ATo OOP squeeze
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Game is playing very loose and we're getting tilted. We're not getting any playable hands and are runni
Agree that there's a good chance he had it.
I don't agree that there's any chance we show up with 77 here. That's due to the flop check raise, and why I was saying I would have preferred a cbet over a check raise on the flop. This deep on this board a check raise really isn't consistent with how we would play (especially weaker) overpairs.
I guess we could occasionally show up with something like 87s or A7s that took a bluff line with a gutshot and got there on the river, but the river card is much better for the whale with the wide range.
Preflop, button straddler, you open Ad Ts to 20 from the LJ.
Completely fine. In a splashy game you could even 25-30 but opening is mandatory. BTN whales, calls, expected
Flop pot is $60 board: 5d 4s 3d
Your x here is good, BTN bets 20, you x/r to 80, this is excellent.
You have a nut diamond draw, gutshot to the nuts, 2 overs sometimes live.
Equity vs almost anything is huge
Against typical whale range:
Pair + draw, any diamond, random pair, A2/A3/A5, 76, total nonsense
You are crush that range in equity
Raise also prints because whales hate folding draws, he calls totally expected
Turn pot 220 board 5d 4s 3d 2h
This is a very interesting card, it completes A2 straight, 76 straight, gives you the nuts, you barrel 125, I like this bet and hers the reasons: whale still calls with diamonds, pair + diamond, 65, A5, random nonsense.
You unblock folds and you can still get paid if river diamonds.
He calls and range now becomes : made hands, A2, 76, sets rare. Draws, any diamonds, pair + diamonds, random pair, and remember he calls anything.
River pot 470 board 5d 4s 3d 2h 6c, you now have A high, but the pairs nothing and bricks diamonds
This card is very good for your bluff range, your line represents, A2, 76, sets, overpairs slowplayed, meanwhile villain has A2, most fish raise turn, rarely has 76 preflop, has tons of missed diamonds
But the key factor is the player type, you described the villain as Latino whale, calls anything, loves gambling, chases everything.
This is the most important part of the hand, against this player, bluffing becomes terrible, because he'll call with: 5x, 4x, 33, A5, A3, random 6x, sometimes just A high, and whales hate folding rivers, river options: Jam
This would be a very polar solver bluff, but against this villain? He will hero call with literally anything, so a jam is bad
Large bluff: 300-400, still bad, whale calls because you missed diamonds.
Small bluffs 150-200, sometimes works vs thinking players but not against stations
Check is the most exploitative play because: you still beat missed draws, whale might bluff them, whales calls too wide when facing bets, so checking wins vs busted draws, loses minimal vs pairs, avoids torching 400-900
