Flopped nut flush draw in 5-way pot
1/2 NL. Hero(260), LJ covers, CO covers, BB (170), UTG (150). UTG fish, but OK postflop, comments "she's going to 2/5?" about typical higher stake whale who throws around money, who went through 500 in an hour waiting for a seat. BB sort of competent, also clearly amateur, raises very frequently small, so gets 3! more than usual. Didn't notice anything about LJ or CO, so may be playing OK.
UTG limps, hero UTG+1 raises to 15 with AcJc, LJ, CO, BB, UTG call. Flop (69) Qc7d5c, BB leads for 20, UTG calls, hero ???
22 Replies
Just call. No one is folding a Queen. The last thing you want is to get re-raised and blown off your equity.
Just call. Keep in the dominated draws.
Raising is still viable though. Obviously never raise/folding at this stack depth.
I actually shoved. Maybe I play too much like a tournament player. I was getting good odds to draw, and maybe could get flush over flush.
I actually shoved. Maybe I play too much like a tournament player. I was getting good odds to draw, and maybe could get flush over flush.
My first response totally missed the stack sizes. (Too many threads lately with players 300BB's deep.) Had I realized we were this short, I would have recommended a shove.
Well played.
I actually shoved. Maybe I play too much like a tournament player. I was getting good odds to draw, and maybe could get flush over flush.
Seems like it's probably fine, but sort of makes your hand look like what it is. Also, I would like it better if you didn't have the two deeper stacks behind you yet to act.
It's hard for the shove to be unprofitable though. It's just a matter of whether calling or raising to a smaller size might be more profitable. It's tough to say. Probably the more fold equity you have the more merit there is to jamming. It would be a great result if you picked up $109 uncontested.
Seems like it's probably fine, but sort of makes your hand look like what it is. Also, I would like it better if you didn't have the two deeper stacks behind you yet to act. It's hard for the shove to be unprofitable though. It's just a matter of whether calling or raising to a smaller size might be more profitable. It's tough to say. Probably the more fold equity you have the
Why can’t we shove with AQ KK AA?
Not that we couldn't, but maybe we raise to a smaller sizing with those hands? Honestly if I had those hands I would probably make a small raise (just small enough that if BB or UTG shoved it would reopen the action). That way you encourage the deeper stacks to potentially flat and come along, and then we could reraise all in if BB or UTG jams? I don't know I'm just thinking out loud.
We just never jam here with any low equity type draws. Sometimes it's good to construct a range where you can include some weaker equity R/F bluffs, alongside your nutted hands and high equity draws.
Spoiler
Not sure I am supposed to post results yet, but BB called with Qs5s for 2 pair. I guess that answers what they are calling with in 5-way pots. I was 36% to win and it bricked out.
Knowing his hand, shoving was -EV compared to folding, but not by a lot. Kind of weird for BB to lead small first to act with 2 pair, but he was obviously a fish.
Everyone has about a 2% chance of flopping 2 pair or a 12% chance of flopping a set with a pp, so it wasn't that likely I would be up against more than one pair. Some possibility I get called by a combo draw like 8c6c I crush. Also very good to get allin 3-ways, and better to take the pot with the shove.
After the hand, I was thinking calling might have been more profitable, getting a good price to draw.
Grunch:
PRE - seems like we could raise bigger in this line-up.
FLOP - seems like a straightforward call. BB is donking into 27 people. Gee, I wonder if he has a Q?
This sounds like me as I am accused of brute force. The reason I don’t shove in this spot is v donked and told me he’s got a queen, so I just call.
If they checked to me, I shove like you did.
I probably could have gone even bigger preflop, but 7.5xBB at one limper was a large raise and it usually didn't get 4 callers.
I maybe didn't hand read well. I saw the weak bet and call, and saw it as more dead money. If checked to me, a shove would have been for 3.2x pot. Then I would have had to decide between shove, bet, or check.
If BB had QJs or something like that, he would have a close decision if he was playing correctly. I have either a strong draw or a better Q or over pair. He would be getting good pot odds too, about 3-2.
