3-way all-in on pre-bubble offline

So where would be the borderline in my scenario? How do I play ATo or 77 in the same spot?
What about monster hands? Any calls with AA/KK or is 3-bet is safer considering BB chiplead?

ATo / 77 are very close and maybe the bottom of where I'd consider calling (although if I call 77 I probably call 66). A big thing with the ICM is that while busting a player is nice, it's often more important to conserve your own chip stack. You can call a little lighter in the BB since you close the action and are getting better odds, but you generally want to be a solid favorite against his range otherwise - not hoping to be 55/45 against a bunch of his range.

I think you can have some calls with AA/KK-- if you're going to call/fold the lowest part of your calling range, and jam the high middle of your calling range, then you need some calls at the tip top to balance the call/folds. (And any call you make probably does price you in against the SB, something you did identify, so you want to at least have a real shot of winning the hand.)

I think 99/AQo is the border where I'd be indifferent or mixing between calling and shoving. TT-QQ, AQs+, AKo I'm always shoving, I think.

I ran an ICM sim for you in HRC. This is using their standard 4-paid 18-man SNG payout format where 40% of the prize pool goes to first, 30 for 2nd, 20 for 3rd and 10 for 4th.

Here's what it's continuing with:

Notice a couple key stats: UTG is supposed to be shoving 41.5% of hands with under 6 bb, including hands as weak as T9o and 54s. I would expect most players to shove a little tighter but this is going to vary.

Also notice if we raise, BB is only supposed to call with QQ+. They're even folding AKs. I don't think small stakes opponents are going to play anywhere near correctly here. I would expect you might get called sometimes by BB with something like pocket tens or AQs. If you only call, BB is supposed to jam with a wider range of JJ+, ATo+, A9s+, KQs assuming fold equity, but small stakes players probably continue with a similar range whether you call or raise.

So if these assumptions are correct you should play tighter than the chart posted above. Nath's initial range he listed seems pretty close. Something like 77+, ATo+, A8s+, KJs+ seems pretty good.

That being said you've got to make a read about how wide UTG is shoving and also make some assumptions about how the blinds will respond. The looser UTG is shoving the looser you should call, up to a point. However the looser the blinds behind you are going to call, the tighter you should continue, up to a point.

Thanks for your comments, guys.

So A7o is indeed the borderline (at least in theory)

Well, I didn’t give UTG 45% for sure.
But he was playing short all the final table and was shoving couple of times already, showing some broadway cards or even suited connectrs.
So I expected him to have smth like that plus any pockets and Kx/Ax hands.

So, the outcome of a hand was pretty fun.
I even made a picture:

The short stack was trying to leave after the flop. Didn’t even realize he won on the river 😀
And poor guy with QQ was devastated.
He was served a meal a minute before. Definitely lost his appetite.

The edge of the picture is cut off. Did the shortie have pocket 7s, and win with a full house? But you got snapped off by the big stack with QQ hit an ace and won the side pot?

If so that's not a bad result!

Hopefully you went on to make a nice cash?

Nobody had 77. OP had A7 and that's the only 7 on the table.

Sounds like UTG had A8 and SB had QQ.

Thanks, it had been a couple days since I read this thread and I forgot he had A7o. I was thinking the A8o was his. I understand now... The shortie won with A8 and the OP won the side pot.

Exactly. So I didn’t lose much in that hand.
Unfortunately, I finished as the bubble boy that night. I went all-in against that "shorty" 3 times after that. He was always behind and was always catching his outs. Final 10bb coin flip 99 vs KQ didn’t go my way.
I’ll give it another shot this Sunday.

Nothing you can do about that. Good luck on Sunday!

What were the exact all-in hands? Just curious as to how they played out or if there were any points between here and your bustout you might have considered a different decision.