Nitty by Nature 8: Confirmed Busto TR (6/14-6/22)

Stone bubble alert...

MINI TRIP DAY 2 (3/1/26)

I sleep halfway well, but still wake up with plenty of time to kill before the 11AM tournament start. I grab a basic two egg and hash brown breakfast at the Copper Whisk Cafe in the Orleans, which is their all-purpose diner restaurant. The food was fine for the price and the service was much faster than when I went this past summer. No complaints.

After that, I plop down to watch the beginning of the early Knicks-Spurs game. It's an East Coast morning away game for the Spurs, so naturally I take them at -2.5 for the price of a couple burritos. They run out to a 19-9 lead and I'm feeling pretty good about my bet. The next time I check the score, it's 29-21 for NYK. The Knicks never look back, obliterating San Antonio in a romp. What type of idiot would bet on the Spurs in a 10AM game in New York?

This type of idiot.

The poker tournament hasn't even started and I'm already making bad plays. That might not be a good omen.

Onward to the felt we go. "The Sunday Special" is probably the marquee event in the Orleans recurring schedule. $200 gets you 25k chips and a $100 add-on gets you another 25k, so effectively it's a $300 tournament with 50k starting stack. It attracts a big field and today will be no exception. We'll end up with 345 entries and some hefty prizes up top.

My luck on the felt turns out to be much better than my luck on the hardcourt today. I run my 50k stack up to 125k within the first few hours.

I'd like to discuss interesting spots, but there weren't many hands that seemed notable to me. In some ways, the key hands were the hands I didn't play.

HAND 1: I open AcQc from UTG to 1300 at 300/500 blinds. Tight ABC older guy in LP raises to 5200. I love my hand and want to continue, but this sizing is problematic. It doesn't give me a very friendly price to spike the ace against KK/QQ/JJ/TT type stuff or to hit the miracle flop. I fold and Villain shows AA. I highlight this play because I think his huge 3-bet size (when he was in position) really killed his action for no reason at all. Holding the best hand in the game, he bet so big that I felt compelled to fold the exact type of hand that he wants to milk. Had he opted for a more reasonable sizing like 4k, I likely would've peeled and been in a world of trouble.

Instead, I get to feel like Phil Hellmuth...

As the tournament progresses and we approach the bubble, my stack remains mostly healthy without ever going full NVIDIA to the moon. I'm consistently below the mathematical average for the field, yet hovering around a safe 20BB. I'm never truly desperate. Still, there's lingering bubble anxiety after yesterday's near-cash experience and several other similar situations from other recent Vegas trips. Surely I can't be the stone bubble two days in a row? I've been in a lot of these spots recently and experienced a variety of disappointments.

In the end, the bubble is drama-free for me. I win critical pots with KK (2x) and TT. I never get paid in full, but I survive into the money with a workable stack.

I feel a sense of relief, but am mostly focused on trying to chip up for the super deep run. Another interesting hand comes up.

HAND 2: I'm in the BB with QJo and a short stack. After putting in 30k for the BB and 30k for the ante, I have maybe 230k behind. It folds to tight older guy in the BTN. He opens to 100k. SB folds. I am in a weird spot here, holding a very playable hand against an open from a stealing seat. However, this player doesn't strike me as a GTO bot who will be opening wide enough. Beyond that, we again have the issue of the weird pre-flop sizing. Even on a nub against a tight range, I can justify calling a 2x min-raise with QJ to see a flop and try to spike. Facing the awkward 100k sizing, I feel forced into push-fold mode. As I think I'm probably well behind here, I just elect to fold the QJ. The frustrated BTN shows AA, lamenting the lack of action. I only mention this hand and the first one as examples of how bad sizing can chase off action and kill your value. There was no reason for him to go that big with AA against the blinds. Had he gone 2x, I probably get stacked if I spike the Q or J on the flop. Instead I folded and survived for more pay jumps. The teachable moment is to have a reason for specific sizings in specific situations, and not to chase away your action when you have great hands in position.

