66 w 30bb in BB vs mega limp fest
A friend sent me this hand that I found pretty fascinating. What do you guys think?
Commerce Casino $800 XL Bounty ($3k bounties on day 2)
9 handed Blinds 4k 8k/8k Bullet #3
Hero in BB 225k (28BB)
UTG (80BB) Limp 8k, MP (55BB) Limp 8k, CO (35BB) Limp 8k, SB (60k) limp 8k
Hero in BB with 6s6c - What do we do with 66 and 28BB?
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15 Replies
Is it day 1 or day 2? If it is day 1, and UTG player has not shown propensity to limp/shove big hands, I shove.
If it is day 2, I check and we are essentially set mining, as I would expect our fold equity to be low and our shove to be snapped by either UTG or MP due to the oversized bounty in play.
Really depends on the stage of the tournament and what we think of the villains. AALegend covered the stage part, so I'll cover the villain part: If they're limping way too wide and largely folding afterward, that's a good reason to shove. If you've got old nits up front who will limp hands like 88-99, then just check.
Is it day 1 or day 2? If it is day 1, and UTG player has not shown propensity to limp/shove big hands, I shove.
If it is day 2, I check and we are essentially set mining, as I would expect our fold equity to be low and our shove to be snapped by either UTG or MP due to the oversized bounty in play.
He said day 2.
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OK, then I just check, because if you shove you're gonna get called by more hands you don't want to be called by (suited Broadway type hands) than hands you do (smaller pairs, A5s).
You want to play 66 in a limpfest. Easy check. You also have too much to shove that much and you don't want to raise less than a shove OOP.
I don’t see why friend would do anything but check as he can’t win a bounty from any of the other callers and they are all incentivize to call because of his bounty. What am I missing here?
I agree with what everyone has written, but there is a counterargument. Based on H's chip stack relative to the Vs at his table, it looks like H needs more chips to start winning the sizable bounties here. I think it's fair to assume, if H jams, the most likely outcome is just one caller/re-jammer. And the most likely holding he will face is two over cards -- of course, there will sometimes be bigger pairs that call. With all the dead money in the pot, V will certainly be +cEV in a race vs. one opponent with holding over cards. If H survives that race, he is much better positioned to start grabbing some giant bounties.
Sure, but is this preferable to seeing the flop, ie 70z% of the common cards, first? Obviously, if he hits a set he could quintuple up with a preflop shove if everyone calls.
And we don’t really know if he is short stacked to the remaining players but I agree that may be likely given these stacks.
If you hit a set, you will probably gain lots of chips.
Agree, hitting a set is optimal. But that only happens on 12% of flops -- and we will still lose with a set in a small subset of those (as I am painfully finding out recently). We don't often get to see a turn when we check our pf option.
Again, I am in agreement with checking our option here. But think there is legitimacy based on what I had written above to shoving pf -- not as easy a decision when we factor in future game implications.
Note that if he had a covering stack and the average stacks of the caller were a bit smaller there would be arguments for checking, since in this spot that would probably increase his chances of stacking someone and win their bounty if he hits his set and one of the other players hits top pair or preferably two pair.
I don't jam here in non-bounty tournaments because UTG limper can have AA. I do jam here with AK/AQ/AJ type hands because we block AA hands.
In a bounty tournament our problem is that one of the guys who limped before us could have 77+ hands. And they wouldn't fold to the jam.
The other problem is that if we hit a set we have a shot at getting SB's bounty. So checking preflop is critical.
I don’t know if it’s a typo that sb has 60k vs 60bbs, I read it that bb is covered by all players, perhaps OP will give us some more details about the hand….
66 with 30bb in a limped pot from the BB is a dream spot. You have a set mining hand with great implied odds against multiple players who are showing weakness by limping. Check the flop, if you hit your set go for max value because limpers rarely have strong hands. If you miss just check fold - dont try to bluff a multiway limped pot.
Exactly, this is a dream spot. Don't mess it up by raising.