Road from NL10 to NL50

to be clear, i agree with your conclusion! 4b-folding is very unlikely to be correct.
but if we somehow knew for a fact that villain jams like a nit, then we can't call the jam. the point is exactly that we usually can't know that, so just don't overthink it.

exactly my thoughts. You can not know, it's also a mistake to make assumptions on people's play based on Hud stats, not that you have detailed one's on GG, but if he did, which he doesn't, as he just started shot taking 25nl.
i can't count the amount of time's I've thought about deviating, or have made a deviation in some way based on a hud stat, only to be completely surprised to see this person going crazy with a random hand or opening super wide compared to what I'd expect from their stats. it's just so hard to predict people's behaviour, hud stats are not reliable. You need huge samples on people to get anywhere close to accurate information, there's a lot of variance in small sample sizes, and even then you can't trust it. In this situation it's a 100bb effective bvb spot v an unknown opponent, you can't make any assumptions about what you think they may or may not 5 bet jam in this spot or what other players at 25nl are doing.
I'm about to start a session at 25nl now, I guarantee i will see some wild and weird hands, people play so odd at the micros.
I'm not saying I don't make pre flop deviations, there's some spots where i am deviating massively, some spots are massively under bluffed or require big deviations from what the machine would do, but this is certainly not one of them.

I've played 12 hands and stopped to show you this hand, tell me people aren't spazzing at 25nl? Everything about this hand is weird. First you get the small 3x sizing OOP pre, i randomise between 2 bet and flat flop, and you'll see how the rest plays out. He shows down 99 on this texture, WTF. 25nl is a shit show. you can't be making big assumptions about people's play without very strong evidence to back it up.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 86.36 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 155.48 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
BB: 273.64 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 95.84 BB (VPIP: 25.71, PFR: 11.43, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
CO: 298.36 BB (VPIP: 29.91, PFR: 23.08, 3Bet Preflop: 13.95, Hands: 119)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 6d 6s
Hero raises to 2.28 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to 7.24 BB, Hero calls 4.96 BB

Flop : (14.88 BB, 2 players) Qd Ts 6c
BB bets 7.12 BB, Hero raises to 18.48 BB, BB calls 11.36 BB

Turn : (51.84 BB, 2 players) Ac
BB checks, Hero bets 19.8 BB, BB raises to 108.92 BB, Hero calls 54.48 BB and is all-in

River : (200.4 BB, 2 players) 4s

BB shows 9h 9c (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 81%, Flop 14%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows 6d 6s (Three of a Kind, Sixes)
(Pre 19%, Flop 86%, Turn 95%)

Hero wins 192.4 BB

@dissect here's another one for you. This is a player I have a 2k sample on, he has a 4 bet frequency of 6% that is over a sample of 66 spots, so it means absolutely nothing. I'll share the hand, it's easy to overthink these spots but i think instead of overthinking reduce it to what matters most, i think i have a good bluff catcher, I block JJ which may choose block on river, but what matters more than that is his river sizing. He leads for 1/3 pot, do i win more than 25% of the time, if I think the answer is yes then call. He shows up with J6s, a hand that is a pure fold pre. I constantly see this, people making massive mistakes or spazzing out. Perhaps he wants to fight back but he's not studied enough to know which hands go into the 4 bet range so he picks a random hand, his sizing pre is also fishy, what i'm saying is making assumptions about people's play without super strong accurate information is a big mistake in my opinion. People spaz out at 25nl all the time.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 40.6 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
SB: 105.36 BB (VPIP: 19.85, PFR: 15.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.68, Hands: 2, 333)
Hero (BB): 224.48 BB
UTG: 104.28 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
CO: 107.24 BB (VPIP: 27.84, PFR: 23.86, 3Bet Preflop: 15.07, Hands: 186)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Ac Jc
fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 3 BB, Hero raises to 10.48 BB, SB raises to 27.24 BB, Hero calls 16.76 BB

Flop : (54.48 BB, 2 players) Qh 9c 2c
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (54.48 BB, 2 players) 5h
SB checks, Hero checks

River : (54.48 BB, 2 players) 8h
SB bets 17.16 BB, Hero calls 17.16 BB

SB shows Jd 6d (High Card, Queen)
(Pre 28%, Flop 7%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows Ac Jc (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 72%, Flop 93%, Turn 95%)

Hero wins 84.8 BB

i can definitely confirm the "people construct their ranges randomly" part, which only makes running bad against their ATC more frustrating 😂

they do indeed, people at the micros are very random. I think keep it simple, don't overcomplicate things haha.

Hey guys thanks for the discussion - this is super helpful

Just general reflection on my post yesterday - I think I was pretty tilted tbh after losing 2 BI over spots where I'm just meant to lose my entire stack without massive deviation.