Since I've been the victim of many bad beats over the years, it's only fair to mention the beats I doled out tonight. I won AQ > AK aipf against a short stack. I won A8 > AQ against a different short stack. I was not at risk in these hands and I think the shoves were completely justifiable in the situations, but it sure helps when you get bailed out. The card gods took some pity on me today. After surviving a few pay jumps, I had my eyes on the final table and the five figure scores up top.

However, the mega bink was not my destiny on this night. I got many shoves through, but could never find the double as the stacks swelled around me.

Eventually I got my last 5BB all-in pre with KJ against Q9 and lost to another 9 on the flop like last night.

I went out in the top 18 of the 345 person field for a small four figure payout. I never had chips in the later stages and don't feel I could have done anything differently to avoid this outcome, so I felt no real disappointment. Instead I felt grateful for a positive result.

I enjoyed my time at the Orleans, but after spending more than a full day on the property, I was ready to say farewell.

I hitched a Lyft over to Harrah's, which is typically my home base in the desert. It felt good to be back, like reuniting with an old friend.

I have a tradition from many tournament runs at the Venetian of eating a celebration dinner in either Grand Lux or Noodle Asia after I bag or cash. One nice aspect of the Venetian compared to some of the CET properties is that their restaurants are open late. After dumping my stuff in the room at Harrah's, I made the short walk over to Noodle Asia. I went with the Szechwan beef noodle, which their menu claims is their signature dish. Nice flavor and texture. It hit the spot well enough.

Now the question is what to do tomorrow? The satellites to PokerGO and Wynn never materialized because I was still in the Orleans event. Had I binked big at the Orleans ($2-3k+), I would have extended my stay and fired at least one bullet at the upcoming multi-flight Wynn $1100. If I bricked the Orleans tournament on Sunday, I would've fired the Aria $200 daily on Monday. After pocketing a modest score, I'm stuck in the middle between those two extremes, which gives me a few options. I can potentially take a shot at the Wynn $600 2-7 Triple Draw event tomorrow. I must be a (big?) loser in that field, but it would be a learning experience and I've been working on my 2-7 game in the lab. Alternatively, I can play some cash and/or just putter around until my flight (late in the evening). I'll see what I'm thinking when I wake up tomorrow.

For now, I'm grateful to have broken a cold streak in Vegas, even if the score wasn't monumental.

It's a strange feeling to see the bankroll growing instead of shrinking. I can get used to it.

GG WP, although it's never fun to bust that close to a Final Table (I experienced something similar in a slightly smaller tourney here in Malta yesterday evening with an 11th place).

But that Orleans tourney sounds like fun, maybe I should try it on my next trip! Out of curiosity, at what time did you get eliminated? I am wondering just how late into the night it goes.

I think the QJ is a very easy fold against an OMC who takes that sizing, although it's painful. But we still have more than enough chips left, and can be happy that he doesn't understand how to maximize value. Against a min-raise we definitely peel, and possibly get in trouble.

Congrats on the cash.

My vote is for the shot take today!

A west coast team playing an early game on the east coast is not usually a good spot to bet the travelling team in any sport.

Congrats on the cash! Cashing is always good 😀

Great run!

Yeah I say play the Wynn event. It’ll make your trip memorable, one way or another!

Yes, nice cash. Well played in both the spots mentioned.

Well done!

Nice cash! I ALMOST jumped in the car Saturday night to play in that thing. I was able to get a comped room at the Orleans, even. 10 pm Saturday night was my decision point to get my crap packed and on the road and arrive at a reasonable time. But I would've had to play a long tournament after driving all night. Ultimately I was just too lazy, in part because I'm old as dirt and don't enjoy the ridiculous road trip antics like I used to.

TonySoprano will prob be playing it too, maybe you can get some tips from him.

San Antonio is prob closer to the east coast than the west coast. 😀

The Friday night one has an identical structure, I think. I've played it several times, but haven't had the chance to play the Sunday.

