King Eight IP flops big

Yeah, I think the turn is a call as played. You are not always behind and drawing to the flush. Sometimes, you are ahead and have the better draw. You have a lot of outs against top pair. You are way ahead of Acxc. You are 32% against AQ and 18% against 33. Two pair is not likely on this board, so you are mostly worried about sets.

It's possible I'm ranging him wrong. What range are you giving him here?

I'm just looking at it through the combined lenses of how I see the MAAG's play in my area and trying to figure out if Banana's read is accurate or exaggerated.

Thinking about a hand I played - I table-changed and sat down with a MAAG on my direct left. I got dealt good starting hands the first two hands after sitting down, opened for a raise twice, and took it down both times. Third hand, I get dealt AA in the BB. He opens UTG. Action folds back around, I 3B. He 4B-jams. I snap, and hold against AJo.

Was he "bluffing"? He probably just thought I was FOS because I started raising every hand as soon as I sat down. I wonder if Banana saw this guy do something similar when he says this V get tired of folding and will snap go bananas.

I had a MAAG sitting next to me in my last session. He was habitually exposing his hole cards (even after I told him I could see his cards), so I could see how he was playing post. He'd get super-sticky with weak TP's on super-connected boards, but when an aggro V x/r'd after he bet the flop with top 2P, and then checked to him on the turn, he jammed on a total brick, and V would snap-fold.

I dunno. I see them over-fold pre, but they don't 3B much unless or until they get fed up with someone's $hlt. Post-flop, they'll be sticky with SDV, and chase their draws when they're getting a good price, but they don't "play back" at people without having a "real" hand or a draw with a ton of equity.

I'd be concerned about 88 and 33 if we had AQ/KQ. Since we block 88 and some KQ combos, I'd think his value range is weighted towards some other QX combo, often AQo, and 33. Maybe he has some NFD's or combo-draws, but in my observation the MAAG's would be happy to call the $35 bet, and wouldn't be raising much with just a draw.

I think it's fine as played, Banana.

If you had K9cc that picked a GSSD, it's a tougher spot, but still not a disaster to make a disciplined fold, if we don't think V has any bluffs. And I don't think he has any. It's really only a disaster if we fold KJcc.

This is generally going to be QX at worst, and usually just AQ/KQ, though QJ did pick up the GSSD.

If he has any bluffs, the most likely combos made a better pair or picked up equity. If he has ATcc, he made a bigger pair and has a better FD. If he has AJcc, he has the better FD and a double-gutter to a K or 9. I can't imagine he's x/r'ing flop with JTcc, J9cc or T9cc, but if he does, he either made a better pair or he picked up an OESD.

I don't think I can really put him on an accurate range with the information given in this thread. It's player-dependent and there's a whole spectrum from "never bluff" in this spot to "massively overbluff." It just seems like your range is really close to the "never bluff" end of the spectrum.

Look at it this way. He's getting a discount in the straddle, closing the action, so he should be calling and arriving to the flop with a ton of suited combos/flush draws. It checks to the raiser, we bet and everyone else folds. It really looks like we might not have much and could just be taking a stab at a dry flop.

Ranges for both players are pretty wide here, so there are a lot of potential bluff combos. Beyond the obvious flush draws, there are backdoor spade draws, gutshots...

Now your guess is as good as mine about how many of those he chooses to bluff with, but there are a ton of hands that potentially would look like good bluffs to him. If he pulled the trigger even 1/4 of the time that would still be a lot of bluff combos, and make his range a lot weaker.

Absolutely, I think this V is close to the "never bluff" end of the spectrum, though I have seen them over-play SDV so often that this convo is making me wonder if we'd consider it bluffing. I've just been thinking they were over-playing their hands.

Everything you're saying about V's straddle flatting range being pretty wide is true. He has plenty of bluffs to choose from. I just don't see this V type actually bluffing with many, if any of them. They like to actually make their hands before they blast off.

A good example is that top 2P hand I described - he bet top 2P, and got x/r'd, but didn't 3B. Then, when V checked to him on the turn, he absolutely bombed it by over-bet jamming. If V barreled turn, he wouldn't fold, even if he only had TP.

