2/5 ~ 99 vs young asian guy

Preflop is OK. Fold turn.

Grunch:

In the QTo hand - he was bluffing. If he thought he was value-betting, he's even worse than he appears.

As for this hand...

PRE - Decide if you're going to 3B 99 because it's in your 3B range, or if you're going to flat call to set-mine, and give up post-flop if you don't flop a set.

Just decide now. Don't decide post-flop. Either 3B it because it's strong enough to 3B vs a fish EP limp and this guy's ISO, or just flat to set mine. There's not much to think about beyond the pre-flop decision.

I'd probably 3B it here, because I wouldn't be convinced V isn't still at least somewhat FOS with his ISO's, especially in LP, and if he 4B's us it's an easy LOL-fold. Like, I actually really like 3B'ing a polar range against this guy, if we suspect he's on the verge of being triggered into spaz-fueled mayhem.

I'd 3B the top and bottom of my continue range, and just flat with the rest. Any hand that has an easy decision facing a 4B would get put into the 3B range vs this guy.

FLOP - Why would you expect V to c-bet range into two opponents on an ace-high board?

Other than the FDFD, that A72 flop is dry as toast. You said you think he's tightened up pre. Would that mean he's also stopped splashing around post? Is he possibly aware the BB is likely to show up with some strong hands here?

You didn't flop a set. Check back, obviously.

Wait...you weren't considering betting here, were you? Is that the question? Jesus, no. Don't bluff into two opponents on this board. Just take the free card and pray to spike a 9 that isn't the 9d, assuming we don't have it in our hand.

TURN - What is there to think about here?

Just fold. And not because V bet 1/2 pot. It's because BB could easily have a hand that's better than ours, and isn't folding to his 1/2 pot bet.

Meanwhile, if he's structuring correctly, he should at least have some sort of decent-equity draw here. But he could just have some trashy AX that flopped TP, and he may have just turned aces up or middle 2P with 76.

Not trying to be a dick, Dango, but there's really nothing worth discussion here. Even if the reveal is he has 87s or 55 and she has KQdd that bricks, you should still just fold. You got to see the turn. Consider that a win.

I wasn't considered calling.
V's range was faced up capped for the most part unless 66 specifically, which I think he cbets that hand.

What were you considering? Raising?

So you were thinking about raising?

Why do you think he was both face up and capped?

You said in your OP that you think he's going to c-bet range. But...why? You think he's c-betting with EVERYTHING here?

That can't possibly be true once he checks. Like, if he's range-betting, he has no checks, by definition.

When he checks, he's either checking range, or he's splitting his range into checks and bets.

If you think he's capped, logically then, you think he's not checking range, and he's splitting his range into checks and bets. But in order for him to be capped, you have to think he's entirely un-balanced here, such that he's always betting with his good hands and always checking with his bad hands.

But that doesn't seem likely, for any V, of any description.

No matter what we think of V, if he's splitting his range, he's probably not always doing the same thing with the same hands all the time. More likely, he's deciding on the fly what he wants to do, based on the situation, specifically who's in the hand, their positions, the action, the table dynamics, etc.

If you've been 3B'ing him a lot pre, he may be more likely to go for a trap by just checking the flop with a strong hand. If the BB is tight passive, and he notices this, he may be less likely to c-bet with his semi-bluffs.

A72 is a very disconnected board. Some opponents are only going to semi-bluff with the NFD when it's two-tone, and otherwise they won't have any bluffs. A lot of opponents won't bet TP, or even 2P on this board, because their hand seems invulnerable, so they trap more.

On the 6s turn, when BB checks again, and V bets...you think he's capped? Why? Could he not have turned 2P with 76s? Why can he only have 66 that bets? Why do you think he bets 66 on the flop? Could he not have A6, or A2, or some other AX combo?

Do you think he always bets his flush draws on the flop, and never checks them? Do you think it's impossible for him to have a hand like 98dd here?

Again, I'm not trying to be a dick. It sounds like you're looking for a reason to raise here, but why? You could have 3B pre, but you didn't. You could have stabbed at it on the flop, but you didn't. Why would you want to raise now?

I think this is an important question worth examining - your opponent took an aggressive action pre, and you opted to just call. Your opponent slowed down and checked flop, but you decided to NOT bet for value, or turn your hand into a bluff. Now, when your opponent is taking aggressive action again, you want to either raise for value, or turn your hand into a bluff.

