1/3 going in guns blazing?

The value of a one-card BDNFD is not all about actually making a flush.

1. You block nut flush draws. That's less strong draws that your opponent will have, which decreases your opponent's frequency of continuing when you barrel into them. If they limp call ATs and worse that's seven strong draw combos you block that are not in their range to call or raise vs your cbet/turn bet.

Having the As makes it more likely your opponent will fold.

2. When a third spade hits you have an ideal hand to continue bluffing. You block the nuts and decrease the chances of them having a flush by approximately half. So when your cbet and/or turn bet does get called, you still have an opportunity to steal the entire pot you built when a spade hits on the turn or river. It's basically a backup plan to steal the pot on future streets in case your flop or turn steals don't succeed. A two-card BD draw does not have the benefit of blocking the front door nut flush.

Again, having the As makes it more likely your opponent will fold.

I already did. I believe Vs range by the river if he check calls turn and checks river is primarily QJ (excluding QJss), JT, J9, TT, 99, 98, maybe a sliver of AJ/KJ and some spade draws like KQss, KTss, K9ss, 65ss. (AJ/KQss/KJ all raise pre, flop and turn with some frequency)

If a spade hits, everything folds except the flushes though flushes sometimes lead.

When a straight comes in everything folds except 2p or straights.

When a brick hits, AJ/KJ probably call to the extent they are there, QJ tanks and mixes, everything else is folding.

That's a realistic range because V is folding weaker either flop or turn, and is raising stronger either pre, flop or turn. And failing that will lead with stronger sometimes on the river.

OTT v is wider, probably has hands like QT, Q9, KT, K9, AT, A9, KQ, AQ, A8, A7 with one or no spades that likely give up turn. Those are the main types of hands we are probably folding out (though my goal with the turn is to get called by most hands).

You're a really charming fellow. Good to see poker bringing out the best people.

This is your signature leak. Actually it's a signature leak for a lot of "thinking" players. But you feel compelled to puke your faults all over the internet, so you're getting singled out.

You can't just say something that's ostensibly true and use it as the basis of your over-arching strategy for the hand. Math doesn't work like that. You're talking about SEVEN combos. SEVEN freakin' hands in a range that has easily 200 or more. So villain's range is 3% narrower. So what?? A multi-street bluff requires a massively high success rate to be +EV. We're not even past the flop yet and you're already rummaging through the couch cushions for fold equity.

You have been asked multiple times now to provide a range against which you can profitably barrel on this board. You have consistently refused to do it. One can only conclude that it's because you know you'll be proven wrong and look like a fool. But it's too late. Those things have already happened. You might as well just admit the obvious. This hand is an iffy open to begin with. This board is too wet to not have smashed V's range. He's got too many hands with too much equity to be "overfolding" to any bullshit bluff. That was actually your first instinct in this thread if I recall correctly. Then you went and "simulated" the hand substituting an unexploitable machine for a loose passive human. The robot had some combos Q7 that would fold to a bluff, and you took that as the green light to get stacks in.

Those machines have RUINED YOU. They're ruining a generation of poker players.

I'm fine with it though. Hold 'em really should be a dead game by now. But it's people like you that keep the poker economy going strong.

Should do what most have done and put him on ignore. You're arguing with a 2nl reg who can't beat 10nl but believes his advice is valuable. It's not.

No. You can't tell me he raises KJ preflop but limps TT/99. You don't get those combos. I also don't think that QT would have invested $70 to get here. I'll give you JT (9 combos), J9 (12), 98 (12).

There are 21 combos of AJ/KJ. What's a sliver? Wanna say 7?

You named 5 flush draws QT, KQ, KT, K9, 65. But what about Q9, 54, 96, or some other Kx/Qx suited rag hand that limped preflop? Maybe you're right about KQ raising pre. Let's round it off and say he has 8 flush combos.

So you've got him getting to the river with 48 hands.

You want to jam $220 to win $187. That has to work 54% of the time. 58% of Villain's range is top pair!

You're not going to get enough folds for that to work.

The true story is so much worse. Your cockamamie scheme starts on the turn where you invested $50 in this hand with no pair, no draw and no hope. That has to be accounted for in the +EV calculation. You also aren't accounting for the times you lose to a donk bet on the river. Or get trapped by the nuts.

But we don't even have to get into that. We can stop right here because you've already torpedoed this hand into a bottomless trench of negative EV.

What are you talking about?? I'm beating 10NL for 20BB/100.

I've decided to NOT deposit any of my own actual money on a poker site. So I'm playing the stakes my $2 promotional gift starting bankroll allows. I'm not embarrassed or ashamed in the slightest. The more you try to mock me for being successful, the more you expose yourself as the abject loser you really are.

Feel free to point out which sentence of poker strategy you disagree with. Otherwise, it's pretty easy to see who's the troll here.

