[MID] 5/10, Nut flush on paired board

I would cbet this flop with close to range and definitely with this hand. Solvers assume tight preflop ranges.

He shouldn't have a boat. Maybe he is bad enough to raise worse and call a river 3!, but I would just call.

We cbetting range in btn vs blinds??

I thought we get played back in btn too much that there's something called delay cbetting.
Here I don't mind the delay cbet for disguise/balance.

If we're cbetting range as btn, and we have something like 45% open in btn I think we are lighting money on fire.
If we have tight stealing range, I don't mind range cbetting, but tight stealing range means you aren't stealing enough.

This is a very interesting hand. Really tests the ranging ability. Thanks for posting it, Pug.

Looking at it some more, seems like he has to have some equity to call turn next to act, but possibly he's not strong enough to warrant a donk or check raise. That would seem to weight his range towards KX and draws, though I'd think QJhh and QJss might be played more aggressively, at least sometimes.

Seems like our flop check and modestly sized turn bet let him get to the river with a pretty wide range that would include KX, worse flushes, maybe some slivers of TX, and some busted draws, like QJss. Hard to credit him with boats in this line.

I don't know if our river bet sizing would be considered polar. If it would be, then he could min-click it as a bluff with any hand that doesn't have SDV. It's just hard to find those hands after he check-calls turn. I think it's mostly just QJss and TX, which wouldn't seem to make up very much of his range.

If our bet sizing isn't viewed as polar, and if he's not going to block with his worse value, then it sort of makes that his worse value might click it back when you're still playing deep. Maybe he doesn't want to block with KX or QJhh and get raised, so instead he takes a check-evaluate line, and our bet sizing induces him to click it back.

I dunno. QJhh doesn't block our better hands. Seems like he's going to have KX here more often.

The big question is whether or not any of his worse value calls a 3B.

With only $1450 behind, I don't know if I'd trust myself to click it back and fold if he jams. But shout out to Joe Exotic for suggesting what actually seems like a great line to target his most likely holdings.

If we think he might level himself into hero calling, maybe we can jam. But it's such a weird spot that I wouldn't feel super confident in the range we're assigning him. So I'd probably just call, and hate myself for not raising when he rolls over KX or a lower flush.

To try to add some nuance to the conversation, I do think in practice you can profitably bet a lot here. Maybe I was exaggerating when I said range, but I'm probably betting something like 70% on the flop with a small sizing.

People tend to flat way too many hands in the blinds. That makes it hard for these two ranges to find enough hands to continue with facing a small bet, on a board that misses everyone a lot.

For one people overfold this board due to the dominant heuristics. People are trained to continue with any gutshot or better plus some backdoor flush draw type hands when facing a small bet. On this board that's not enough.

K83 is world's away from K93. On K93 I'm checking far more due to all the additional continues our opponents will have with stuff like QJ, QT, JT.

Not cbetting is criminal here on K83 esp with our holding and being 200 bb deep. Gotta call river.

dont really understand how you can decide they overfold without software

what % of hands do you think they are defending pre, what % of the time do you think each is folding to the cbet? what % of the time do they need to fold? how do there being 2 opponents affect these answers? what about the 3.5x open size?

i understand these questions for most of you are impossible to answer, but i find it odd how confident you are what the solution is if you cant even hazard a guess

to me it seems like people just regurgitate heuristics theyve heard somewhere and accept as truth because youtube or whatever. but im telling you when theres multiple opponents it changes the math / strategy considerably

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Fwiw I think check back flop is the least questionable action I took in this hand.

Results:

Not too sure about the snap call, process over results.
It saved you money this time but at least think a bit more instead of snapping it off.
There's no way you folding your nut flush on river after villain has capped his range.

Some of these questions are obviously opponent-dependent, and I'm not playing with them to make a detailed read about what their exact ranges are.

What I know is the live poker population over calls preflop in both of their positions. This is pretty obvious if you look at GTO ranges and compare them to what people regularly show down with after flatting from the blinds in live poker.

I also know the MDF for a 1/4 pot bet is 80%, so between the two opponents at least one of them has to continue 80% of the time to prevent me from profiting with 0 equity bluffs.

So the only question that matters is whether our Cbet will get through 1 out of 5 times if we are considering cbetting with air. Oh yeah, even trash hands will have 10% equity or something, meaning it has to work even less than 20%.

Edit: He showed down K3o. I rest my case.

Brother, you lost the minimum here. Be happy about how you played it. Most of us would have lost more.

Sorry about the result pug, but you can't fold river to that sizing.

If you posted this hand and said you folded, there'd be a parade of people calling you scared money.

He effing min-clicked it. We have the nut flush. He got minimum value. I'd windmill my hand at him face up, and laugh in his face.

Checking back NFD on a disconnected two tone board is something I do pretty frequently 3-way. I definitely do not range bet here and like to have hands that can turn the nuts in my check back range for disguise and balance. I favor checking back broadway NFDs and Cbetting rag NFDs.

“Seems to know what he’s doing” proceeds to flat K3o from sb to btn open lol

I dont understand the “not happy about it part” do people just massively underbluff and underep their hands in your 5/10 player pool?

FWIW, I wasn't hating on your flop check. I said I wasn't sure what the correct play would be. And I like your reasoning above.

I really can't emphasize enough how good you should feel for not losing more. I'm guesstimating I'd have lost at least $800.