Assss this time

You're not loving it if he raises, but think of it this way. He could have just led turn and he chose not to.

Also there's still another street to play so it's not like checking turn gets us to showdown. If we check back turn a player as described might make a massive overbet on the river anyway.

Sometimes by keeping the initiative on the turn and checking back non-spade rivers you can actually get to showdown cheaper. Like if he has two pair or a set he's got to be somewhat scared of a flush. He likely just calls and checks to us again on the river. Whereas if we check back turn he probably bets huge on a blank river and you probably can't fold against the described villain.

Not that I'm saying the possibility of a turn check raise isn't one factor that would support checking back turn.

There are other factors as well though, like getting value from worse. This guy probably calls turn with any pair plus a spade. It's also possible he just calls with a flush. If you bet turn and lower the SPR going to the river, you might then stack those types of hands when the fourth spade rolls off.

All's I'm saying is that people seem to think it's a perfectly fine result if we get check/raised here; it isn't, it's a disaster (as we'll mostly have to fold the nut draw). Doesn't mean there aren't reasons to bet or other things which are good can't happen; just that we should properly evaluate what getting check/raised means (and it sucks horribly, so that should be factored into the equation appropriately).

GcluelessdisasternoobG

You might have to call against the described maniac. It depends how maniacal he is, but you could still be ahead a fair amount. Between the equity and implied odds you have when behind, combined with sometimes still having the best hand, it could be best to call if the described villain were to C/R turn (also depends on sizing, of course).

You're right though. That could all be avoided by checking back turn, like banana did.

I might run this one through a solver and see how it plays against a "good" opponent. Betting turn when the flush completes and you have AA with the A of the suit of the flush is something a solver tends to do a lot. I think it also has to do with blocking so many flush combos and making it much less likely they have a flush.

So I ran it real quick in a solver. Anyone who just wants to see what the solver is doing on the turn can skip down to the chart.

I used 200 BB GTO preflop chart ranges BB 3-bet vs SB call, so take this for what it's worth. It's not exactly the same spot and obviously human ranges will be quite different, but the stack sizes and SPR are true to what Banana presented.

Solver in Banana's spot was range betting flop with 100% of range for 1/3 size, so I just followed that node. If you force a size that isn't used in GTO+ there will be almost no hands in that node and it returns some weird results. I could have reran it and forced Banana's flop size, but I've got some other things I need to do today.

Anyway the solver is mixing on the turn with AsA, but mostly betting with either a small or medium size. Facing a turn check raise all in it is always calling. Of course the solver opponent is going to be perfectly balanced, so having the As blocker is going to make our hand a profitable bluffcatcher.

If we bet medium size on the turn and get called, the solver is mostly checking back on a blank river.

Against a whale, it's hard to say what the best turn line is? I'm sure their range is going to be far different from the solver on all streets.

Anyway, for what it's worth here is the turn chart:

It's disaster because you get blown off your equity with a hand that needs no protection. Rather your hand can cooler opponent if another flush card comes. Maybe you can decorate v whale but against normal player it's the perfect check back. If he has pair plus flush draw you don't have two streets of value left so you can check and make the value on the river anyway. Better to bet AA without the draw

Sent from my CPH2653 using Tapatalk

raise 650?? is this a real question?
there is no reason not to raise here. if he has K9ss or 98ss then nh - i hate you- i hope you step on a lego in the dark then stub your toe.

if you raise and he jams we have a decision but not really because villain folded a "set" on very wet board so he can make hero folds. let him fold his Ks or 9s. folding a set on a wet board is not the same as b/3b river with Ks or 9s blocker as a bluff to get you to fold the As.

also i dont mind the turn check at all, getting x/r on this turn is freaking gross and will have you talking to yourself in the parking lot. villain has a ton of 2pr straights, sets etc. turn check is fine imo

Asking for his address and telling him I'm sending him a gift basket the next day, as I flick in the douchey one-chip call and fast roll my hand.

Then, the next day, I don't send him a gift basket. If he asks about it next time I see him, I say I changed my mind and made it an edible arrangement, but I ate it.

Dude, we lose to two combos. I've punted off more with worse. Sometimes it's just our turn to die.

You may rarely be good, but I'm not folding getting that price against a whale who could be doing whale-like things. That's part of the reason I would likely just jam to begin with, but like I said 800 may be better. It sort of makes it look like you might be trying to save some money in case your bluff gets called.

hmm ok thanks

That's interesting I thought solver would check with the nut draw more
to protect equity

Sent from my CPH2653 using Tapatalk