Squeeze gone multiway on monotone flop — should we ever follow through?

I thought you were a nit?
Wtf you doing w/83s??

Try A2~A5s, KQ/KJo or something if you want to go looser with you squeezing range way better than this trash. Even 76s is better than this specific hand.

Usually live we don't go polarized 3betting, we 3bet a linear range(good, better, best hands)

If you want to 3b trash, try btn 3betting them next time, being in oop makes life difficult.

Fold pre. Check/fold every street

If you're going to squeeze, squeeze. I get they opened to 7, not 15, but you're going to want a lot of folds here, and 38 more with 355 back, though a pot-sized raise, isn't going to cut it. If 15's a normal open, 45's a 'normal' 3! size, and these types love cold calling. So go bigger.

Never mind it being grossly ambitious to get 4 LL players to fold. I'd make it 60-70 if I were to try this, which I'd almost never do. My image usually isn't nitty enough to get away with this.

AP, bet a 'please call me!' size. Probably 40-65 into 150. Fold to a raise, and decide on turn whether they're going to hang around.

Once the flop check thru, I think you could bet the turn. $50? This is obviously a bad hand preflop and you should have folded, but the situation resembles some where you have a brittle pair (or worse) in a pot that might be orphaned

No follow thru
If you’re going to take a line like this, you can’t check the flop - KEEP TELLING your story. You gave up too soon.

When you say loose?
Some players play any two pre, but then fit or fold - so run them off their hands.
Others are stations that will not fold easily at any stage, but I think you still bet small vs them, to keep doubt in their minds.

The story must be consistent
You 3bet says strong hand, so a check says I missed everything, not a strong hand anymore
This is a hit or miss board, why couldn’t you have hit it? I’m not saying barrel off your stack to players that never fold, but you need to GIVE THEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO FOLD

Obviously, I fold pre - I need a little better hand to make this play. What did you expect when you made the squeeze play? I can’t get it in my head, did you honestly expect to fold everyone with the squeeze play?

Forgive me for saying that this is horrible to check down a hand that can’t possibly win at showdown. You should avoid any line that puts you in this situation.

When you get out of line, nobody knows….
Don’t use betting lines to expose yourself

i usually advocate for looser pf play than this board does but preflop is nowhere close to a good decision.
nitty player UTG open we should squeeze very rarely.
he's tank-calling because he's thinking about jamming not because he's thinking about folding.
idk what he showed down if anything but it was probably a hand an average player 4 bet jams but he calls because he's nitty.

If we cbet this multiway, what are we representing? Basically, we would be representing the nut flush draw with AcA, AcK, or AcQ. Maybe KcKor QcQ for overpair and good flush draw. Suppose you could have the nuts with AcKc/AcQc/Acxc.

Not sure you need to follow up OOP on this flop. You want to follow up when representing JJ+ or AK would give you a good hand on the flop.

When it checks through, maybe you can make a play for it, but being the preflop aggressor does not give you much advantage.

In general, you don't want to 3! light with a hand that isn't at least close to good enough to flat call the raise with. Against these calling stations, you don't want to be building the pot with literally the worst hand and the worst position multiway.

I took a stab at defining some ranges.

For the loose passive ABC caller I came up with: 88-22, AJs-A2s, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o (26% of hands). For the UTG raiser it's only a little stronger. He's got 99-JJ, AKs, and AQs. I'm assuming QQ+ will 4-bet given the number of players left to act behind.

So one opponent has 345 hands, the other has 322 hands.

If I remove all the hands that totally whiffed the flop...... the raiser continues with 200-ish hands, the caller has 184

So they're both folding about 40-45% ish. Your c-bet has a .40*.45 = 18% chance of folding them out. A half-pot c-bet needs to work 33% of the time to break even. Though a huge chunk of their continuing range is just a broadway club drawing to a high flush.

When the flop checks through, you can start discounting sets, and Tx from their range. On the safe turn all the flush draws just lost half their equity. I think a nice chunky 2/3 pot sized bet on the turn ought to turn a profit.

Grunch:

PRE - Don't squeeze from the blinds with trashy hands.

You might be able to get away with this sometimes from the BTN, but even then, it's shenanigans. When multiple players have VPIP'd, we should be 3B'ing linear, expecting to see a flop.

Also, the size is too small. If you want to take the pot down pre, which you should want to do, make it at least $60, if not $70.

POST - yeah, just give up.

When the flop and turn check through, I'd be pretty confident no one has a flush, so I might try to steal it on the river with a big over-bet, to rep a big overpair with no clubs.

