Facing Underbluffed Line with TPTK

A 3bet is going to get us into commitment SPR territory with TP where I like offering poor 8:1 odds, so I'd go about $60ish preflop against MP's stack. With our raise size we would have created an SPR of 3.5 which is a little cuspy. A 3bet to $60 would have created an SPR of 2.6 which is a slam dunk commit spot. At least against the opponent we expected to face (surprised we ended up facing the CO and not the MP).

SPR is an awkward 4.7 against the CO. We offered him about ~17:1 IO to stack us, which ain't great for setminers, but ain't completely horrendous either, especially considering he can make us play for stacks at any time. So the first question I would ask myself is am I cool with playing for stacks against this guy. At this SPR, I'm almost never cool with that. So the next question I would ask myself is am I cool with folding to a check/raise if I bet (because we really should since a check/raise is followed up with a turn bet like almost always). If I am cool with folding to a check/raise, then I bet/fold. If I'm not, then I check behind with an eye of getting to showdown.

Awkward spot on the turn. I mean, could this ever be JTsooted? We're getting terrible odds to chase the flush draw... but there is a slight (very slight?) chance we're ahead? Ug. ETA: But in the end our hand reads as KK+ (especially if we have anything like the OMC image I assume you might have?) and this guy doesn't seem to care.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Short answer no. Don't have the odds. Still short answer, if we are calling AQ here it'll be this combo specifically but this is assuming we're up against a range that has bluffs and I'm genuinely unsure how much SCs people have in the call/call line pre-flop. I imagine we just see 99/66 here a lot.

Ouch. Not sure what he has, but that would be a weird bluff line for sure. Would he check/raise w/ KQ, JT? He could have the other AQ. Otherwise, seems like 99/66.

Turn is fold or shove, but I lean toward fold.

I'm fine with calling flop raise folding to turn bet. I think his sizing is very scary OTT - if he jammed maybe I would think more about it.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. At least $50. I'd probably just go $60.

FLOP - We can / should c-bet a tad smaller. Like 1/3 pot, or $35, no more than $40.

As played - what sort of range are you giving him when he double-flats pre? That's usually going to be a condensed range of mid-PP's and Broadway combos.

So, I might think he has 99 her at some frequency, and maybe 66 occasionally, but he could also have some worse QX, and some draws with JT.

His x/r size is...there's no better way to put this...completely FOS. This is not the size that they use when they x/r 2P+. This is weak QX or JT, IMO.

I don't think it makes sense to 3B, because if we do we're just making him fold all his bluffs and continue with hands that actually do beat us.

TURN - Actually, I do think V's line is bluffy. Bluffy as hell. I don't think he's getting here this way with QT, so this looks exactly like KQ, QJ, or JT.

It's time to jam. If he's on a draw that bricks, he may not put the rest in on the river if we flat call again. There's $500 in the pot and $200 behind. Just stick it in.

Hey OP. are you sure about your read? Preflop, tight aggressive regular calls a RFI and then also calls a 3bet? That is a passive play.

Now the same V check raises the flop? What else can V have but a set? Have you ever seen V make a big turn or river bluff?

In the hand, if V were tight aggressive, and had some bluffs, I would just call down this gross hand and barf.

If V is in fact passive, I favor a nitty fold to the raise on the flop. Your average player just doesn’t bluff enough.

V was set-mining, called and expected me to fold like I usually do. It’s funny to me that people think an aggressive player never just calls. A TAG doesn’t have to play like a maniac.

I let it go on the turn
He showed his buddy his hand, so I spoke up and he revealed 99

I wonder the EV of folding TPTK to a check-raise on the flop. If we’re facing sets, we’re not likely to catch up, but folding seems wrong

Been told I need to fold less

I'll show myself out.

I pointed at this in my first response. I'm genuinely curious how many SCs we expect to see here. My first instinct says very few to none but lots of pairs. Others seem to think SCs are part of their range when they go flat/flat pre.

This was a good fold though imo.

If we folded TP every single time to an aggressive postflop action when not committed for stacks at LLSNL, it certainly wouldn't be optimal... but it would probably still be a very good overall method, imo.