They used to run a free shuttle that dropped off near the ferris wheel. Vegas has become a lot less convenient the last few years.

Fun little thing I noticed today:

The 22nd place finisher in the $150 I played on Saturday was Hasim Rahman.

https://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/event.p...

If you follow boxing at all, you might recognize that name.

Former WBO heavyweight champ who fought Holyfield, Lewis, and a Klitschko.

Apparently a capable fighter on the felt as well...

Has the swelling in his forehead finally gone down?

he knocked out Lennox Lewis cold, basically at Lewis' peak. Huge shock at the time.

Lewis destroyed him in the rematch but still...

Lennox was like 35.

Bling blang blaow!

MINI TRIP DAY 3 (3/2/26)

I wake up around 9:30 AM with no concrete plan for the day. As I mull my options, I begin to lean towards the idea of going to Wynn and firing the 2-7 Triple Draw. I've been toying with the idea for a week or two. Wynn is my favorite venue in town and it would be a shame to miss the Millions series completely. As the $1100 NLHE doesn't have its day two until Thursday, the one day nature of this 2-7 event fits into my schedule much better. I have an 8:40 PM flight booked for tonight, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it. I figure I'll either bust before then or have enough chips to justify paying to push it back a day.

I spend a portion of the morning watching some of the 2024 $10k 2-7 Triple Draw on PokerGO. I watched the final table live and have been working back through it in the last week, logging a couple hours of study with the knowledge that there would be triple draw events landing both in this trip window and also in my summer window (the $1.5k WSOP event on June 20th). The sum of my mixed game experience to date is two small HORSE tournaments, some hours logged in the dealer's choice cash games at Resorts World, play money 8-game on PokerStars, and whatever I've gleaned from watching scraps of various WSOP streams over the years. All of which is to say I have a basic idea of how to play 2-7, but am a relative novice.

I browse some CardPlayer strategy articles while I drink a Starbucks latte in the Harrah's lobby. I make the hike over to Wynn. I exchange my $600 for a ticket. With some additional time to kill, I bring up an ancient Negreanu 2-7 strategy video on YouTube and watch some scraps of it in the Wynn tournament area outer tables. Before long, it's time to take my seat. I have a sinking feeling. Have I made a terrible mistake registering for this? I must be one of the greenest players in the room.

Before long, I am at a 6-handed table with Jon Turner, Matt Vengrin, and Aaron Cummings. If you don't recognize that last name, know that he won the $1.5k 2-7 TD bracelet in 2025...and in 2024. You could say he is pretty good at this variant. Luckily I am on his left, so I get to act after him and observe his procedures.

I make some decent hands early and hover around 35-45k off 35k starting. Then the mistakes and misplays mount up. I make a questionable payoff or two. I accidentally toss the wrong card once. I lose track of how many draws are left in one hand and break what would've been the winner. Oof.

Here's the secret of poker though: There is no substitute for running pure.

In the middle portion of the day, I make several 7s and win some big pots. My play also improves slightly.

I might have been the weakest player at the table, but they couldn't get rid of me because I kept hitting draws. Bling, blang, blaow. 76432, 76532, 85432, the hits keep coming.

Eventually we're creeping closer and closer to 8:40PM, when I'm supposed to be boarding a plane home. I thought I would've busted by now.

My game of flight chicken has come home to roost. With a decent stack, but still far from the money, I make the uncomfortable decision to push the flight back a day. I have no hotel lined up for tonight, so that's an additional complication. We'll cross that bridge when we get to it. I'm 2/2 lifetime playing flight chicken in poker tournaments, and hopefully I can make it 3/3 tonight with another cash. Please, poker gods, reward me once again for my reckless abandon.

I play a tight, ABC game, picking up enough hands to tread water. Before long we are on the stone money bubble once again, with 10 players left and 9 spots paid.