The worst part about this is that we're supposed to show first when the river checks through. And we actually have some sliver of showdown value, so we can't just say "8 high" and muck, leaving them to think we 3B pre with 87s.

I might say, "if anyone has a pair, you win", and see if someone shows a better pair, then just muck if someone does. Pray no one shows 22 and you end up accidentally slow-rolling them.

If you have to show your hand, the good news is that you can start sizing up with your 3B's and expect tons of action. You might be getting called by players at other tables.

You don't have to show your hand. You can just muck it. However, showing might be good for action when you 3! AA/KK.

Thanks for the responses all.

Results:

I have to table my hand first. So I show 83s, third guy mucks. I see a ray of hope.

Then, UTG unfortunately tables 6c6d.

No, give up every street. Do not do this pre either.

66 open UTG isn't that nitty. It's a hand that is right at the bottom of open ranges that you would expect a nitty player to take out.
So your read was a little incorrect, and you also pick up on his timing tell.
He's debating folding because $45 is right around the pip of where he should be folding because set mining is no longer economical. He called, so he's also still not that nitty.
I'd readjust my read to "plays average ranges" not tight-ish, and that he doesn't overfold to 3bets.

If you sized to $65 here ($400 effective) you probably would have taken it down

When it keeps checking around, I would be 50-100 on the river, representing an overpair scared on the flush cards.

idk man the way you think is way too black and white and polarized

Who thinks that way, OP?

I don't like cbetting, because QQ+ probably wouldn't bet the flop. When it gets checked through, I would bet the turn, and maybe bigger on the river if called or just bet the river if I checked the turn.

We're playing $1/$2 with an SPR of about 2.3x vs passive players. I'm c-betting all my overpairs here except perhaps AcAx. Fish get overly attached to their FDs, and I think it's huge EV to get all the money in OTT with a hand like JJ+ when Vs have way too much Ax and Kx offsuit. Is KcTx ever folding? Nope. So my plan with value would be to bet smallish OTF and jam brick turns where we're going to be a 60%+ favorite a ton vs a FD. I think at low stakes that line is printing.

With a bluff, I'd bet small on the flop because Vs will just fold if they don't have a club. You throw $50 at this flop and it will get through a lot. They are going to fold hands like 87dd, 88 no club, some might even fold Tx no club. If called, we can check turn, and if V checks back, then we can bluff river targeting a pair + club type of hand. Which at $1/$2 players consider $100 a huge bet. So if we bet flop for $50, turn checks through, and we bet $100 into $250, and I think most $1/$2 players are folding 6c6x even though they probably aren't supposed to. I think we're only getting called by 2p+ by the average fish. If V does have 2p+, they bet when we check turn a good chunk of the time so we get let off the hook. So I think gen-pop is overfolding river on this line. That makes it a good line for air to follow in my book.

I join Doc in calling shenanigans for the pre flop raise. Don't do it. You need some shred of blockers or a hand to back up your bluff.

As played though you did flop a pair, so you're not completely without equity. You've got 4 outs for a non-club two pair or trips. I'm definitely stabbing at some point postflop, and continuing to tell my story about having a big hand.

I like Yami's approach. Follow through with a small cbet on the flop. If called by one player, check turn like you've got an overpair concerned about a flush. If turn checks through bomb (relative to the stakes, like $100) a non club river.

Alternatively you could check flop then make one decent sized bet on the turn to try to take it down.

I don't think you want to start bluffing on the river though. You're leveraging the possibility of more bets coming to try to fold out something like his 66 when you bet flop or turn. At low stakes against relatively fit or fold players, I think your post flop bluff will get through enough.

Obviously, it is a bad 3!, but you play it from where you are.

IMO, a bluff is much better on the turn or river once it has been checked around. It looks reasonable that you checked your big pair and then bet it when everyone checked.

if we're doing this with hands as bad as 83s, then do we even have a fold range if there's a possible squeeze spot?

No, next time we close our eyes before looking at our hand and squeeze 2 extra BBs in this spot and watch all of them snap fold their capped ranges pre.

yes. seems to guess hyper specific range composition for opponents every hand. is not inherently a bad strategy if you are notably better than your opponents at exploiting handreading blah blah, but that doesnt seem to be the case so instead torching

even the takeaway for the thread is he should have raised bigger instead of attempting to play good poker and not squeezing 80% of hands oop into fish. like some 2005 cards dont matter thinking

unless someone is slow playing a flush i think you can overbet turn and just take it down pretty much always. you should still have all the overpairs, theoretically

pre is lol