Ongoing VP TR, PART 2!

Yup, I know what you mean exactly. Which is why I’ll land and just not care about gambling or even poker. I have a TON of comps the first 5 days, will just have an amazing time by the pool and at restaurants. I will play eventually obviously, but pretty sure I want to just bury myself deep in poker and stay away from pits completely.

Hopefully we are both due a huge comeback this year!

wise words leon, and even smarter attitude about your trip muck.
all the rungood to you both

This is like when I go on a poker trip and tell myself "just enjoy that you're playing and don't get tilted and just play each hand for itself", inevitably just the absolute most insane mind-melting beats and circumstances haha.

I'll tell you, if I wasn't already a superstitious person, gambling can make a superstitious person out of anyone. I'm a math nerd that started off playing poker bc edges, math, skill blah blah blah. But all you need is to see the dice find a way to seven out in the most soul-crushing ways in such stereotypical fashion, to have the VP machines defy probability over and over...

... even my home game with my family is an example. I keep telling myself to stay even keeled, it's just for fun, I'm literally playing with my family etc... but then the ridiculous beats come flooding in and the only conclusion I can draw is- the cards are alive. The dice are alive. And they're conspiring with the universe to test me.

same. After 20+ years of poker and 20+ years running a small headhunting firm, I am a giant believer in momentum both positive and negative. There is generally a 3ish month period every 18 months or so with either/both of my pastimes where I simply can't win a pot/catch a break. Like when 4 or 5 bad news things have happened in the past month, it feels like when there's a phone call or a message from someone I'm in the middle of a process with, I can answer the phone and KNOW it's gonna be a **** sandwich. Likewise in poker downswings, I'm totally certain I'm gonna lose flips or get run down.

I can't explain it but it's definitely a real thing

Completely agree and I'm going to shape my play based on this phenomenon from here on out. The math is the math, obv, but streaks are real. I can't explain it either, but that doesn't change the fact that it happens. So, it's pretty clear I'm on a vicious downswing right now. Clearly, the move is scale back, limit exposure and don't try to force the win. If I play and win, I'll let the wins come to me and if I find myself in another hot streak, well it's on then. Until the universe proves itself, I'll just play small, scared and scarcely at all.

It's f##king ridiculous, obv, but it can't hurt.

Sorry to hear about the bad run, leon.

my entire outlook on the day is a result of morning coffee wordle
really bad if the first traffic signal is red or rainbow in connections

Well, it turns out I'll be visiting Vegas sooner than I thought. I got invited to a VIP NLHE poker tournament which on the surface appears to be a juicy freeroll. 80 runners, all at the final table get paid, 1st is 250k and 10th is 10k. Here's the situation and my questions- on the surface this appears to be similar to the one I played in in Nov but there are some big differences to me. Parameters-
- I suspect, once again, I will be the only person there with a clue
- NO BUY IN, but instead the structure is garbage and one can rebuy/add on unlimited times in the first four levels (more below)

Structure- 10k in chips, levels are 15 min
level 1- blinds 100/200
level 2- 200/400
level 3- 300/600
level 4 (end of rebuys, addon etc)- 500/1000
level 5- 1k/2k

At any time before end of level 4, one can rebuy for 5k$ (charity) for 10k chips. Any time you bust before end level 4, one can double rebuy for 10k, 30k chips. At end of level 4, anyone can add on for 5k, 50k chips.

My personal situation- I obv want to make a score but want to minimize expense. I'm ok with just the 5k addon, but I refuse to spend more than that. Followers of this thread know my bankroll has been decimated recently. SO, the question has to do with approach-

Part of me feels the best move is play ultra tight, survive until end of level 4, add on for 5k where I'll have at least 25 BB. If I don't play a hand in the first 4 levels, I'll have 6700 + 50k chips (assuming I post once each level). So at that point it's a crap shoot tourney for 5k, starting with ~ 25BB and I'll likely be one of the shorter stacks.