Was surprised to see 2 pair, which seemed unlikely on that board. Not really much chance anyone had 2 pair or a set. I would be about 45% against a Q putting in about 40% of the money. If I get 2 callers or take it preflop, that is very good for me. If I run into a set HU, that is a significant loss. Running into 2 pair, like I did was a slight expected loss.
Calling for 20 would have been profitable. Possibly get into a difficult situation on the turn if I miss.
Fair question.
I don't know, obviously. My hunch is that when someone donks into multiple people, they like their hand, and if they're working off a short stack, it does seem like they'd stack off.
Seems like it could be another example of how many of us here view these hand histories through the lens of how we'd play as V, rather than accepting that V may just be terrible.
I think the best takeaway from this hand is that we should be aggressively attacking this guy's checking ranges. When players donk their strong hands on boards where they shouldn't have a donking range, it caps their range when they check.
The jam is clearly fine in a vacuum when you factor in fold equity plus some amount of equity when called. You can maybe make a mental note after what he showed up with here, and if it holds consistent that he always has nutted hands when he donks you could play more cautiously against his future donks. Even if that's the case the nut flush draw is so strong it's probably still correct to get it in along with your strongest made hands. Calling flop and folding to a turn jam would not be ideal as you really want to realize your equity with a draw this strong.
Part of the reason I jammed is if I call, I could get in a bad situation on the turn if I miss. Someone could bet, I call, and someone else raise. I might put more in and have to fold because I wouldn't have the odds.
I saw it as weak action with the smallish bet and call. Didn't think it through that BB probably was leading with top pair. I was 45% against a Q, putting in 40% of the money. I figured I might take it down and a 3-way allin was generally good for me also. Didn't think it likely anyone had more than one pair. Flipping against Kc7c, but way ahead of 8c6c and similar and I could get called light by a weak flush draw.
In retrospect, BB was short stacked and even if he was playing correctly, it would be a close decision with a Q, since I might have a strong draw, and he would be getting pot odds.
Thought 2-pair was unlikely, because hard to make on the flop, and hard to have 2-pair on that board. Sets are also fairly hard to make. Fairly likely someone had a Q though.
BB was likely terrible. Calling with Q5s and leading the flop small with 2-pair doesn't seem great. He was raising small with a wide range, which was maybe better than limping.
There is $110 in the pot -- these guys have $135 or less behind. Shove or fold. I can't even imagine calling. If LJ or CO hit part of this and call, so be it (they shouldn't if they are "playing OK").
You are playing against people who call raises from OOP w/ Q5s when they are short. Not much else you can do except go bigger pre next time.
You are playing against people who call raises from OOP w/ Q5s when they are short. Not much else you can do except go bigger pre next time.
Go bigger than 7.5xBB to get them to fold Q5s?
$15 is a normal open in my games. Let them call Q5s for $20 or $25. Punish them, especially from EP.
Part of the reason I jammed is if I call, I could get in a bad situation on the turn if I miss. Someone could bet, I call, and someone else raise. I might put more in and have to fold because I wouldn't have the odds.I saw it as weak action with the smallish bet and call. Didn't think it through that BB probably was leading with top pair. I was 45% against a Q, putting in 40% o
If they're calling preflop with Q5s, they're likely also calling with stuff like Q6s, which potentially folds to a jam from the preflop raiser, thinking they're outkicked.
It's definitely good to look for a pattern when they lead though. Many bad players lead into multiple players with marginal hands, and will still fold to a raise. If they only lead with strong hands and are calling off for stacks every time, then you will want to play it differently next time.
I was surprised he led out small with 2 pair, because I wouldn't play it that way. Not sure you can read from that that when he leads out small it is always a big hand. Kind of weird to lead small OOP 5-ways with anything though.
I think I would probably just call here. In addition to the fact that this could be a big hand trying to induce a raise, I want to see if someone behind me who hasn’t acted yet wants to pad my pot odds by also calling. We are getting straight odds to draw already so we need to be really sure shoving is better than calling to want to do it.
