Not Quite Threadworthy--Low Stress Strat Questions

At first glance I don't like leading the river, don't think we have much of a range advantage on this card and it's more difficult for us to be bluffing.

After flop checks through it's pretty hard for him to have bluffs here, so he has to be overvaluing something. Also some chance he has like A5 and even if we don't lose we only chop. You can have flushes too.

Quick check with GTOwiz and HU LJ vs. BB it likes leading flop a lot, esp. with your hand. Then it likes leading turn, then it likes x/r turn. It does lead river some, and then is 50/50 on calling ... but LJ's river bluffs are AxKc/AxQc/AxJc/KcJx/KcQx/KxQc (although mixed) which feels unlikely.
Interestingly when solver H leads the river it's more two pair and sets, with less flushes than I'd expect.

as played i'm fine with everything, but this is a spot where i would consider donking the flop as these tend to get checked through a lot multiway - but in practice, i usually don't think of that until after i check it and it checks through so i'm worried i'm getting results oriented there

i don't like the river lead - but that's mostly because a lot of my strategy is centered around pot controlling in marginal spots

i'm still unsure if you should call or not - it's such an underbluffed spot and the way he played is very consistent with a flush - i have a tough time imagining him turning top pair into a bluff here given all the two pair, straights and some surprise flushes you have calling out of the bb

however, some players love bluffing super wet boards - but i don't think it's clear that is the guy

i would probably cry fold, but that would eat at me all night

This is the deciding factor honestly. 5x doesn't raise the river so we're never chopping imo, our line isn't entirely inconsistent with flushes and trying to bluff people of flushes is foolish.

Only reason I'm unsure is because if I had to use descriptions as a tell, young Asian males probably are some of the most aggro players I've played with but not sure if this outweighs the fact these river spots are underbluffed.

yes, if the description weren't reggy looking young asian it's a snap fold imo

thanks for the GTOwiz stuff - interesting. So what does GTO wiz do with a straight on the river...check/call?

I was check raising flop but it checked through but I'm interested in the turn lead idea - feels a little icky seeing as the A hits his range so much harder. Feels like I'm gonna have to bomb river a lot when unimproved to get folds out of his big Aces and that might be a losing play?

your pov is where I got to. I can't imagine a good player raising 2 pair for value here and he shouldn't have many sets and tbh, even a set shouldn't be raising for value on this board

so is he good enough to turn Ks or Qs into a bluff here or is he bad enough to raise river with two pair

but then...how many flush combos does he have with the Ac gone? there's KQ, QJ, KJ, K10, Q10 maybe? and then perhaps he's opening wider than this...IDK.

I agree he can have A5 suited here for a chop too.

I mean...a straight's a strong hand and shouldn't be that marginal on this board vs an EP raiser?

I'm doing it to get a call from his strong A hands but for that reason I think I can size down. In game, it was to make the size look consistent with missed flush draw

the advantage of sizing is that it should make it less likely he'll bluff raise

IDK. Interesting spot and I'm not certain it was right but I folded.

yes. and it's also 5/10 where you do get good, creative, unafraid players

yeah i haven't played mid/high stakes in over a decade so i'm always hesitant to comment on your stuff for that reason

i mean there's a 5/10/20 game 20 min from me but it's $300 cap so i don't really see the point in dusting off reasons to play for real money anytime soon because that just feels like i'll get pwnd hard by some locals who spent a lifetime specializing in how to play a format that essentially becomes a limit game post flop

thinking the real thing i should do is learn limit and play the 20/40 and 30/60 games here or maybe even join the dark side of plo (which also has the 300 cap) as that's a wild game here sometimes based on the constant yelling vs the silent 1-3 tables adjacent to them

1-3/1-2 it's a snap fold

and i'm aware that biases my thinking here

i still strongly stand by not donking the river - but my entire game plan is LAG where i play a bunch of marginal spots to image set and then get light callers when i blast off with the goods - doing so requires me to play very cautiously post flop because people pay less attention to what i did for 3 streets and more on "he plays a lot of hands and raises and 3! a lot pre, he's full of it" then ignore that i often go x, b, xc or b, xf etc quite often and don't have too much b, b, b in my playbook

i think that's what live poker is all about, just making sure you are the one with good whens the high denom chips go in - also why i opted into folding QQ on river (kinda marginal) and not betting turn (probably a leak) was the right play because although i was likely ahead, i didn't want to play a big pot with just an overpair

i think my stack config is pretty indicative of my style, max is 500 so i'll get 4 in green, 1 in red whereas everyone else just gets red - reason being i'm either pot controlling or going for it, not much in between - any medium sized pot heads up was simply a situation where i was reluctantly bluff catching or thought i'd get a bluff through and was mistaken

but with a LAG image where we're hoping to get light callers, betting a straight on the river here is right, no? You can't always wait for the stony colds and a straight is a strong hand.

If there's a greater than usual chance (because LAG) that we 'could be bluffing' then we should be getting a ton of calls from AK and Ax two pair hands. Particularly when front door flush misses. TBH, I might be bet/folding A7 for value on the river too, particularly at 2/5.

It mostly doesn't get to the river with 75s ... or other similar 5x hands. The two big ones is still has a decent amount of are 55 and A5s and they both check about the same as range does (92% check on river). 54s/53s do bet a bit more, and have 30-40% of combos. on the river.

Solver likes to x/r 55/75s when it checks the river with them ... but I'm less sure how well that'd go, even at 5-10.