What's the logic? I think it's that they're not comfortable betting or raising when they're not sure their hand is best, but they under fold whenever they have any piece of the board. When they are sure their hand is best, they size way up, especially on wet and connected boards.

I would agree with your read if we were talking about the opponent you described in your example hand, but remember banana's read was this:

"V - Mostly unknown MAAG. I don't play with him frequently but he doesn't VPIP very high but then suddenly post he can try and run these massive bluffs. I think he just gets tired of folding and snaps sometimes and goes bananas. Down 3 BIs tonight but still vpiping tight. Traps with monsters. 430$. UTG."

He's described as a stuck, presumably tilted guy with a tendency to go wild bluffing. Against this opponent, assuming we accept banana's reads, I would expect him to have many more bluffs compared to the opponent you described.

this doesn't make sense. He folds JTcc to a shove OTF and JTcc is ahead of me OTT...

I think he was saying you should shove flop to deny equity to that type of hand. At least that's the way I read it.

If I’m not going to fold pre-flop, I would bet much bigger in a straddle pot. Probably 40 and be happy with a steal. I look at your hand as fold/bluff and I’m bluffing bigger; which probably changes everything.

I think it’s natural when everyone checks to you to take a stab on the flop, but I would take the FreeCard. If I had bet bigger pre, I might feel compelled to cb against one opponent, but not as played.

The check-raise at 1/3 is rarely a weak hand. I hear you on exploitable, but you say he’s ‘mostly unknown’ so regardless of what he’s doing lately, it’s hard not to consider the population tendency that this hand is strong.

I would fold pre, then I would fold flop
I’m pretty sure that if I’m villain, I would not consider you a nit. If you call the check-raise, I’m shoving the turn with or without a hand. This should be expected.

You have to open up your range on the button, because position is everything. However, the standard rule at low stakes is ‘fold to aggression’ - too many players become happy and bet more than they should with great hands. Our greatest exploit is to fold when this happens.

This is one of my favorite semi-bluffs. One out of 3 times you hit your hand, so I would consider shoving the check-raise on the flop. However, I don’t like to bluff into likely strong hands.

I think you played it well until the check-raise. Calling to see another card was a mistake, but if you caught a club this hand wouldn’t be under review.

I didn't mean JTcc, because a T hit. He could have a combo draw with no pair and a lower flush draw.

If we are calling to keep his bluffs in, than why are we folding the turn?

I am not sure he is folding a flush draw and gutshot if you push the flop for less than pot.

The turn push is less than pot. You have odds to call if he has AQ. You only don't have odds against a set.

Villain is described as running big bluffs. He probably has a draw or something, but you could be way ahead. This just seems like an awful fold. Not looking to fold 2nd pair and 2nd nut flush draw to that type of player.

Yeah, that's the thing - I never know which part of a Banana read is going to end up being relevant, and which part isn't. It often turns out that is reads are at odds with the reveal.

It's hard for a V to play tight pre and also find opportunities to run massive bluffs post, unless he's blasting off with un-paired over-cards on low-disconnected boards. Maybe he's doing that, or maybe he's just over-playing over-pairs to the board and running into 2P+.

If he's VPIP'ing tight, he doesn't sound tilted. If he's tilted, he's probably not VPIP'ing all that tight. If he's loosened up pre, is it more likely he's going to start running a massive bluff by x/r'ing a draw on the flop, or is it more likely he's going to chase that draw by flatting, just hoping to hit?

Sometimes the read supports Banana's action, but the prior history doesn't necessarily support the read. For instance, We got that one prior HH in which V turned AK into a bluff on J72Xrb, but it was a pot that V opened for a raise, and called a 3B.

We don't know what the bet sizing or SPR in that hand was, or if his opponent was maniacal, or showed weakness in some way, or what the positions were. Maybe V was trying to fold out a chop, or thought his opponent was FOS.

Do we have enough info to think he's going to start blasting off willy-nilly in this hand, where he only flatted from the straddle pre, and we can have all the sets or top 2P on the flop?

Even if we know V is capable of running a zero-equity bluff by x/r'ing with AK in a 3B pot as the original owner on a dry-as-toast J-high board, it doesn't necessarily follow that he's going to play a draw as an x/r here.

