hero with AdTd in the SB. Hero?
15 Replies
Not really concerned about the BTN, gii vs him probably isn't bad. Is HJ nitty enough to fold AJ-AK? If he is, maybe we can jam but since he raises so rarely there's a lot of better Ax in his range and we're just dead. I'd be watching him to see if he looks interested in continuing or not. Absent a reason to believe HJ is folding, I think this is a fold.
Calling is terrible, especially since BTN is probably jamming everything OTF and we will be monkey in the middle with a hand that will be mediocre a lot.
Fold pre-flop
You are sandwiched between the opener still to act and the 3better. Maybe drunk is a factor, but the 3better’s value range (AQ+, TT+) dominates. Then you have to consider HJ’s continuing range.
200 effective leaves no room to maneuver post-flop, no implied odds. You miss the flop 2/3 of the time and you don’t want to be OOP in a bloated pot.
If you 4Bet, you’re turning a weak hand into a bluff, not good.
If you cold/call because the drunk has become a maniac, you are putting in a quarter of the effective stack OOP vs two strong ranges. One of them is likely to shove the flop and if you flop an ace or a ten, you can’t be loving it.
Maybe it’s not a snap fold, because of the characters involved, but there are certainly better spots, in position with more information on where you stand.
It’s a bad gamble
If either player has AQ they beat you 7 out of ten times and they may have better.
This is not nitty, it’s a disciplined fold.
I think it's easy jam. We are ahead of V2 range. V1 might fold alot of better hands only snapping us off with JJ+/AQs+ which is only a small portion of his opening range.
Get it in. Also, it may unpleasant if V2 is an angry drunk, but if he’s punting off his money we shouldn’t want him to leave.
Has V2 been 3betting much? I would assume this is still a decently strong range even from a tilted shortstack.
V2 has to be super wide for you to be ahead here. He would have to be 3betting stuff like A8o, K9s, 33, etc.
There is no fold equity here and not that much dead money. V1 has a relatively narrow and uncapped range as well. I would fold. It's close though. I think AJs would be a jam.
Hand continues..
V1 in HJ opens 10. V2 OTB raises to 50. Hero with AdTd in the SB. Hero?
Hero actually raises to 125. V1 all in. V2 calls. Hero?
Results in a few days.
It's $75 more to call? That is a snap call with any two cards. Could probably still call with one card tbh.
Oops, now the right move is say "just kidding" and take your $125 back. If that's not allowed then call the $75 and may the poker gods bless you.
I forgot to add: after the all in, V1 shows his cards to his neighbor. He has a big smile.
I forgot to add: after the all in, V1 shows his cards to his neighbor. He has a big smile.
I don’t think you got much here, that could be anything from a pair of twos to a pair of aces.
I guess you wanted to commit the drunk, though I’m not sure why. If you were going to do that, why not just shove. Maybe it’s the old raise or fold advice from the small blind that prompted this. But fold to a 3bet is also good advice at low limits.
There’s just too much gamble for a guy like me that would have folded pre. Sure, you can show me good results, but if you keep playing AT suited OOP against 2 players for all the money it has to be a mistake, no matter what happens this time.
V1 is pissed because his pair of sixes only beats you as the lucky drunk sucks out with T9 on a 952J7 board
I wouldn't go so far as to say it could be 22 but agree this isn't always AA. Hero definitely stepped in it and V1 has a big hand but against everything except AA we are getting a fine price. I don't think a 40/16 players range can be narrowed that much even with the tell.
I mean I'd just all in pre here.
Results
Hero says “I would like to take my bet back.” Dealer says no way. Hero calls.
Flop is Ah3d7c. Hero says, “that’s good for me!” V1 shows AA. V2 Shows 88. Turn and river are bricks. Hero mucks without showing.
cooler
