2/5 ~ Flop nuts, how extract max value vs fish?

Mostly check, but betting isn't a mistake either. You block a lot of the calling range but almost as much as their value betting range. I wouldn't develop a small bet range, just use the Sam's ~250-275 I'd use with anything else I'd bet

You can xc or xr if there is a fd on board and you dont have the A of the suit

I’m never checking best hand against a “usually passive” V. If hero checks, V might just check back. Just bet 150 to set up a river shove. V called flop with worse. Don’t you think V calls turn with worse too?

I bet $300. May consider overbet depending on image if V can level himself into thinking I’m making some move.

He's got 8 combos of AQ/AK, and 3 combos of TT. I'm going for max value against those hands, and Im not going hold back because I'm worried I might lose a street of value against JJ-QQ.

Use a geometric sizing and get all the money in. Half pot on every street.

Villain will be getting 3 to 1 every time and will have a hard time folding top pair.

You kinda ruined that by betting so small on the flop though.

yes, exactly

Bet $200. See WereBeer's post 😉

Grunch:

My observation of Pacific Islanders (at least the men) is they don't bluff enough, they'll slow play nutted hands and fast-play thick but vulnerable value.

PRE - if he's increased his open size by 50%, you need to go HUGE with your 3B size here. At least 5x IP. He may not fold if we make it 6x from OOP.

FLOP - I think we might be able to c-bet a little larger. Probably not more than $100 though.

TURN - just bet again. At least $150. I don't think he starts folding out JJ or QQ until we get closer to $200.

How are you ranging him here? What do you think it means when he opens for a big size pre, and just flats your 3B? He probably doesn't have AA or KK. His range is going to be TT+/AK.

He's NEVER folding AK if we bet $200-$300. He's probably not folding JJ or QQ if we bet $150. I'm not sure he's going to raise a small bet with TT, but there's a non-zero percent chance he'll raise over either a small or large bet, and he's NEVER folding to any size bet.

If you look at that range, the only hands he bets if we check are going to be TT and AK.

Just count the combos - 3 of TT, 4 of AK, and 12 total of QQ/JJ. His range is heavily weighted towards QQ/JJ. Just bet small enough that he has to call with QQ/JJ. If you bet $150, he may raise with TT, and maybe occasionally with AK, but if he just calls, the pot will be $700, and you'll have $650 left to jam river.

BTW - If we jam river, I think he's going to mostly fold QQ/JJ, and only call with TT/AK. He may only call if we bet stupid-small, like $200. This is why we want to get more value pre and on the flop, so that the pot will be bigger getting to the turn and river.

If we made this $175 pre, the pot would be $350 on the flop, we could c-bet $125, and the pot would be $600 on the turn, with $700 left behind. We could bet $200 here, and have 1/2 pot left on the river. He may not call if we go bet-bet-jam, even getting 3 to 1, but we'll have extracted more value from him, even when he folds. There's a non-zero percent chance he jams turn with AK or TT when we use that bigger sizing.

Ugh...

Raise bigger pre. Bad recs at low stakes under-fold to 3B's when they open for a raise, especially when they open for a larger size, and when they're IP.

Probably QQ/JJ. I wouldn't entirely rule out some lower PP's that get sticky when we only bet 1/4 pot on the flop. Doubtful any of those hands are calling any size bet on the turn, though.

It doesn't matter that much how you played it. You have kind of a board lock. Only one ace left. Can get more action when you flop second pair.