GfoldingmywaytovictoryG

My experience may be colored by where I play, but in the games I play in people show up with all kinds of nonsense (even stuff like suited gappers) when they flat an open then flat a 3-bet.

The thing is the flop checkraise is so small. We've got to call $55 for a pot that will be $325.

I don't think we can fold TPTK for that sizing, especially when there are many possible straight draws. Let me rephrase: If your opponent is not a total face up nit who always has a set when they check raise, then we can't fold for that sizing.

We only need it to check down and be good 17% of the time to call. We have position and a BDFD.

I have to wonder if V used smaller sizing as a hard exploit of hero's observed tendency to over-fold facing aggression.

You mean to keep hero in when they have a set? That could be but pot odds are still pot odds. Lots of opponents just have no clue when it comes to sizing.

Yes, to all that, but I was more thinking about the turn sizing.

Any thoughts on what type of SPR we want in cash where we can easily stack off with tp tk or overpairs? I always find it kinda hard to get to certain sprs when games are deep- say 150+ bb games (some games I’ve played can be 200-500bb deep).

Also to OP, when it goes open 12, flat, I like popping it up more than 45 in position. might make this $50-70…. Against the right splashy villians- I would say $70-80 is fine if we know they are going to call with trashier hands we crush most of the time.

Also don’t mind betting more on the flop. Wouldn’t mind a 60-80% pot size bet. We trying to get it in here against worse Qx and charging draws max price.

Also never folding flop there. It’s an annoying spot bc you run into 2pair, sets a lot but they should x raise some draw type hands also to be balanced. Now if it’s an omc, you can kinda discount the draws but still prolly a call: you have tptk. Folding to this x raise would mean you are super exploitable and overfolding spots.

V barely has the implied odds to set mine preflop. He called 33 to win 520 + 12 dead money. As it turned out, because you are a better player than V, calling preflop with 99 is a huge mistake because you correctly folded. He needed to be deeper against you to call.

I would assume a tight aggressive V 3bets 99 preflop. But even if V wasn’t a solid TAG, you read him correctly. Well played.

In light of the reveal, I'm trying to get inside V's head and figure out what he thinks he's doing...

His double-flat pre is a fishy play, especially for someone described as a solid TAG reg. He either isn't all that solid, or he's doing something exploitative, for some reason, which leads me to wonder if he's targeting hero, because of his own reads.

I'm not sure what to make of his min-click x/r, after finding out he has middle set. I'd think he was either hoping to induce a shove from over-pairs, or maybe he was leaving himself an escape hatch, if he was concerned hero had QQ.

I'm still not sure what he's doing on the turn. I can't imagine he'd fold to a jam at this point. So it seems like he's decided hero never has better than TPTK, and so he's just trying to milk some more value out of hero. Perhaps he (correctly) views hero as nitty, and thinks hero will over-fold to a larger turn bet.

He's taken a weird line that I don't think I'd take against most opponents. But against a nitty opponent who tends to play face up, I think it's creative, and helps define hero's range to TPTK or an over-pair getting to the turn.

If hero was capable of showing up on the flop with draws or bottom set, or showing up on the turn with 2P, sets, and straights, I don't think V would take this line. I'd think he'd 3B pre, or fold to our 3B, and x/r bigger, and slow down on the turn.

You made the correct decision to fold turn, but if V has you pegged as a nit who over-folds, he can take this line with all his bluffs, and print. He can just float wide pre, and start applying pressure to your narrow range post, on a ton of boards.

I don't think the solution is to play looser post flop. I think the solution is to widen your 3B range pre, so you can show up on the flop and turn with more than just TPTK and over-pairs. Also consider checking back the flop some with value, and sizing down with your c-bets in position.

There are certainly players in my pool who I'm folding the flop xr to. However, we need to call against someone labeled as a tight aggresive reg. Against most 1/3 players I don't think we can infer much from his smal flop xr. If anything, players in my pool who xr flops seem to be more weighted towards nutted hands rather than draws when they do xr.

If you don't think he has much of a spaz factor on the turn, then I think it's a fold. He doesn't seem like he's looking for a fold with either his flop or turn sizings. I think you should assume that you're usually effectively calling 375 to win 700; so worse than 2:1.