Should hero get the money in on this turn?
Lively home game, €1/€2 round of each, Texas and Omaha.
PREFLOP
Button straddles to €5. Hero (€600) is in the SB, looks down at K♦K♥5♦4♣, and calls the straddle. There are six more callers before the action gets back to the button, who checks his option. I realise this is weak preflop play and that I should probably simply fold - I was having a good night and not concerned with playing perfect poker - I just wanted to see if I could hit my set.
FLOP (€40)
A♠K♣7♠
Hero bets €30. Villain (€550) calls, the others fold. Villain is an old adversary who I have been battling for many years. A tricky, loose-aggressive player who has got many tricks up his sleeves.
TURN (€100)
A♠K♣7♠2♦
So my reasoning at this point is that villain is very unlikely to have AAxx, as he did not raise preflop or on the flop. Hero bets €100, villain raises to €400. Hero...?
11 Replies
Ship. Yes he sometimes has AA, but he can have other hands too.
Just GII. What position is V and how aggressive is the button? You should at least be taking this into consideration. If button is aggressive and V is in early position, there is more chance he has AA and was hoping someone would raise, especially the button, so he could 3! and GII himself pre-flop. If button is passive and V is in late position, less likely he has AA, so make sure you are at least aware of these things when considering your options.
Yes ship it and get it in on the turn. You lose to AA (unlikely given preflop action), but the villain could also have 77, 22, or 2pair with a re-draw to the nut flush and we are ahead of that entire range.
I'm not a live player, but weak AA would make a lot of sense in this spot.
Villain might call the flop bet just to gii on a safe turn (non spade/J/T/Q).
Also your perceived range will be set heavy here, especially since you lead into 5 players, since you said villain is a tricky aggressive player I am sure he's aware of this.
Would’ve saved money check folding the flop.