On the other hand, I could just play hard from the get go and hope to catch cards. I'm sure there will be people playing fast and loose, prepared to rebuy etc over and over since "it's for charity". If I make it thru level 4 worst case is I add on for 5k anyways. I'm not sure I'd do this, I wonder if an additional 25BB is worth 5k in expense. If I bust, well, I took my free shot and at least it didn't cost me a dime.

Questions-
1. Ultra tight, make it to add on period and play a 25BB turbo for 5k, or try to run it up and hopefully build a stack for free?
2. If I run it up, say double starting stack, do I addon for 5k and the additional 25BB?

Any input welcome. As you can see, I'm genuinely torn. Normally I'd say 5k for 25BB is a no-brainer, but it's going to be a crap shoot anyways and I had such a bad experience in Nov and I KNOW I'm going to be ultra-tilted if I add on for 5k and don't meaningfully increase my chances of making the final table. So much of this comes down to unknown factors- if there are some ridiculous amounts of rebuys before level 4, I could see there being some absolutely massive stacks against me, regardless if I add on or not.

the jump from 300/600 to 5/1 and then 1/2 is really icky. If it then goes 2/4 and 4/8 then it's basically a Hyper

IDK - definitely don't add on before end level 4 if pre then $5k gets 10k chips and at that point $5k gets 50k chips

Is that the same with rebuys - an important question...could you get knocked out in say level 2 and then wait to rebuy end level 4 and get the 50k?
or is the 50k only for add ons and in this scenario you would have to rebuy as/when you got knocked out in order to qualify for the add on

If so, you REALLY don't want to play a hand before end level 4 because the risk of busting outweighs the benefits of winning chips

I don't think you mention it, if possible I think the best thing to do would be to not enter til level 4 if that gets you the starting stack and then the 50k add on

Yes, rebuy is any time before end level 4 and gets 10k chips. Double rebuy is if you bust and gets 30k chips. Zero chance I do either of those. Add on is a separate thing, anyone can do that for 5k, ONLY after level 4 ends. So you have to survive.

It's really a "survive until level 4 to play a 5k turbo" vs "take a free shot and hope for the best".

I've kind of come to a conclusion after talking with D- at the end of the day, any cent I put in a machine is by definition -EV. Any opportunity to sit with these people is +EV. So 5k to sit with them with 25BB, 80 runners total is still +EV over sticking that 5k in a machine.

Oh, and you have to start level 1, but under the "tight" strategy I'm prepared to just post/fold into level 4. I almost DON'T want AA in that scenario, bc AA? Maybe I'd open fold AA and win some sklansky bux/confused looks from people.

I think what wrath was asking is for your initial "free" entry do you have to be there at the start of level 1 or can you show up with 5 minutes left in level 4? survive 5 minutes on the free entry and add on for 5k, essentially "late regging" and starting with roughly 60k.

It seems to me that it's not really a freeroll given all the chips that others will eventually pay for and then you have to decide if you want to keep up with the Joneses.

Also, if people have no clue, there are going to be ridiculous, impossible-to-anticipate landmines everywhere. Sounds like an absolute crap shoot. Sort of like trying to play an online freeroll where people are frequently going all-in stupidly light and your A-K suited gets felted by 2-2 for heaps. If you feel you are going to be massively tilted when some ninny gets it all-in bad and then hits their miracle card on the river, is it really an experience worth chasing?

Yes, there is a percentage of time where your superior skills win you a huge score. But there is also a much higher percentage of the time where you go on massive trip tilt because your opponents play a style that is equal parts stupid and lucky.

If you are capable of just shaking off a bad beat with a smile, then I say take your chance at the big payout. But if losing to a nincompoop, who thinks 8-9 off is the nuts and plays for stacks on an A-K-8 rainbow flop against you when you opened the pre flop betting as UTG, is going to wreck your trip when another 8 hits on the river, then I say value emotional health and avoid playing in the first place.