This is interesting. I'm either going to cash 2/3 tournaments on this trip or stone bubble 2/3 tournaments on this trip.

I'm 8/10 in chips at this point, in an uncomfortable ICM spot, marginally ahead of two pure shorties.

One of the shorties fades a stronger draw for his tournament life with one card to come. Ah, crap. Is it my turn to bubble again?

Spoiler

Show

We fade the bubble and lock up the cash, as the other shortie on the other table eventually busts in 10th.

I'm thrilled with the cash, but now it's time to chase the big payouts and the trophy.

Let me be very transparent in saying I ran well in this tournament to get to this point. I was not one of the 9 best players in the field. Not even close.

With that said, I do go pretty card dead at this stage of the tournament, looking down at a lot of paint and broadway nonsense.

I'm on a micro stack in MP. There's a raise in front of me. I have 62xxx, a relatively crap hand. I'm too short not to gamble though, with the blinds soon to swallow me alive. I commit to the pot. We end up going four ways. I back my way into a straight like Josh Arieh in the famous Bryce Yockey hand, making 65432. I pitch the 6 on the last draw. I don't make a wheel like Josh, but I do catch the 85432. 8 smooth is good enough to scoop everything, and we achieve the miraculous QUAD UP. Suddenly I am on a healthy stack again.

Soon we are at the unofficial final table of 7, and then the real final table of 6.

During this time I pick up no playable hands. Eventually I am the short stack again. All I can do is pick a spot to gamble.

A big stack opens from early position. I have 852xx a couple seats behind. Not ideal, but likely too strong to fold when I will be all-in blind soon.

I commit to the pot. I improve to 8752. I am all-in. We both draw one on the end.

My opponent makes his 8. I make a jack. I am out inside the top 5, but short of the trophy and the mega bucks.

The Cinderella run has ended...

...but what a run it was. I can only feel grateful for the beginner's luck. This was my first cash in anything outside NLHE. I will not say that I deserved this result or that it proves I am a strong triple draw player. I played an ABC game, made some monster hands in timely moments, and leaned on general tournament sense built in the NLHE streets over thousands of online events and hundreds of live tournaments. I probably don't even realize how pure I ran because I have no frame of reference. All I know is that I was a massive longshot to run this deep, and it came home. If I was the lucky fish tonight, know that I've been on the other end of that equation many, many times in NLHE.

So, thank you to Tony and TJ for pushing me to play this event. It worked out nicely.

Operation mini trip will end as an unequivocal success. I got to play a bunch of poker and add some numbers to the summer poker bankroll.

After busting the 2-7 and collecting my payout, I hit Grand Lux for a modest celebration dinner.

I managed to snag a last minute bed at Horseshoe. I'll crash here tonight before heading home tomorrow.

Brilliant - congratulations!

So..5th?

Congratulations! Great run.

I’ve observed that it seems like in mixed games, what you catch and which draws you hit seem even more important than how the standard setups in NLH go.

Nice trip! 2 outta 3 cash and a bubble is pretty dam good! The bubble always hurts but it means you are getting there. Well played.

Ouch, nice table draw. Was Jon offering any last longers?

I'm not buying your claim that you're a novice at this game though. All your HH's contained a deuce. Doing something right at least.

Congrats on the FT and cash, and keeping up your perfect flight chicken record.

Nice! Thanks for sticking around and sharing the TR.

I don't have a wealth of experience, but it felt like 87xxx v. 86xxx was the most common crying call-and-lose situation in this game.

It led me to think that 87xxx is almost like the KJ or AT type of hands in hold 'em that often make second best. You almost don't want to make your hand when you have it.

Meanwhile losing with a 7 of any kind is like getting set-over-set or a similar cooler.

No last longers, but he was talking about his basketball bet and was relatively chatty in general.

He plays fast and seemed to appreciate that our table was quick to act.

You're right, I tried to live by "don't leave home without a deuce". I started with 77222 in one hand, which was a fun one.