2-5-10-20 Live 350BB Deep OOP
Interesting spot I think warrants some discussion.
$20 straddle on Button, action starts at SB.
Folds to Hero ($7000) in BB with JT97ss and limps the $20
Folds to LAG whale in UTG1 ($3000ish), limps
Folds to Loose passive whale in CO ($2500ish), limps
Tight Passive whale on BTN ($11000ish) and he opens to $100
All limpers complete.
Flop is KcQc7d
Checks to BTN who bets $300.
Hero and UTG1 call, CO folds ($1300)
Turn As
Checks to BTN (First inflection point - do we have leads here this deep with no redraws vs whales?)
BTN bets $800 (Second inflection point - do we check raise or are we too deep? - we still have another player behind)
Hero and UTG1 call
River 2d
(Third inflection point - lead now?)
Action checks to BTN who bets $25 (yes twenty five dollars lol)
And final inflection point - how much do we raise to?
I’ll tell you what I raised to after a bit of discussion and what happened, but interesting to see how we play this and if I left too much value on the table or if being this deep OOP we are sound here.
9 Replies
I play the same so far, now think for 30secs and raise to $2025. I don't think villain will defend much even to this sizing though.
Fold preflop.
EZ game.
Firstly, fold pre. Not really the hand to be playing OOP.
Secondly, I don't even like the flop call. You hold some of your own straight outs and given the preflop action there is a chance the button has some of the A outs too. You don't even hold any club outs.
As played.
Turn
Don't lead the turn. As you said above, you don't have redraws. You really want to get a cheap look to see if you can hit. If the river pairs the board or drops another club you're going to be in a really tough spot if the villain continues to bet. I like check/calling the turn.
River
I'm not checking. You could size up and bet for value but I would probably try doing a small donk to see if you can get the villain to spazz given they demonstrated so much strength on earlier streets.
As played on the river though, I think you need to check/raise big and make it look like you are turning your hand into a bluff as there are probably sets in the villains range that they call with.
Idk if we fold any JT9 combo pre if the 4th card is an A-7
Guess waited long enough for feedback lol.
I raised to 1200 and he called. He had AA with NFD. Think I coulda raised more and definitely made more vs his specific hand but I think range wise this was how I want to play nut no redraw this deep.
you made the max?
I'm going way bigger on river. Him betting $25 is a massive mistake and he's probably not doing it with any 2pr combos ever so he's always gonna have a set and rarely have a straight unless he's doing some weird induce play. Either way vs a whale I'm gonna rep a bluff with a big raise and target the top of his range rather than try to get calls from a range of hands that's almost always checking back river
Played around with it for a while, you need to be double suited v 10/50/50 to make it over 25%, and that’s not factoring in position. AP, it’s not worth the $10 limp, and it’s definitely a fold on the flop oop with no redraws and at least two dead outs v 10/50.
My guess is you should’ve lead out potted the blank river against a tight passive whale with a monster stack.
Yea I agree leading is gonna be better here but I don't think a pot lead is good unless said whale is a super station. Probably $2-3k depending on his calling tendencies. That said when we do check and he does something really dumb like bet $25 I want to go for near max punishment bc the nuts should be in our leading range a fair bit so when we hold it after checking we need to go very big
No way this Orca is folding top set nfd on a blank river getting 2–1 and 10K in his stack. It looks exactly like top 2 or bottom set trying to take advantage of the sets with busted flush & fh draws. Plus we’ll assume he considers hero a smart pro capable of betting pot here with QQ.
I bet the solvers have it a call.
