5NL - Flopped set 3b pot
What do you think of this guys? In hindsight I think I should raise the flop for value against Kx combos, pocket pairs and straight draws.
Turn is a bad card and didn't really know what to do.
River I was getting 5/1 on a call but not sure if I'm good here more than 20% of the time.
Thoughts?
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Pokeit
UTG: $5.18 (104 bb)
MP (Hero): $6.29 (126 bb)
CO: $5.00 (100 bb)
BU: $1.43 (29 bb)
SB: $5.23 (105 bb)
BB: $3.91 (78 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is MP with 9♣ 9♥
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.13, 3 players fold, BB 3-bets to $0.23, Hero calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.48) 3♥ K♦ 9♠ (2 players)
BB bets $0.16, Hero calls $0.16
Turn: ($0.80) J♦ (2 players)
BB bets $0.40, Hero raises to $0.90, BB raises to $2.20, Hero calls $1.30
River: ($5.20) Q♣ (2 players)
BB bets $1.32 (all-in), Hero calls $1.32
7 Replies
Terrible runout, bad luck.
On the flop calling or raising are both fine I believe. Against a bad player I keep it simple and raise.
On the turn you should just fold or go all-in: if they have you beat you won't be able to fold river getting super high pot odds anyway, there is no point in calling. If they have a very poorly played Ak, KQ, AA or a combo draw now is time to put all the money in, many river cards will frighten them or make your hand 2nd best.
Folding seems very very nitty but the combination of 3bet from BB (most microstakes player 3bet only super strong hands from BB) + turn bet/3bet is scary
On the river I would call vs an aggro fish only, even with those odds, you beat nothing.
Terrible runout, bad luck.On the flop calling or raising are both fine I believe. Against a bad player I keep it simple and raise.On the turn you should just fold or go all-in: if they have you beat you won't be able to fold river getting super high pot odds anyway, there is no point in calling. If they have a very poorly played Ak, KQ, AA or a combo draw now is time to put all
Disagree about the river - we still beat mergy fishy value like two pairs, AK, AA way more than 20% of the time.
In theory we often just call flop and turn since villain is the one polarising OOP, we don't want to prevent them from bluffing future streets and we usually get value from their value hands anyway.
However, this player is seemingly an amateur which is different and given their smaller sizes at this SPR, raising will be fine but might be better to delay raising until the turn. I would rather shove than use the small sizing you chose here. If they sized up turn to 3/4+ I would continue calling at this SPR.
As for the river, just don't fold vs an amateur when price is too good and its conceivable they have a worse hand.
In theory we often just call flop and turn since villain is the one polarising OOP, we don't want to prevent them from bluffing future streets and we usually get value from their value hands anyway.However, this player is seemingly an amateur which is different and given their smaller sizes at this SPR, raising will be fine but might be better to delay raising until the turn. I
Thanks for the advice. Basic question for you if you don't mind, by polarising I assume you mean he either has the top or bottom of his range? How can we tell that vs small value betting?
I agree he can have AK, AA etc here but I'm not sure if it's more than 20% of the time. Maybe if we add in a few bluffs that he might have (unlikely at 5nl but not unconceivable IMO), maybe we get the 20% we require
Lets give him all hands that remotely realistically could 3b us preflop and lets assume he knows the runout ahead of the time (ie wont fold a hand that beats us at the river) - he would get here with KK-TT,ATs,KTs,JTs,T9s,ATo, which i think is very very generous (the key is fish 3betting from bb, and also bet, bet-raise, shoving river). If we add AA, AKs (not even the offsuit variation) and one other combo like two pair that we beat - we will have enough equity to call.
It is of course impossible to say what exact range that specific player plays - if you have any stats/hud it would help you a lot - look at 3b, cbet% for flop, turn, river, WTSD, W$SD and we could make a close approximation.
Personally, i think that the fish's range will have way way less T (straights) and more two pair, which makes it even better for us. If we just take TT+, which is straights, sets and AA - we have more than enough to call, and we dont even need to add any two pairs or whatnot.
Note that i dont mention any bluffs anywhere - i dont think there are many, if any, in this line vs a fish. If you have a read that there are, it just becomes a slam dunk call.
Flatting the flop is good. It's a dry board. We want him to continue betting OTT.
I would raise the initial bet OTT to at least half pot.