I think what Mr. Dude is saying is that yes folding TT *might* be profitable (provided that villian doesn't do crazy stuff, which is very possible to be untrue), in this specific hand, but if I fold TT every single time, then I will become so easily exploited as villian can just jam so much **** and I will fold everytime. So in a theoretical sense it makes perfect sense that I should be calling.

As for the 3bet range, villian actually has a very aggro reg stats with 11-12% 3bet. So 4betting that I think is great.

I thought more about it though, when I 4bet him I only had 7% 3bet. So my perceived 4bet range is incredibly strong. I think taken that into consideration, my TT will most likely be a -ev call.

But regardless, I do agree with Dude that I simply can't fold this hand. At least I cannot constantly fold this hand and somehow let people know, because that will make me so exploitable.

Thanks bro, I read all your comments and they make perfect sense. Especially the range vs range part, and how folding TT constantly will be a HUGE deviation, never thought of that

This time I have no rebuttals for your comments hahaha. 😀

I think H2N is quite accurate with rake

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u5fowAS...

Coinpoker just seems like such a better option now:

By coincidence I watched this exact video yesterday. It does seem like a good option considering where you're based. Perhaps if you were able to consistently put in a lot of volume GG would be a good option, but for low and medium volume grinders the rake really gets you. Personally I don't think I'll ever be a high volume grinder, I like 4k hands a day max usually. I prefer shorter quality sessions with frequent breaks, so GG isn't the place for me.

Day 25:

Sort of a confidence reboot day at nl10. Great aggression (WWSF 53), terrible discipline that lost me huge pots.

I think i will grind nl10 for like 10 buyins and then shottake 2 of them and repeat. So if I hit 1100 I will shot take 50, and then I will start 1050 and once I hit 1150 I will shot take 50 again. Yes coward move, but getting used to 2.5x bet size is just a bit intimidating for me.

Plus I want to get used to 3betting wide at BB against later position and see if its profitable. My HH tells me that BTN overfold + underraise massively to BB 3bet, and CO overfolds+underraise by a bit.

I guess staying at NL10 for a bit longer could be justified as I've only had a 50k winning streak at NL10. My career win rate is still in the negatives (-0.5bb/100).

Yea but definitely do want to shot take still

BR: 1069

Day 26:

Really got the feeling of "I understand it now" at NL10. WWSF 54% which is awesome!

BR: 1120

Day 27:

Just kidding I dont understand it now 😀)). WWSF is good at 52%. Maybe just run bad a bit? maybe i will understand it tomorrow.

BR: 1100

Got my soul owned in bomb pot:

Day 28:

Whap

Today I felt that tilt actually got into my mind. You are NEVERRRR calling ham with QQ EVERRR again!!!! Lost at least 300bb today because of this single hand

BR: 1050

Can you explain how you use Flopzilla to review hands?

Flopzilla is a poker equity and range analysis tool, similar to Equilab. You manually construct ranges preflop, then refine them postflop based on the action, board texture, and either population tendencies or specific reads on your opponent.

For example, against a calling station you would include weak draws, A-highs, and bottom pairs in their continuing range, while against a nit you would use a much tighter, more value-heavy range.

This approach used to be called hand-reading practice. Some consider it old-fashioned, but I think it’s still one of the best ways to build strong intuition for ranges and decision-making.

Day 29:

Tilt recovery day + weekly recap

Definitely not the best week lol but I don't hate it. The last two days were rough but figured out what works and doesn't work. One thing I noticed is how much more often I get 4bet once my 3bet reaches 9% - 10%. It feels drastically more than when my 3bet stat shows 7%-8%.

Goals for the week of 2.2
[x] 13k/10k hands WWSF 51% (good)
[x] 2h/2h study (mainly MDA stuff, messing around)
[] 0h/1h reading (did not read lol)

Goals for the week of 2.9
[] 10k hands. I will probably stay in NL10 for a couple days because of how bad the previous two days went.

This week I will be extremely busy with school, so I can't spend too much time on poker sadly.

BR: 1050

It's one month since I started the thread, and I am making progress at the very least I'd say

Day 30:

Decent day! End the session with KK scooping against AA 😀

BR: 1088

Day 31:

Whap.

Ran bad in the beginning, didn't give up and ran good later. But towards the end I somehow forgot my principle of overfolding to shove and began to bluff catch. Quite tilting to be fair

BR: 1055

Hey bro, do you have a discord? I’d love to chat and discuss a few things. I’ve read into your thread and i find it very valuable

I appreciate the support. My discord is zhuzhuzhu

Love to chat