KKÂ’s donked into.

What would be an appropriate time to wait for the reveal?

I agree with you regarding v bets.

In this case here, you ended up posting that you bet $60 on the turn / she called / the river card came / she checked. At that point there you should stop action and ask what everyone would do. Give it a day or two of simmering / responses, and when it dies down then post what you did and the result for post mortem. Posting your action / result immediately can influence responses.

Gwelcometotheforum!G

9x

Actually when an opponent donks heads up, their range is usually BS. If they use a small size I'd be inclined to think it's a weak top pair, a strong second pair, a decent draw, or just total air.

When they use a big size, it's skewed more towards value, but rarely if ever a hand that beats an over-pair. They tend to go for the x/r with 2P+.

If she could beat KK, she'd barrel turn. Her line looks like a stop bet hoping to see a cheaper river. Maybe some showdown value hand like TP, or a lower over-pair.

I didn't expect QQ, but I've seen recs play JJ and a bunch of 1P combos this way. It's like they're trying to stop us from bluffing them off their equity when we have AK.

Did you read the player description? Am I the only one who did?

There's nothing in the read that suggests we're 100% behind when she donks the flop. We might. We might not. It's not clear, so we call and evaluate. And then she turns her hand face up on the table on the turn; a straightforward player isn't checking two pear+ on the turn on a drawy board and risking the free card to beat them.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I guarantee you she is not donking the flop w/ 9x for $40.

I did read it. OP said he doesn't know what her flop donk range is. He said he hasn't seen her open raise. He didn't say if she'd 3B, but I'd think he'd have noticed if she had, if he noticed she hasn't opened yet, and does a lot of limping. He also said she won't fold a flush draw or over-pair for any price.

Seems like exactly the type of player who'll flat call pre with all her PP's, over-bet donk the flop with TP+ and her flush draws, then shut it down and go into a check-call shell when we call the donk.

If we bet $55 on the turn, what's the worst that can happen? She x/r's? Okay, then we fold. She calls? Okay, then we can decide what we want to do on the river, assuming she checks to us again.

If she's not laying down TP+ or a flush draw, let's target the inelastic portion of her range on the turn.

OK, but I still think we caught her with one of the few hands she plays this way.

It doesn't matter how many hands she plays this way. It could be 2, or 20. We beat almost all of them.

Don't mistake me - I did not and never would expect QQ here. But I think TT/JJ are in range, as well as AK/AQs, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if this was just TP. That's a lot of hands.

It would surprise me if she showed up with 2P+ and played it this way. I can't remember if I've ever seen anyone over-bet donk the flop and then check turn. It's bizarre.

It just smells like 1P stop-betting or JT trying to trap. If we bet 1/2 pot on turn and she x/r's, it's a trivial fold, because in a million bazillion years, I'm not giving anyone credit for over-bet donking 1P and then turning it into a check-raise bluff on the turn after we call.

If she flats, and then donks river, I'd probably over-fold to anything more than 2/3 pot, and snap call anything less than that. If she flats turn and checks river, I'd probably go for thin value, targeting TT/JJ and 9x, and again fold if she x/r's.

It's 1/3. She's a 50 year old dealer. She's not a crusher taking this line to induce us into over-playing KK. She's a rec trying to stop us from bombing it and putting her in the blender when we have AK.

And I disagree with the bolded. No biggie, though. It worked great for OP 😉

Even after the reveal? So... you're just assigning her the nuts, even when she has QQ?

Reality is hard to deny, but don't let me stop you from trying.

If we check back turn we are likely to get heroed on most rivers.

Yes, even after the reveal, since QQ is about the only hand she has that doesn't beat us after she overdonks the flop, which I believe and have stated multiple times.

Not looking to beat you up over this, or drag this out. Only want to point this out to you, in the hopes it may help you spot a potential leak.

We know she took this line with QQ. It appears you're saying that she would also take this line with a lot of hands that beat KK, but apparently not JJ/TT.

Can you construct a logically consistent explanation for why V would decide that QQ is good enough to over-bet donk here, but JJ/TT would not be, and why she might structure her over-bet donk range as QQ & a bunch of hands that beat KK?

My point is that it doesn't seem logically consistent for her to decide that she's going to over-bet donk QQ and a bunch of much better hands like 2P+, but not JJ or TT. It would also seem illogical for you to believe she's doing that.

Prior to the reveal, you said:

It appears that prior to finding out she had QQ in this line, you believed everything in her range has KK beat. With the reveal, you're adding QQ to that range, and saying it's the only hand in her range we can actually beat. Why NOT add JJ/TT to her range? Why exclude them?

For that matter, why not take all the hands that beat KK on the flop out of her range? In my opinion, it seems more logically consistent to give her a range of 9x-QQ than a range of QQ & 2P+.

You can ignore all this if you want. But I think it points to a flaw in your reasoning if you can't revise your thinking even after you're given new information, and can't effectively reconcile the new information with your prior assumptions.

She played this pretty face-up. If you're assuming V's always have KK (and I assume AA?) beat in this line, I'd think you're way over-folding facing a big donk.

Just adding to the above, I'm struggling to figure out how anyone would construct a donk over-bet range as QQ & 2P+ on the flop. What are they targeting for value? If they're targeting TP+, I'd think the range would just be 2P+, not 2P+ & also specifically QQ, which can't beat AA/KK, only TP and JJ/TT.

I can't fathom why anyone would decide QQ is good enough to donk here, but not JJ/TT.

I never said I was folding.

With all due respect, I think you're missing the point. I hope unintentionally, not deliberately.

Your take was that she always has KK beat here. Mine was that she never has KK beat here. The point isn't whether or not she over-bet donks 9x, or how many hands are in her over-bet donk range.

The point is that she's repping a very narrow range here, and other than a fairly optimistically played JT, we have her entire range beat when she takes this line.

The logic for taking this line with QQ extends to JJ/TT as well, but does not extend to AA.

She's 3B'ing AA pre, because it's the nuts. Very likely, she 3B's KK pre. AA/KK, and maybe AK are her 3B'ing range pre. When she flats with QQ, she's also flatting JJ and TT, and probably a lot of other lower PP's.

If she flopped a set, she'd go for a check raise. It doesn't make sense for her to over-bet donk QQ and sets, but check JJ/TT.

When low stakes players don't 3B TT-QQ pre, it's because they're not comfortable playing those PP's from OOP in a 3B pot. They're looking to pot-control until they see a "safe" flop.

So when she over-bet donks the flop, and we flat call, she goes into a check-call shell. She's not folding to a modestly sized turn bet. She might fold to an over-bet.

Her donk is a stop-bet. She's saying, "don't try to bluff me. I have a 'real' hand." But if she had KK beat, she wouldn't slow down on the turn. She'd barrel. As soon as she checks, we should know we have the best hand.

Her range here is exactly TT-QQ, not QQ & a bunch of stuff that beats KK. It's never AA.

You can believe otherwise, but I think that will likely hurt your win rate.

You said betting the turn is lighting money on fire, and asked what she's going to fold, as if we'd be bluffing:

I'm sorry to be this blunt, but your take on this situation is backwards. We'd be betting the turn for value, not bluffing, and it's printing, because she's not folding anything that takes this line.

I'd have called flop, bet half-pot on turn, and bombed the river, praying she calls, not praying she folds.