Facing PSB with Turned Combo Draw

Huh? Pre is fine and standard, and cbet probably good. Turn is obviously not a fold. Nasty spot and maybe need to call turn.

Well we never folding.

I don't think we have fold equity vs this sizing and board textures.

We call and see a river.

V has alot of 2ps, some pair+st8d, some combodraws.

If river is a blank, and v checks river might be a bet.

Call turn in position. If by chance you had AK for the nuts you would want to call a bet this big too, and give him the opportunity to bluff into you on the river.

That turn card is better for your range and the BB should never be leading. I would expect when he does lead for this sizing it's with a pretty strong range though. He probably has two pair a lot. Even a straight is possible, as are some worse draws.

The play is to call and utilize your positional advantage on the river. You'll be able to play the river pretty much perfectly based on what the card is and what your opponent does.

Don't listen to this guy. He's a troll that plays 2 NL and just talks crap to everyone.

Your preflop raise size was obviously not standard, but it's fine to exploitatively raise bigger with a tight range when you're playing 1/3.

I would have preferred a bit of a bigger bet on the flop, but both betting like you did and checking are fine with your hand.

Don't listen to the whales.

Preflop is bad. You didn't mention the other stacks at the table but Villain only has 100BB's and that's too short to be opening this hand. Also, the player most likely to call your open is the button, leaving you without position. This hand makes 2nd best hands too often. Reverse implied odds and all that. And it's not a very good drawing hand. Nut flushes are good, but this hand offers no straight possibilities. Broadway aces and wheel aces are better candidates for your opening range here. These middle-aces are money-pits.

As played, don't c-bet this flop. Take the free card. This flop hits V's range fairly well and getting check/raised would be a disaster.

As played, turn is close. The bet offers slightly worse than 2 to 1 odds. So you probably need 35%-ish to call. You have 9 flush outs, 3 Kings, and 3 8s for straights. Even if those outs are all clean, you've only got a 28-30%-ish chance to improve. However, I don't think all your outs are clean. You can lose to bigger straights on a river 8. And you'll likely be chopping pretty often on K rivers. So the only way to make the turn call profitable is if you can reliably value bet your flushes on the river.

I don't think that's the case. V's turn bet screams "I'm scared of the flush draw". I don't think he'll pay us off.

When I open like you did here, I am bluffing or I would have folded. Therefore, I smashed this flop and now have a semi-bluff flush draw.

I pot this flop, might even slightly overbet
It’s not multi-way, I am not a solver and the pressure is coming with this semi-bluff. If villain folds, I’m happy - bluff successful.

If called, it’s never great when bluffing, but villain likely doesn’t donk the turn now and you get a FreeCard.

As played, I probably fold and give him my $30
Folding to aggression is rarely wrong in the low limits.

This thread:
OP: I have A9
Me: Fold pre
Forum: Don't listen to the troll!! Raising pre-flop is STANDARD!!

Another recent thread (where I haven't posted):

OP: I have A9
Forum: FOLD PRE!

Frickin' amazing.

Forum tilt, lol

Open pre from CO with A9s is standard and fine. If you can't play A9s profitably from the CO it's time for a new hobby. Sizing is not standard though. Wouldn't be opening CO for 5x, not a single hand.

Flop cbet is fine/standard too, not sure about sizing. Wouldn't worry too much about getting check raised on a passive table.

Turn is interesting and I'm not 100% sure what I think is best. I'm not folding but not a fan of calling.

This is possibly true but not sure we should care. We're the only ones who can rep QQ/JJ and AK with a shove. We're also never dead if called and villain has $200 behind, we should have some if not plenty of fold equity. My only concern is I'm not a fan of bluffing vs 1/3 population who calls too much.

This might be the answer.

Welcome to the forum.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - c-betting is fine. Might want to size down a tad when V is short stacked.

TURN - yeesh.

This line is going to be pretty under-bluffed by most recs. We could have as few as 11 outs to the nut straight or flush and be chopping with AK. Might only have 8 outs to the nuts.

It seems like we might have the implied odds, if he's always going to call when our flush comes in, but we can't assume he will. If he's over-bet donking, it's likely because he's afraid the flush will come in, which makes him more likely to fold when we get there.

I probably rage-fold now, and after I calm down I mentally thank V for not letting me continue to bluff.

Just read the rest of the thread.

All due respect to GWF and Pablito, I think they're playing a more theoretically correct game against more skilled competition, and may not be as willing to steer into the hard exploits of the low stakes population.

This is 1/3 vs a loose passive rec-fish playing off 100BB's. Yes, calling turn IP and evaluating the river is an option. I'm not hating on it.

I don't think this V has as wide a range as we might think in this line. We can't be sure he'll pay off when we get there or fold to our bluff when we don't.

He's letting us off the hook by telling us he loves his hand. All we need to do is swim away.

You can't push, because you don't have enough equity on the turn. It is a psb, so you are getting 2-1 immediate odds. Villain could have a combo draw you have dominated. It seems like a call in position, although a little marginal.

