snowmen between a rock and a hard place

Ehh... what stage of the tournament? Any other info? What is the buyin?

I probably just fold, but I don't know if that's right. I just feel like HJ putting 30% of his stack in makes it less likely he's folding to a 4-bet shove, and 88 doesn't perform too well against that range. The bigger the buyin or the more we think our opponent is a shark (and the two are correlated), then I might think of 4-bet jamming. But it's purely a question of "Is this guy making a move?" because on value you don't want to get it in here.

I'm folding here.

We can't go set mining and I agree with Nath that Villain is pot committed so if we jam he is calling virtually always. And even on a flop where we have an overpair it's likely we are behind.

The other problem is that if we call then LJ is likely also calling and any overcards would doom us. And LJ could have TT/99 or even JJ because we opened UTG.

Do you have any info on the HJ? It's a pretty close/marginal spot. Have you ever seen them put in 1/3 of their stack and then fold to a jam? The caller's range is also relevant.

In theory the LJ's flat should represent a strong range, and therefore the HJ's raise should also be strong.

In practice I find that people squeeze more following a raise and a flat, because there is more upside to stealing the larger pot, and they perceive the flat to be weak/capped.

The sizing is interesting. My gut feeling is that they likely have some raise/folds off of this sizing. It kind of looks like a size that wants everyone to fold. Why do they not raise all in if they're committed anyway?

Anyway I probably still fold in game the first time a player does this, giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming they're pot committed.

However thinking about the math now, I think a jam is probably best, assuming ICM is not a factor. If we're getting it in with the HJ we're putting in an additional 148 to win 347 (including the dead money in the pot), which means we need to be good 42.7% to break even.

Against TT+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs we have 39% equity, so we're almost there against a reasonable range. Even against a nutted range of JJ+, AK, AQs+ we have 35%, so it's not THAT far off.

He does not have to be raise/folding much at all to push a jam into +EV territory. It would be a huge win if we jammed and added 50% to our stack uncontested. So all things considered I think a jam is likely the best play, but I certainly wouldn't fault you for folding.

When I'm opening in early position with a middle pocket pair and I have a decent stack (here 2BB from a 30BB stack), my mindset is almost always that I'm set-mining unless I get lucky and have a 6-high flop with neither blind in the pot. And, I'm planning to fold to a 3-bet unless it's from a blind (where I'll have post-flop position). When I get a 3-bet from the HJ, and a big sizing, I'm fine letting him steal my 2BB and moving on. He knows he still has the button and the blinds and me to get through, and he's committing a big portion of his stack, so I'm doing poorly against that range and even with implied odds I'm not getting the right price to set mine for 6 more BB. Fold. No biggie.

88 is never much better than a flip against most over-cards. Without fold equity, do you want to flip a coin for your tournament? I would have done the same thing pre-flop, but the LJ’s call encouraged the squeeze play and put you in a tight spot.

Calling seems very bad, it’s raise or fold

Like i say, even if they have KTo, it’s nearly a flip. Unless you think villain is making a move with trash (which does happen) I would fold.

If villain is making a move with undercards, you are a huge favorite and 88 is still slightly favored over over-cards, so it’s not a snap fold.

Playing purely on equity, all-in is the play.
But you will lose a large number of those confrontations, so it’s probably better to protect your stack and wait for a better spot.