If you ask me, what you are describing is not close to a freeroll. When you consider how much money a lot of the players are probably going to pay on rebuys/chip add-ons, it's sort of a high roller. Even worse, it's a high roller where massive, massive, massive variance seems unavoidable.

Your tolerance to poker nonsense is what I think should guide your decision whether or not to play.

As for style of play, I guess playing tight early on like you describe makes some sense. But that still doesn't protect your K-K from losing to A-2 for stacks when the soul crushing Ace hits on the turn.

Agree with all of this. Here's my strategy, courtesy of thinking more and AI. Yes, I'll be folding AA and I'll be mentally prepared to just spend the 5k.

Here is the comprehensive battle plan for your $250,000 charity tournament, leveraging your 20 years of pro experience against a "rich and bad" field.
Phase 1: The "Social Ghost" (Levels 1–4)
Goal: Reach the Level 5 break having spent $0 and preserving ~8,500+ chips.
The "Play": Fold 100% of your hands. Even AA and KK are folded to avoid the "risk of ruin" (a $10k rebuy).
Social Camouflage: Do not sit out. Stay in your seat, order a drink (leverage that high tolerance), and be the friendliest person at the table.
The "Stall": Use your social persona to slow the game down. Finish sentences before folding, ask the dealer questions, and engage neighbors in conversation.
The Math: By playing only ~12–15 hands (1.5 orbits), you minimize "blind bleed" while appearing to be a "gambler who just can't catch a card."
The Result: You enter the break with ~8,500 chips having spent nothing.
Phase 2: The "Buy-In" (The Break)
Goal: Reset your tournament for the "Freezeout" portion.
Action: Pay the $5,000 add-on for 50,000 chips.
Total Stack: ~58,500 chips.
Positioning: At Level 5 (1,000/2,000), you start the real game with ~29 Big Blinds. While others spent $20k+ for similar stacks, your "cost per chip" is the lowest in the room.
Phase 3: The "Mid-Stack Ninja" (Level 5+)
Goal: Use your 29BB stack to double up through "bad" big stacks.
The Pivot: Shift immediately from "Ghost" to Aggressive Shove-Fold.
Primary Move (The 3-Bet Shove): Identify a loose/wide opener (the rich guys who "puntted" earlier). Shove your entire 29BB over their 3BB raise.
The Fold Equity: 29BB is a "scary" amount of chips to call off for an amateur.
The Call Equity: Because of your "drinking/social" image from Phase 1, they will likely underestimate your range and call off with dominated hands like
or
.
Targeting: Aim for the 100k+ stacks. One successful "shove-and-collect" (blinds + opener) adds ~20% to your stack. One double-up puts you at ~125k (60+ BB)—a championship-contending stack.
Summary of the "Edge"
Financial: You are "buying" a $250k top-prize seat for $5k, while the field is paying a $15k–$30k "premium" to gamble early.
Psychological: You are the only player who is not on tilt, not frustrated by bad beats, and completely focused on the mathematically optimal shove-fold ranges.
Social: You have successfully "hidden" 20 years of pro experience behind a glass of scotch and a friendly smile.
Final Verdict: Fold the first hour, pay the $5k, and then play "professional bully" until you're at the Final Table. Good luck!

Disagree with rppoker in the sense that if winning money is reasonably important to you when playing poker, playing with clueless fish is absolutely better in every way than playing with better players. Losing to boneheaded plays is just part of the game, and the inability to handle that is a giant leak.

That said, I remember, leon, that you were super tilted after busting the last tournament to some bad play, but IIRC, it seemed to me your tilt was more derived from the fact that it was such an amazing opportunity and you just couldn't catch a break, and not so much about the way other people were playing. To the extent you can, I think you just need to bake that risk into it in advance, and go into this thing with the mindset that you're probably going to lose.