But...why? You don't beat any hand he'd bet for value here. You only beat his bluffs. And any reasonably structured bluffing range has a TON of equity here. Meanwhile, the tight-passive BB is still in the hand. We might argue that she's capped, regardless of whether or not he's capped, and I don't know why we'd think that.

She might be slow-playing AX, or she may have a draw. She may have 2P or a set. He may have TP, 2P, a set, or a draw. You have 2nd pair to the board, and you're trying to soul-read two opponents to justify raising, which would seem like a textbook polarization mistake. Your hand isn't strong enough or weak enough to warrant raising here.

Raising doesn't make any sense. If you want to call a 1/2 pot bet because you think your hand is best, okay, then call. I think I'd mostly just fold.

qt seems like thin value. sizing is a bit large but looks alright vs fish who l/c that bets 40ish% otr

idk why you'd expect him to bet range on this board, id expect him to check range
you should stab flop some amount of the time
3b pre some amount of the time
turn idk man. i kind of dont really expect this villain profile to fold a better hand - you're supposed to have some slowplays otf but let's be real you don't, and you're supposed to raise the turn with those / some amount of thinner value but idk if we do that vs b50 and you prob don't do that either so he probably going to think you have maybe 77 / a7ss at most. i dont really think hes that capped either from flop play

If you raise, what better hands are you trying to get him to fold? TT-KK? You flat called preflop, so you shouldn't have AA/AK. If you had AQ/AJ, you would probably just call down. There aren't many likely 2 pairs. Are you representing a set?

So say villains range is random Ax and TT~KK.
Say he calls a raise on turn.
Can he still call an overbet on river?

If we had a value hand say 2pairs/sets, we wouldn't raise? Then after turn raise, river we follow up for another valuebet right?

What river cards are you betting, and which are you checking back?

If you're repping 2P/sets, are you betting on another diamond? What about the 9d? What about a straight-completing card? Another ace?

You're turning SDV into a bluff. It's a polarization mistake.

You're going to end up over-bluffing rivers, because there are so few total bricks.

Any diamond brings in the FDFD. Literally every river card potentially makes someone a flush, a straight, a better 2P than whatever 2P you're repping here, a set, or a boat.

You literally can't NOT over-bluff the river if you raise the turn and barrel the river. The only way you can avoid over-bluffing is to not bet river.

You cap yourself by raising here, and you'll be firing in the dark on every river. If you want to steal this pot, just call. Your hand may be good. He may give up on the river and check.

i would focus on fundamentals before you start trying to do crazy stuff

somehow you cant 3b his co iso range because he will know and play back but you can rep ~5 combos postflop and make him fold range seems contradictory to me

anyways. having simmed. turn is pure fold without a diamond and mostly fold with a diamond, your range never raises ott as you are capped and he is not. flop is around 40% stab with a diamond and x without. it has him cbetting around 11% of range for b25 but i think people with a clue will simplify to x range here.

idk theres probably assumptions you could make where its good but if your reason to do this is he checked the flop i think youre just hemoraghing ev in a bunch of nodes. is worth pointing out he has a good number of folds with a 9 in them and very few continues (possibly only 98dd depending on your sizing and how nitty he is)

I already know where this is going.

Dango raised. I can feel it coming. V called with something that wasn't nutted. Maybe a better hand. Maybe just a draw that gets there. V shows his hand and Dango thinks V played it weird because he just checked the flop.

Agree with submursible's solver analysis. This is just clicking buttons. It is one of the worst situations to raise flop, overbet river.

If a draw hits, it is hard to represent it. If you overbet when the draws miss, it looks like a missed draw, since you don't represent much else but a set.

Don't most ppl cbet range on this board?

Do aggro ppl really check/range on this flop? I've seen him often times cbet oop that seems favorable flops for cbettors range.

Why should I stab on this flop, when villain checks on this Axx flop? BB has yet to define her range, I'd be in the dark if BB coldcalls our stabs, V calling our stabs at high frequency with the range he's checking?
We also have sdv.

