King Eight IP flops big

Not sure why you would bet the flop without knowing what to do if you get raised.

Why did you bet the flop? For value, or a bluff?

If you jam now and get called, you need 41% equity. You have at least that much against all of V's possible holdings except sets.

That's one of those thin EV / high variance spots.

You can also just call and try to realize your equity in position.

I can get behind either calling or jamming here. But we should have had a plan before we started this.

I don't think we ever folding.

V has random bluffing tendencies so maybe call then call all turn shoves?
If we shove, we get his pure random bluffs to fold, which we don't really want.
If V has a set of 3's you can call it a cooler. Even then you have some fd outs.
Then V also has some combo draws like 9Tcc TJcc type hands. Some nfd and random fd type hand.

We should have the best hand alot here with a pair of 8's. We only lose to 33.

I guess shove. Happy if he folds. There is some dead money. In trouble against a set.

I'm torn between shoving to potentially get a better hand like a queen to fold, or calling to let him bluff turn. Better players should be more polarized when they check raise, but in live 1/3 someone could easily C/R something like a weakish queen that would fold to a jam.

Given the read that he randomly runs big bluffs I likely just call flop then call every turn if he shoves, given that you have middle pair plus flush draw. You keep dominated draws in this way, and even if he has the nut flush draw you're still ahead.

I guess V could have Q8, 33 +1 combo of 88. If villain tends to trap with monsters and fast play semi bluffs you're in good shape.

You're flipping with Qx one pair hands overall, slightly ahead of AXcc, and way ahead of straight -flush draws like T9cc. I think a shove gets called often but against a range that includes all these hands I would go with it.

Assuming our opponents are able 3B'ing QQ pre, and given that we block top 2P and middle set, I'd feel ok c-betting for a small size and continuing vs a reasonably sized x/r.

Obviously we don't want him to fold his bluffs or snap us off with better if we jam. But I'd think his most likely bluffs are going to be high equity draws that won't want to fold, and his 2P/sets may not put more money in if we improve to a flush. Plus, we can't even be sure if our 2P or trips would be good on a K or 8 turn.

I dunno. Seems like a close decision. I somewhat lean call, and see what he does on the turn.

Banana very well may have. He posts to get feedback and other people's plans -- not because he didn't have one. It's the whole point of the strat forum. We might always have a plan, but we still post hands to get feedback.

Banana, I like the bet on the flop, and vs. this V, it's the easiest jam ever.

Then the post should have stopped before he bet the flop and asked for advice from there.

If he had a plan, and started executing it...there's no way to help him now. Go with the plan.

There's never a case where it's good strategy to "abandon our plan and do something entirely different that's out of line with the action so far because we didn't automatically win after we started step 1 of our plan"

LOL. How do we know if he abandoned his plan?

Either he got to this point with no plan, or he had a plan and wants us to tell him it's ok to change it.

If he had a plan, and started executing...why would he need advice in the middle of it?

If he wants advice on the plan itself, he needs to stop posting before he starts executing the plan and ask for input then.

You realize this is the way everyone posts hands? Shouldn't we have a plan the minute we see our hand? So your answer to every post in the strat forum is to stick with your plan? Or to start with, I look down at XX... what should I do?

Either what I said went whizzing over your head, or you're being deliberately stubborn.

Which is it?

Ditto.

We have seen this guy limp call EP pre with AA and limp raise pre with AA. I would not discount QQ from his range, maybe give him 2 combos instead of 3. He can also have KK or AA here that wanted to see a 'safe' flop.

If he can find folds with say AQ we should go all in.

So you put this: he can try and run these massive bluffs. I think he just gets tired of folding and snaps sometimes and goes bananas. And the AK hand history, but you don't mention two AA hands?

Regardless, I still shove vs this guy.

So, your read is your read, and this guy may be different than the MAAG's I'm thinking about, but I see this V type limp / flat AK/AQ and worse AX combos pre, and JJ/TT, but mostly 3B AA/KK/QQ, especially in this config, where you raised BTN and the blinds both called.

