Not a good flop.
1/3 8 handed.
The LJ seems to be one of the better players in the game. He is TAG. He sees me a a tight TAG.
We both have 600.
LJ opens to 15, it’s folded to me in the SB and I raise AsAd to 65, the LJ thinks for a couple seconds and calls.
130 in pot
9dQcQh..I check, he bets 110. What should be my plan here? If I Call and he goes big on the turn do I get away from this? Was my flop check correct?
15 Replies
Bet/fold the flop
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Bet/fold
Nothing else needs to be said about this hand
So far so good.
AQo (4)
KQs (2)
QJs (2)
QTs (2)
99 (3)
QQ (1) - pretty punchy sizing for this!
===
KJs with backdoor (3)
KTs with backdoor (3)
JTs (4)
Can he ever have KK here? I presume he doesn't have JJ or worse, at least it would be a very strange play.
I'm not in love with bet folding OOP on this board, which allows the low equity draws to just fold out straight away but the board texture would allow for him to make a raise with a lot of hands at the same time if he wished. I reckon we can stick around for the next street.
I would tend to check-fold the turn on a blank as a lot of those draws may check back without picking up additional equity. That said, you rather announce your hand strength with a call
WTF did you check flop? Wouldn't be shocked if V decided you have AK almost always and bets any pair for equity denial.
He does have 99, AQs/KQs and probably QJs.
QTs/AQo are pretty out there though, would use a v. different label if he shows up with those. But, to be fair, given the giant flop size I'd heavily lean away from TAG and/or pretending he knows what he's doing even if we fold and don't see anything more.
FWIW GTOwiz as SB checks flop ~3.4% of the time, and it's some QQ/99 and a lot of 65s/54s.
Robot V doesn't even have JTs or QJs.
As for what to do now ... I think you can do anything, fold if you assume he's just got 99/Qx and is praying you have something; call/raise if you think he's blasting w/e because you checked.
Call to see wtf he does on the turn, folding if he bets again, seems like a not great option though. Because if the turn is a random 3x brick there's a decent chance he continues firing with JT and continues "value betting" 88 or whatever.
I actually think preflop is quite tricky. At these stacks, a 3bet is going to setup an SPR where he can trivially make us play for stacks postflop (especially thanks to being in position), so I'd really like to offer poor IO if that is going to be the case. I typically like to offer poor 8:1 IO, but that would mean a raise to about $90... which is a ridiculously sized raise that is unlikely to get action. A "typical" 3x raise would create an SPR of ~6 offering IO of 20:1, which seems horrible. Our raise size created an SPR of ~4 but offerred IO of 12:1; I mean, we've committed ourselves, but our we cool enough with these IOs we've offered? Especially if we're seen as a tight TAG; I mean, is he correctly putting us on an overpear / AK at worse here when we 3bet, or have we been 3betting a lotta of different hands? It's a dicey spot, especially against someone described as one of the better players in the game.
So, and literally no one else will agree with me here, but I would strongly consider a flat preflop in this spot. Deep stacks that we don't want to play for unless we get in a massive amount of chips preflop (which we kinda can't). No significant dead money. OOP to one of the better players in the game. Prolly don't absolutely hate it if the BB comes along. I'm just going to trap and play a high SPR pot but much smaller (and reasonably sized) pot OOP and win a few bets off this guy by playing super passive, underrepping, and likely just check/calling off his bets on a non-stoopid runout. But that's me, and admittedly I have a super nitty image I have to deal with.
As played, I'm also checking the flop. It's pretty drawless, we don't really fear any turn cards, we're fine inducing.
But ug to his bet size. If he's one of the better players in the game, he probably puts us on a big pear. So is he attempting to get us to fold it? Or just getting stacks in play with AQ? It's a very sucky spot, but you could argue that we committed ourselves preflop and now just have to grit our teeth and passively call it off and hope he's attempting to get us off our big pear / AK.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Bet the flop or check/call. For hands that beat us, he really should have only AQ or QQ, maybe 99 or KQ. Why bet so much, though? Your raise pre is fairly large vs. one player, even if you are OOP. He might not put you on AA just based on that.
I'm definitely seeing a turn.
Don't flat pre. GG, you can 3bet hands other than AA here too. That way they can't just put you on one hand. Flat is really bad with aces almost always and this is no exception.
Listen meemaw, this is how these forums are supposed to work: Someone posts a poker question, and then we all give our advice on what to do and why. Here, you've just said what the options are. Nothing more. Do you understand that these two lines are worlds apart and the idea that we could be indifferent to either one is absurd on its face??? Do you realize there is no universe where that would be possible and to suggest such a thing betrays a lack of poker reasoning that is completely out of line for an ambassador of a poker forum. Holy Brunson's Ghost you cannot be serious!!
That's 20 goddamn hands!!! Do you know how many bluffs/worse value he has to have for us to continue profitably against a near-pot size bet?? Is that something you even think about?? Once again you haven't offered any strat advice, you've just said something everyone already knew. No one needed your help for that. Are you just the Brick Tamland of this forum just shouting out whatever you see. Do you really love lamp?
Are you going to construct a range for this villain and use that information to determine an appropriate response? That is what we do here ya know. Wanna try naming some hands we can beat?
Your raise pre is fairly large vs. one player, even if you are OOP. He might not put you on AA just based on that..
Is the villain @docvail?? Or are you suggesting there is actually a another person in the known universe who would do something as silly as use single-digit dollar variations in bet sizes to exclude full combos of entire hands from someone's range? If so, how do you know this is the guy? How are you making that determination?
Maybe he thinks you're a calling station.
Oh look, he was right.
Other than an ace or a nine, are there any turn cards that would sway your decision to get stacks in one way or the other?
Not good when he almost pots it when the 3-bettor checks. However, the board blocks Qs and we should be ahead about 90% on this flop before the action.
I like the flop check, but think he usually checks back or bets smaller.
Preflop is not worth discussing. Flat calling AA almost closing the action is worse than always open limping.
Not a grunch:
PRE - seems fine. Sizing seens fine unless you have a reason to size up or down with your raise size.
FLOP - I'm fine checking from OOP on this board. No idea what to make of his stab size.
Hard to imagine this is what he does with a hand that wants us to call. My guess is he has 9x or TT/JJ or some other 1P and thinks he's doing something theoretically correct, for equity denial or whatever, because apparently our entire range is just AK. Who knew?
I'd just call. No point in raising. Why do the pushing when the donkey will do the pulling?
IMO, the more interesting question is what to do on the turn. I suspect if we check he checks back a lot. So I kinda want to donk, to set up a less than PSB jam for the river.
If we call, the pot will be $350, and we'll have $425 back. Hmmmm... might donk for $125 and make him decide if he can call or if he'd rather jam. The pot will be $600 going to the river and we'll only have $300 left.
I'll be beating him into the pot if he jams over our donk.
At what stack size does preflop become tricky with our image and OOP to one of the better players in the game?
On a short stack (say a $200 stack that I typically sit on), preflop isn't tricky at all. We can 3bet to a very reasonable callable size, offering horrendous IO, and meanwhile completely negate our opponents positional and skill advantage.
We've obviously all decided sitting 200bb deep doesn't create a tricky spot (admittedly, we offered fairly poor 12:1 IO odds here, although that's still 50% more than I would have preferred). 300bb? 500bb? Or it simply doesn't matter cuz hurp durp we haz AA and pokr is ez and all stack sizes / opponents / position / situations are equivalent in terms of trickiness of spot?
And yet here we are postflop, OOP to one of the better players in the game, playing for 200bbs. Hope we have a real good confident handle on this spot.
GcluelesstrickyspotnoobG