He is likely to bet this flop with air and bet for value with AK/AQ, whatever solvers say, so when he checks and bets the turn, it looks like a weak ace, a pair of face cards, or something like top set trapping. With the drawy board, he should put in more than 50 by the turn with AJ+/AA. I agree he is likely to have a better hand than 99, but not a big hand.

So a tight player raises you on turn, you call with say AK fo simplicity sakes.

And on river whether it's a blank or a flush/straight board, you are calling an overbet ???

So overbets= bluffs?

No. Not really.

Yes. Fairly frequently.

Were those pots multi-way? Were the boards A72? What did he show down when he c-bet those hands? Did you see his hand?

If you have 99 with the 9d, you have a hand that benefits from betting for value and protection (equity denial), and has decent equity vs your opponent's calling range.

As a side note, if you're not going to bet the flop when your opponent shows weakness by checking, it's hard to understand why you want to raise when your opponent shows aggression by betting.

She capped her range by flatting pre, no? You know she probably doesn't have AA/KK. Probably not AK either. Probably not JJ+. She can't have a pair plus the NFD.

The best hands in her range are going to be AX, possibly A7 or A2, bottom or middle set, a flush draw, TT that won't love calling from OOP on an A-high board, or a PP lower than ours.

If we stab and she raises, it's a trivial fold. If we stab and one or both call, action will likely check to us on the turn. We're mostly giving up when we don't improve.

The nice thing about having 9d9x on Ad7d2h is that when we improve to a set, it doesn't bring in any draws, and we'll often have the best hand. Even if the turn is a board-pair, we'll often have the best hand. If the turn is a diamond, we pick up a flush draw to go with our pair.

As another side note, if you're concerned about her having an undefined range on the flop, and she's tight-passive, you shouldn't be unconcerned on the turn. She's likely to check again with a lot of hands that are better than yours, and aren't likely to fold.

Maybe a turn raise folds out TT. Maybe it folds out some draws. Doubtful it's folding out 2P+, and may not fold out AX, when there are so many draws we could be raising as a semi-bluff.

Are you asking us or telling us?

Assume he's splitting his range, always betting his good hands and checking his bad hands. He's almost certainly over-folding when we stab.

Assume he's checking his entire range, but only calling with his best hands and best draws when we stab. He's almost certainly over-folding when we stab.

Assume he's checking or splitting his range, and always calling when we stab. Okay, what's his plan when he calls with garbage? What's he do when we barrel turn? What's he do on the river when the flush comes in and we check back the turn? What's he do on river bricks when we check back the turn?

Yes, we do. Why would you want to over-play it by raising turn, if you're not willing to 3B it pre, or stab the flop when action checks to you?

Can you logically connect these dots?

1. "thought about 3B'ing but he might 4B and goes crazy"

2. not stabbing flop when we expect him to c-bet.

3. raising turn with 2nd pair to the board when he bets 1/2 pot into two opponents, on a two-tone, ace-high board where anyone can have TP, 2P, or a set, and the most likely draws are going to have 8 or more outs to improve on the river, and there's not a single river card that won't change the nuts.

It's hard to figure out why you wouldn't 3B pre, fearful that he might 4B (with worse? with better?), and you wouldn't stab on the flop because you're worried about the BB, but now you want to turn your SDV into a FPS bluff when you haven't picked up any equity and have maybe 1 or 2 clean outs to improve.

Or...were you thinking your hand is best and you can raise for value?

That's the thing - we're not sure. I don't think you're sure. If you're not positive if you're raising for value or as a bluff, it's probably a mistake to raise.

Stop changing the facts to suit your plan. You told us in the OP that you've been 3B'ing this V a lot, and you may have an aggro image to him. You can't turn around now and say he thinks you're "tight".

If you're repping 2P or a set here, there really aren't any "blanks". Like, what river cards are good for you, when you don't actually have the hand you're repping?

An ace? You think he's going to fold trip aces? Your plan is to over-bet the river, to make him fold trip aces, when all the draws miss?

A diamond? You plan to rep 2P or a set by raising turn, and you're going to follow through by over-betting a diamond on the river?

A 7, 6, or 2? Which 2P or set were you repping here? A board-pair makes it harder for you to have any of those combos. You're trying to convince him you checked back the flop with 77 or 22, on a two-tone board? It's pretty hard to rep 77 or 22 if the river is another 7 or 2.