What I don't see them do very much, if at all, is check-raise as a bluff. I wouldn't expect the V's I'm thinking about to show up with the naked NFD very often. So in this spot, I'd be thinking about what his pre-flop flatting range and his flop x/r range looks like, when we block middle set.

He could have AQ or 33 here. He might even have worse QX, like KQ or QJ. Unlikely he has the one combo of 88. I don't think it's very likely that he's doing this with a better flush draw, but it's not impossible. I'd think he'd be more likely to x/r as a semi-bluff with AKcc, which he can't have.

What makes it a close decision is A) I'm not sure how much if any fold equity we have if we jam, and B) I don't think he's going to want to put a lot more money into the pot if we make a flush, C) he may slow down and check Qx if we flat call, worried that we have his Qx beat, and D) we can't be sure if our K and 8 outs are any good, when he could have KQ or 33.

The possible lack of fold equity makes me want to flat call. The lack of IO if we make a flush makes me want to jam. The possibility that he may slow down on the turn makes me want to call. Not being sure if our K or 8 outs makes me want to jam.

If you think he shows up with AA/KK/QQ...I mean, when you raise from the BTN and both blinds call, that would make him very special. I'd think we'd have less fold equity, but maybe we do get paid on flush card, and I guess I'd feel better about making trips on an 8. I wouldn't expect him to slow down on the turn quite as often.

It would still be a close decision, but I think I'd be discounting the likelihood of him having AA/KK/QQ, and focusing on him having QX or 33 for value, and a small sliver of NFD's as semi-bluffs.

no f/e, great draw, bluffy guy, easy flop call and probably call any turn too. dont see any reason to jam. bluffy guys dont fold Qx this deep. theyll fold their bluffs though which isnt what you want.

I think the range you're putting him on is too tight. These types of disconnected boards that are somewhat unlikely to have hit anyone hard are the types of boards that people will bluff/ play back against you on. At least they do in the games I play in. I think he can have stuff like worse flush draws and even gutshots.

I'm leaning towards nittyoldman's strategy of calling to keep his bluffs in. We have a hand that beats bluffs and has equity against his value hands.

That being said, I do think there is some value in jamming and denying equity (and realizing our own). When you call you do end up facing some difficult to navigate situations, such as the turn checking through, bricking our draw and then facing a bet on the river... Sometimes we might end up folding the best hand. Also even a JT gutshot still has more than 20% equity against our hand, which is not nothing.

In game I'm probably jamming if I think I have a significant amount of fold equity, and calling otherwise.

Result:

I don't like the flat call and having to fold. He could have JcTc or something and you have him crushed. Have to shove flop.

I would fold preflop, but I understand this is your style.

You're not opening K8s when it's folded to you on the button? I'm opening it every time, even with the straddle.

You're right though that folding turn is kind of a disaster. I think banana probably has enough equity to call the jam?

I agree though if he's not going to call the jam, he needs to just jam the flop himself. Or he could even check back flop, which would be better than folding turn.

I just quickly looked at a similar spot in a solver. My solver only runs heads up solves, and I didn't want to spend a bunch of time making assumptions and creating custom ranges.

So I just solved for these stack sizes, but using a standard solver button open range vs BB defend range. Obviously 4 handed button vs straddle defend is going to play out quite a bit differently, but I was mainly curious in a general spot if we would be calling a turn jam on that turn card. So take the following for what it's worth.

Button vs BB the button is pure calling with K8c facing a flop check raise from the big blind (never reraising).

On the ten of spades turn, the solver has us pure calling a BB jam. The equity for K8c is 36.9%. So it's not exactly a fist pump call, but we're basically priced in.

Obviously this is not the same scenario as we're facing, but I think the same principles likely apply. Our opponent should have some semibluffs of their own (mainly flush draws).

So between the equity we have drawing when we're behind combined with the equity we have when we're ahead, I think we likely should be calling the turn jam.

However, you could definitely argue their jam represents a lot more strength 4 ways, which could make it a fold. Still if we're going to fold to the turn jam I prefer taking a different line so we're not putting ourselves in this spot. For example our hand plays pretty well as a flop check back.