Yes, so I need V to fold approximately 2 combos of top pair, which isn't even all of J9. In reality, I believe V is folding J9 and JT pure and mixing with QJ. Back to my original post where I said "if we believe we can get a J to fold". If you're saying that you have a read that this player is never folding Jx, or in your home game nobody would ever fold Jx, then you shouldn't run this bluff.

As it turns out, we don't even need them to fold that many Jx. Just a portion of them. So if V is folding some Jx the bluff works. That was a lot of work. You can put your shoes back on now. I'm not going to waste my time spoon-feeding you next time.

He doesn't have QJ. And getting him to fold weak Jacks only makes it a break even play for the river only. You still haven't made back the EV you torched on the turn. Or cushioned your EV enough to absorb the losses to river donks, suckouts, and slowplays.

You cherry picked 50 hands that fit your argument but in reality V is getting to the river with more like 150 hands and you need to fold out a hell of a lot more than J9 to make your multi-street spew profitable.

Post a reasonable range that he limp calls with preflop deuce if you want me to break down combos. I need to get you to agree on the premises first. You're arguing he doesn't have QJ which is one of the most reasonable combos for him to limp call pre, flop top pair and continue calling with.

To address your previous post, no having the As is not the center of my overarching strategy. It just makes AsT a better combo to bluff with than if we had AT without the ace of diamonds.

My strategy is built around game theory, and I know it works. We have some strong value hands and we can leverage those hands to also bet with a a certain frequency of bluffs that allow us to maximize the share of the money already in the middle that we capture.

There's really nothing our opponent can do about it. If they call more we make more with our value hands. If they fold more we make more with our bluffs. If they raise we profit with our value hands and simply fold our bluffs.

NO combos of ATo are good bluffs here. NONE.

AsTc doesn't magically become one because it makes V's range 3% narrower.

Nobody cares what stakes you play, but when you're playing $10NL, you probably shouldn't be condescending to people who have been making a living playing poker for many years. Instead of being abrasive and arrogant, demanding they "prove" something to you and calling them names, you would be better served by trying to understand how they are thinking.

Then what do you think are good bluffing candidates, and why is AsTc inferior to them?

Are you going to post a preflop range for villain or not?

Let's clear this up. Yes I said that. A minor misunderstanding by me. I was thinking QT (see a previous post about that). You are correct, QJ is in his range.

If you make me repeat something 800 times, the occasional flub is bound to happen. If you didn't have toxic woman-brain disease, you would have heard me the first 799 times I defined V's range that gets to the river as:
88-77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 87s, 65s, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ks6s, Ks5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 65o

That range contains full combos of QJ. We're on the same page here.

Weird how you get laser-focused on a typo but won't respond to information or questions repeatedly directed at you.

I've done enough math/illustrations for you in this thread. It's your turn to put in some effort.

Here are the combos I think he gets to the river with. All you need to do is work it backwards.
88-77, AJs, KJs, QJs, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 87s, 65s, KsQs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ks6s, Ks5s, 6s4s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 4s3s, AJo, KJo, QJo, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 65o

That's 158 combos. Some of those raise or donk before the river, so I'll concede that we should discount it somewhat. Let's say villain realistically brings 130 combos to the river. Is that fair?

Keep working it backwards now....how many combos folded on the turn when we bet $50. I contend this is a very very very small number. The turn card didn't change anything. All the same pairs and draws are present. Assuming V folds most of his air on the flop, what got dropped on the turn?? Maybe you got V to fold some 7x, some backdoor club hands... how many combos are we talking about? Want to say 20? 30?

So when action checked to us on the turn, villain had a range of somewhere between 150 and 180 combos.

Our plan is to bet $50 and jam river. We're risking 270 to win 137. that has to succeed 66% of the time. That means V has to fold between 100 and 120 combos by the river.

Name them.

We have NFD's, tons of 2nd nut flush draws, tons of 3rd nut flush draws, OESD's, OESFD's, T8, 98, 97, and I'm probably missing some other stuff.

All of those have much more equity (thus are superior) than ATo

No one in this thread "makes a living" playing poker. I guarantee you that. GWF claims she does, but she's an unemployed degenerate deluding herself. She's one down swing away from filling out an application at Wendy's.

Also, don't jump to conclusions about me.

Just because I've only been into online poker for a few months doesn't mean I'm some noob.

I've been a profitable rec live player since 2006.

I'm not a "she, " and I'm not going to resort to bragging about my success and lifestyle to make a small person feel smaller. Anyway congrats you're now the first person on my ignore list.

Oh? You weren't spouting off about the size of your tax bill in another recent thread?

Typical woman. Heavily biased selective memory.

So just so we're clear.....you've participated in this conversation right up until the point the math illustrated how wrong you are, now you're ignoring me.

That's your line?

Well played

I didn't brag. You asked. You brought this up. YOU. Not me. YOU