Or you're only repping 76s/66? If the river is a 7 or 6, you're basically only repping 2-3 combos for value. How sure are you he doesn't have 76 or 66 here, when he checks flop and bets turn?

A 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, or T - all complete potential straight draws, or make him a set, or possibly counterfeit the 2P combos you'd be repping here when he makes aces up. You're over-betting all those cards, when you were only repping 2P or a set on the turn?

A J, Q, or K - all potentially make him a higher set or top 2P.

This play doesn't work as a bluff with no chance to improve to a nutted hand, and so many river cards that are bad for the hands you're trying to rep.

If you want to steal the pot, just call turn. If the BB folds, and V checks the river, then, and only then, I'd say he might be capped, and we can consider whether or not we want to bet or just check it back.

It's okay to fold here. It's probably the highest EV play against most V's, especially with the BB still in the hand.

If you call, the BB folds, and he checks river, I'd be careful about which cards I'd bet. I probably wouldn't bet on any diamond. Other than spiking an offsuit 9 to make a set, I'd think board-pairing cards are going to be the best cards for us to bet, if only because they reduce the number of value combos he can have when he checks.

Even then, I think it's going to be hard for us to rep much on most rivers when we just check back the flop.

no i dont think pretty much anyone remotely reasonable cbets their range here

its a hard conversation to have because you don't really seem to understand how the spot is played in multiple nodes so in turn you don't really seem to understand what you're going after to try and exploit. ive asked this in multiple threads of people and no one ever really has any answer for me of how can you deviate if you don't use a solver.

the vast majority of hands in his range want to put in 0-1 bet total, i dont really understand why would think he want to bet range in that case. even if i lock him to betting weak ax / 99-KK ott at a large frequency (most of these are pure checks again ott) it will still pure fold your hand. the guy who raises the river w QT vs block vs the fish is almost certainly not the person you want to be doing this against, and your cards seem to me to be negative to continue with.

i dont pay a ton of attention to who is posting what on here in multiple threads, but between this and the AK hand where your conclusion was you should fold AK because its not a "math" game bc you saw a guy c/c a combo draw on the flop, it just seems like you're kind of floundering around without really knowing what to focus on. poker is a strategy / math game. the pipeline is always what's right, what is the other guy doing that's "wrong", how can i best exploit that? you guys kinda seem to skip to step 2/3 without understanding what step 1 is or why its so important.

i imagine this will have a simlarly positive reaction to most of my critical posts

fwiw i used 2.5x open 150bb ranges at lowish rake so he probably needs to defer even more to your / bb's range in actuality. the board is best for button not the co (as is what happens most of the time when we raise oop and get called by someone competent ip and why we frequently check range oop w these ranges / spr)

I gave it a like.

was worried i was going to have to start liking my own posts because no one else would

i think this is a large assumption to make that he:
a) splits his sizings ott
b) bets these hands at all

he really just looks like a decent reg to me from the description yet op is convinced he is a unicorn that is clairvoyant preflop but his vision becomes cloudy / ultra weaktight postflop.

i have no idea this is an accurate description of his play or not, and im sure there is someone somewhere that fits this description, but it seems like mostly wishful thinking and third level prayer. i generally think ppl that approach the game like this usually have higher highs and lower lows than more theoreitcally grounded players, have much worse emotional control, and generally spiral when running bad because no real base to fall back on. usually if you try to do very fancy plays (im going to raise turn and overbet river with range!) while lacking very basic theory knowledge, you are on a direct course to lose all of your money.

is not meant to be a personal attack at all but i can tell this is going to trigger ppl (namely op)

if you want to get better, plug the spot or similar into a solver and see how its supposed to be approached from both nodes across multiple streets instead of skipping to high level questions of how do you think hes going to perceive me attacking his delayed cbet. its like the infamous tony g hand where he blew up and "played it like a set". if you dont understand the very basics, theres no way you understand the nuance enough to be able to understand when to put in 200bb light / with air / with 0% combos and why one situation might be good and another is a torch. its like a white belt trying to copy an observed exchange between 2 black belts at bjj

I already gave you one like. Seeking more approval than that is off-brand for you. Don't break character now, after you got it nailed down.

I can't wait for the reveal on this one. A hand that didn't seem worthy of discussion somehow tuned into a robust discussion.

I'll be disappointed if OP didn't raise after all this debate.