It also doesn't seem like "traps with monsters" is enough of a read to discount the likelihood that he'd fast play TP or bottom set on a Q-high, two-tone board. Maybe he traps with monsters when he has the board locked down, or when the board is dry and disconnected.

Some of this stuff aligns with what I see from the MAAG's in my room. There's a type that plays loose-passive pre and will torch multiple buy-ins by calling too much post. There's another type that VPIP's tight and will play fairly face-up post. I've yet to see one who plays loose-passive pre and then becomes LAG post.

Maybe he's "special", and doesn't fit a particular mold, and he's blasting off with a naked NFD or some combo-draw, because he's stuck and tilted. It seems more likely he just has Qx or 33.

So, on a flop of J-7-2, V check-raises and shoves a blank turn with AK. I'm shoving the flop all day. I don't care if he folds worse, especially if he'll bet a turn w/ nothing and I have to fold.

You don't have to fold the turn. As I explained, you have odds to call the turn versus 2-pair. This is a fold because it is a big absolute bet mistake.

I agree. In a tournament with ante, I would open K8s from BTN every time, and maybe from mid position at a tight table. I don't see the need to play hands like this. I would open K9s or Q9s though, with straight possibilities.

With all due respect, and I'm saying this to try to help you grow as a poker player... This is why you're getting run over and hate playing against aggressive players (referring to your thread about rebuy tournaments).

When you open a hand on the button you completely miss the flop and have no pair 2/3 of the time. Middle pair plus a flush draw is WAY up towards the top of your range.

If you're folding this hand to a single flop check raise your opponent can literally bluff raise you with any two cards and just print.

People want to play tight and have other players give them money when they make strong hands, but that's not how the math works in poker. You have to continue a lot with marginal hands, otherwise you overfold and lose by default because you just don't make enough incredibly strong hands.

My reasons for folding turn (erroneous or otherwise):

-I can call if I hit a K, 8, or ♣ or if turn is a total blank (7, 6, 5, 4, 2 non-club) - I'm therefore continuing to the river ~75% of the time.

-This guy has so few bluffs and next to zero fold equity. At my game the fish - once they x/raise or 3-bet pre - are going with it. They cannot fathom raise-folding.

-This guy under-barrels naked flush draws, and under-x/raises naked flush draws (population read). So unless it's specifically a hand like J9cc that picked up open ended....

-I block high and low SC naked flush draws like AKcc KQcc 78cc 89cc, this guy isn't calling 20$ pre with T2cc, his vpip was around 5-15% this session, add in some card-dead but it's still fairly narrow.

-His 3-bet range pre is maybe JJ+ AKs, and because I saw him trying to trap earlier with AA I can't cap him.

-It smells like a set and I don't have the odds vs a set.

I don't think your fold on the turn is that horrendous. I still think you're likely getting the right price, but I don't think the turn fold was like a huge donk move or anything.

I think the bigger issue is just that you're putting yourself in a position where you're folding a hand this strong. Anytime I'm thinking about semi-bluffing with a draw type hand, I ask myself how I'm going to respond if I get raised. You're better off betting with hands that are strong enough to continue/get it in when raised or that are so weak, like a gutshot or whatever, that you don't mind folding when raised. Sometimes with the medium strength draws it's better to play them more passively and make sure you at least see all five cards. That's especially true when you have some sort of showdown value. So maybe you could have just checked back flop, then called turn or something. At least that way you get to see a river, realize your equity and see if your flush draw comes in.

believe it or not, the hand is now played and can't be re-played. so whether he had a plan and executed it or didn't really isn't the purpose of it being posted

also believe it or not, the purpose of posting in these threads is to use the hh to work through your own process and strategy and decide and then post what you would do. not to scold, patronise or praise other postes

Grunch:

as played, I think we shove flop over his raise. we have ok equity vs 33 and the last 88 combo, we're ahead of his flush draws and we have the odds vs a weirdly played Q

yes, I'm pretty much aligned.

sorry if you've posted already, but what are/were your reasons for flatting the flop raise and not shoving?

You don't have the odds against a set on the turn, but occasionally he could have a pair, 2 pair, or a draw. So you easily have odds against his range.

IMO, this...

Doesn't jive with this...

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