As I said, solver is fine bet/calling river but I'm not sure humans are finding the same bluffs to make the call as good.

Two interesting things from robot world:

1. If BB leads flop (b33) then Robot LJ mostly calls AA.

2. If flop x/x and BB leads turn (b33) Robot LJ _still_ doesn't really raise AK and does so only around 50% of the time with AA.

...also with the A being 2nd flush draw hitting I think you can lead turn and check a decent amount of rivers.

Doesn’t get to the river with 75ss because it folds pre?

yeah i'm with you, and again, this is definitely 1/3 brain rot leaking in - but people played suited hands at such high frequencies pre that they appear far more often in the wild than they should in live environments - i also found this true when playing high stakes

for example, you probably find the fold if your hand wasn't suited preflop

so whenever a straight comes in, the dynamics shift far greater than the board pairing

i'm far happier with a donk and call of a board pairing river where you have a 4 card straight than i am with a flush completing river with a donk and call

No it defends it preflop (note solver was HU), but it leads flop; leads turn or x/r turn with it.

A mildly frustrating preflop spot..

UTG is fairly solid-seeming player, probably leans tight-passive but does not open limp.
UTG+1 is a short-stacking fish, bought in for $100.
LJ relative unknown, sat recently, has solid-ish TAG vibes.

$1/2 blinds...

UTG ($300-ish) opens to $8.
UTG+1 ($65) calls.
LJ ($400) raises to $34.
CO folds, exposing Q7s

Folds to Hero (covers) who looks at QQ in the SB. How much does the Q in the muck influence Hero here?

I don’t play 1/2 so it’s hard for to know what his 3 bet range would be. But at 2/5 and 5/10 I would 4 bet to like 95

As I thought about the hand it was LJ’s range that bothered me far more than the folded Q

another QQ hand

5/10.

Villain (2k) UTG+1 is unknown but guessing reggy - can’t be more than 23/24 and bought in for the 2k max. No real hands other than his first hand he limped 10 from bb to straddle 20 and then called the 80 raise from straddle. He than check called two streets of 90 and then 220 on J 3 4 r 9 turn and his 77 lost to QJ

Hero (1200) is MAWG. I’ve been quiet cards wise in the hour he’s been there. Have opened and whiffed multi way flops twice since he’s been there. But it’s clear I’m guessing that I’m a regular because I’m talking with the other regs

He opens to 25, there’s a call from button and I’m in bb with QQ

I raise to 130. He takes a minute and re-pops to 340. I call m

Flop (710) is 535 with two diamonds. I have Q diamonds

I check, he bets 220. I have 860 behind

Call or raise? If raise, is there an amount less than all in?

it was questionable to begin with, villain is already repping a hand that is either flipping or dominating with us - losing that out settles the matter - very easy fold imo

i would just call here - you're never folding with this spr on this board so may as well let him stab at it

this is the range i give him

going to be annoying the times he's just donking away with A2s and spikes an ace on the river but i think you're so far ahead or behind of anything that calls a jam that you're better off flatting

Are you saying that’s his opening range or his 4 bet range?

No way he’s 4 betting that wide vs a bb 3 bet

I would think JJ+ AK for value and then some suited A broadway, maybe a few suited A wheel combos as bluffs.

oh i forgot and thought he called your 3!

that was the 3! & call range

4! it's hard, i haven't played those stakes in a long time but his profile screams of online crusher deciding to play against some old rich men at the casino so despite that you look like an omc, he likely views you as a fish based on nothing more than you not topping up your stack

in SRP wide vs wide configuration flop goes X-B-R-C what is BB's overall strategy on turns? My recent goals have increasing the number of x/r bluffs on flop when I think the PFR IP is stabbing too wide/too often.

eg Hero in BB vs BTN open, flop is 2d, a green Uno reverse card and a subway coupon. BB checks OOP, original preflop raiser bets small (<= 50% pot) and hero thinks V is over-cbetting too wide and decides to x/r with a backdoor diamond draw to exploit and punish V. This works a lot on many (but not all) flop textures and generates a lot of folds in this configuration. However, I feel lost when V continues vs the checkraise. My current strategy is to continue barreling if my hand picks up equity and give up if the turn bricks. I'm unsure if this is good and looking for feedback/discussion on this as a big picture concept rather than an exact HH (as evidenced by the example flop).

Thanks in advance

It feels like the opposite to me where if I pick up equity it’s a check and keep barreling when I miss. This is an interesting question, but I think player types are a big factor.

It’s ok, I can get him to fold later
or
V has a very big hand to call this bet

I will say that I have had a lot of success when it’s wide range vs wide range by becoming a hyper aggressive maniac with any two and betting until v gives up. It’s rare that I lose with this strategy as a normally tight player.

this is way too abstract to get any useful info

also looks like you're talking about online, which has very different dynamics and a very different player pool

UTG is tight passive, but doesn't open limp???? Not really sure what to make of that read.
Does this mean he only bets very high equity draws and good value postflop?

LJ 3betting UTG and a caller should be tight even if he's good.
With someone who's sat recently your read could be off and this could easily be pure KK+ and maybe some AK?

Good chance you should just fold AKo/QQ here anyway, as UTG can still do anything and UTG+1 can also make random fish moves opening the action for LJ.

The missing Q _only_ drops your equity ~5% HU, but it's a great "excuse" to sigh fold.