I think you need advice from someone who has a really strong grasp on ICM. That's not me. But the question is just really whether, given the total prize pool and the expected distribution of chips, 50,000 chips are worth more than $5k, taking into account you're likely much better than most of the field.

Based on how the last tournament experience impacted your trip mood--and current bankroll concerns--I think there's some definite merit to just treating it as a true freeroll and trying to spin up the 10k chips. You get 16.66% of the chips you'd otherwise pay $5k for (an infinite % increase in your free buy-in), you would not be shackled in the early levels and could take maximum advantage of the people who are going to just punt in the first hour, and when you inevitably bust (I said you should just assume you will bust), you will have lost nothing. You also at least give yourself an opportunity to run up the 10k stack to 50k+ without paying anything, putting you in such a better spot than spending 5k for those chips.

By comparison, your current strat will have you sitting there unable to play any hands while you watch people do the most donkey sh*t imaginable, which will probably tilt you before you even pay the $5k, and then most often you're going to just lose the $5k and be frustrated.

In your situation, I'd want a pretty big overlay on the $5k investment before taking that approach.

This post hits everything.

$250k up top? Dang that’s nice.

Can you max late reg or do you have to be seated at the start?

If max late reg is allowed I’d do that. Come in at the end of level 4 and pay the $5k for the add-on. 60k chips at 1k/2k is okay.

If not allowed then I’d only be playing premiums all-in or fold during the re-buy period and hope you hold if one of the donkeys calls you.

I don't think folding AA in the first four levels would be correct. Ripping it has to be better. Obv you get some risk of busting but being able to accumulate does also increase your chances at the top prize. Seems reasonable also if there are limped pots happening (possible in this) to see flops with suited aces and pocket pairs to get paid with sets/nut flushes.

This is all if you can't do as described and just come in at break with 60k chips for $5k all in.

There's definitely an overlay on the $5k entry if you're looking at it from the perspective of would I pay $5k to enter this tournament. But you also have the option to pay $0 to play the same tournament with less chips. What I mean is I'd want an overlay on top of the ICM value of the 50k chips. That's different than whether the tournament has an overlay in the traditional definition (prize pool exceeds total entries). Like, if ICM says that 50k chips are worth exactly $5,000 USD, given your bankroll and the impact on your mood, I'd pass on the break-even add-on and just play it as a freeroll. But if an ICM expert were to tell you that the 50k tournament chips are likely worth $7,500 USD+, well, I think you just need to bite the bullet and play the way you plan on (fold until the add-on and then start playing).

I absolutely would not trust AI to do anything approximating an ICM analysis. You might try posting in the MTT forums; if you really want to know if your approach is optimal, I think you need advice from someone a lot more experienced with ICM math than the LVL forum can provide.

BUT, I think you're less concerned with what's max $ev and more concerned with what's max trip ev (within limits), and I think that makes it a close call either way and you should probably just go with your gut. Spending $5k for a shot at $250k up top can't be terrible.

I agree with this, too.

Agree w/ ripping AA (screw "risk of ruin") . In short: Personally, I'd try to play my A game and see where I am at the 5k add on (I'm talking the 50K after level 4) -- it should be obvious based on other stack sizes if it's worth the add-on. I don't think I'd bother with the 5k for 10, 000 chips before level 4 -- let the poker gods decide if you make it to the end of level 4.

Even after the add on at the end of level 4, you’ll have to navigate through the field to get down to the money in the final table.

I’d enter from the start, and play tight but fearlessly. The worst players will be making the biggest mistakes in the first 4 levels. Land mines happen, but it’s part of the game, imo.

I'm with what TJ is saying. Make hands, you'll be better at betting them for value than the other players.

Don't chase without really good odds. No FPS, just play solid, straightforward poker for the opening part.

But, aside from all this strategy talk, just run good.

You need to read the book Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

You would soon realize what a fallacy it is to believe in lucky/unlucky streaks and the ability to take advantage of them.