A9s is nowhere near the bottom of my opening range from CO, and you can probably open it from ep at 1/3. I would usually open smaller for late position, since you often don't get called, , but 5x is usually fine and standard at 1/3.

You do realize if we give him top two pair we still almost have immediate odds to make the call on the turn? We don't need to win an extra bet when we get there on the river often at all to push this call into clear +EV territory.

Doc, your biggest leak is massively overfolding.

And yours is this wackadoo compulsion to play break-even poker.

LOL @ open folding A9s from the CO being a superior play.

Cbet is OK but I could be convinced by checking flop maybe to CR... not sure...would probably just cbet albeit I might go smaller

Turn seems a clear call. Opponent's hand is pretty face up as two pair (with the occasional straight). You have little to no fold equity, loads of outs most of which are clean, and although immediate odds aren't amazing, you should be able to make some money on the river in most scenarios, at least enough to make this a profitable call.

Results: H folds and feels like a nit.

As others have said, I thought it very unlikely that I had any fold equity OTT. Also, LP 1/3 players in my pool often do not 3! with AK, so he can have that and I would just be chopping OTR if a K comes. I also don't think I can get much value OTR with 4 to a straight if has something other than an A.

I didn't think I would be able to get his last 195 OTR if I hit my flush, so I didn't think the IO were there. I struggle with calculating my equity again various assigned ranges when I'm at the table. Also, I thought there was a good chance that the Jd and Td were dirty, giving me potentially less than 9 clean outs.

flat, hes not folding.

also tiny thing, i would size up flop to 25. we have good equity on the flop when we get an opportunity to check back and see both cards for a single bet in these passive games.

I didn't realize. Thanks for the continued education (no sarcasm).

I suspect that the bluff frequency varies by location. I mostly play in Philadelphia, but I had the opportunity to play in two Virginia card rooms this week, and in my observation, the player pool at 1/3 in the Mid-Atlantic region just massively under-bluffs and over-calls. The pool's collective range that bets big on late streets is just insanely value-heavy.

I may be massively over-folding according to theory, but in practice it seems like I'm still too stationy. I can't remember the last time I successfully picked off a massive bluff on a late street, or got a huge bluff through, even in spots where I should look insanely nutted. Every time I call a big river bet, they just always have it.

In this instance, I'm not weighting him towards 2P. Based on the read and my observation, he almost always turned a straight.

One of the consistent challenges with analyzing hands here is that when we get a reveal after our hero bluff catches and loses, we tend to point out that V's line is so obviously face up and value heavy. Yet prior to the reveal, either OP or some in the crowd will assign V a range that has a lot of reasonable bluffs. But a lot of the low stakes regs here will probably back me up when I say the pool doesn't find all those bluffs or thin value bets.

The theory jockies here will hate on the fold, because theory. They're not wrong, in theory.

In practice, I think a call at low stakes is probably losing money long term, absent a read that V is a spewy bluff machine.

Nice first thread in the forum. Your milkshake brought all the usual boys to the yard. Stick around and see the endless shenanigans.

why is deuce not banned yet. mods asleep?

Are you familiar with the rule of two and four?

It's not really a rule, just a quick way to estimate equity when you have a draw.

The idea is that you take your number of outs and multiply that by two to get an estimate of your equity with one card to come, or multiply your outs by four to get an estimate of your equity with two cards to come. You can also discount outs by subtracting them as you see fit.

So in this hand you had 15 outs to a straight or flush x 2 (with one card to come) = ~ 30% chance of making your hand.

However if you're not sure if some of your straight outs are clean, maybe you would subtract around 3 of your straight outs (non diamond 8s give you a weaker straight). In that case 12 outs x 2= ~24% equity.

So a case could be made for folding if you really think they always have a straight, like Doc is arguing.

The thing is you're in position and there's also a chance you make a flush, and he jams into you, or something like that. So you've got to factor some implied odds in as well.

There also should usually be some chance they're bluffing.

So suffice it to say if you do fold you want to be VERY confident in your read that they always have a straight, because if they're bluffing you're going to be folding way too often with too much of your range and they can pretty much profitably bluff you with any two cards here.

So you played two sessions with a dozen randoms. Now you have reliable reads about "insane" and "massive" imbalances being committed by the tens of thousands of poker players between Georgia and New Jersey

Where can I buy your book?

Im too +EV to ban.

Wanna ban somebody...how about Doc? The bad faith in his posts is absolutely toxic.

I've wondered whether the reason deuce hasn't been banned is because he is actually a deranged mod posting under an alternate account. It might not be true but at least it's a funny idea.

Right around the time deuce showed up and started talking shit to everyone, all-in mclovin had just gotten into a beef with another poster and posted that he quit.

It would be pretty funny if deuce was actually mclovin, and I would have to give him credit for that troll.

The posting styles are different though so I don't think that's the case.

Anyway I do wonder if most of the mods may have really just quit or something though. There have also been a bunch of spam posts showing up lately that don't seem to be getting deleted.

You can read it for free. It's on your mom's nightstand.