Hee Haw, Let's Donk!

His range is straights, lower sets, and a whole litany of combo draws with 12+ outs. On balance I'd say any bet at this point is neutral EV. Though the bigger you bet, the more nutted his range gets.

I could see raising to $140 here. I'll give that line a B-. I just think it leaves us in a sucky situation with a bloated pot out of position when a spade, 6, or 7 turns. On the other hand, the time to get big value from draws is now, not later.

I prefer to call, keep his bluffs in, and go for a big check-raise on non-spade turns

I think this is easy 3bet.
Villain probably has 0 fold equity unless we jam.
V's range is draws, combo draws, st8s, sets, 2pairs, occasionally A9/overpairs + naked TJ/T7 type hand.
Against this type of range, a 3bet to 120-200, V is calling or jamming on top.
We can ship non spade turns.
I guess we can also jam but his 2pairs might start to fold, 55/88 might or might not fold. Combodraws are probably never folding as well. His random naked draws will fold. And 67 obviously snapping us off.

So either choose a sizing to like 120-200ish then jam non spade turn.
Or just jam right now.

Donk seems fine, as he often will not cbet this flop. There is one straight 76s, and you have outs against it. You have 2nd nuts. Definitely 3! the flop. It could get tricky on the turn whatever you do, as there are a lot of cards that make straights, flushes etc.

Grunch:

PRE - 3B to $40-$50.

FLOP - not sure why you'd donk in this configuration, or for this size. Just check in flow.

If you want to donk, go stupid small or stupid huge. 3/4 pot is too big to induce a raise from worse and too small for people to think you've lost your mind or are FOS. It just looks like super thick value hoping everyone folds.

As played, we're just guessing now. Is V bluffing? Is he nutted? Is he the ghost of T6 past? F**k if I know.

I suppose we can get cute and click it back. Don't ask me what to do if he re-clicks it.

Yeah, given 2 players to act and the other villain acting after the preflop raiser, maybe better to play for a checkraise on the flop.

If he raised with 76s, I fine with gii 36% against that. I don't see how you can be concerned about being behind with 2nd nuts.

His click it back doesn't really make sense with anything on the wet board. If he has 76 or 88, he should raise larger for value and protections.

I'm not generally a huge fan of calling in the BB when there's one caller in between, but 99 would be the sort of hand I'd use when I do do it.

Like the flop donk, you could almost donk range here - maybe an exaggeration but it's the ideal spot.

Not sure what the T6o hand tells us other than your opponent isn't a world beater. Probably means we can't rule out 76o but that means there are a whole load more hands as well and he's a gambler.

I'm probably 3betting now. You could (should?) do this with all your nut flush draws as well as other sets. If he's a wild player, reward him with some wild action. Just feels like you can easily get into some messy situations on the turn if you just call - action killing cards, draws checking back and so on.

The description of Hero in the first paragraph made me smile btw

Looking at this again...

My general read on MAAG's is that they tend to have it whenever they take aggressive actions post flop. I wouldn't put much stock in the pre-flop squeeze with T6o. When they show the bluff, it's usually because they're very rarely bluffing and want to get loose calls.

If we got the suits of the board cards, I'm not seeing them on my phone. Whether or not there's a FDFD here changes how I view his min-click. If there's a FDFD possible, I'd be more likely to think his raise is FOS.

If there's no FD, then I tend to think he's either raising for value with the nuts or he's got a hand that would like us to check to him on the turn so he can check back and get to showdown. Something like 1P + a draw, 87s, 65s, something in that vein.

We just completed from the BB pre, so we could easily have 76 here. I don't like that he's clicking this. 3B'ing feels like we'd be turning top set into a bluff, trying to rep a straight.

@Yami - if you were giving him a bunch of 1P + draw combos, and thought he'd check back a lot of those, then good on you for finding this creative donk line, and I don't hate it.

But, if that's your read, I don't know if we're supposed to stay logically consistent and 3B. And if we don't 3B, then I wonder if we're supposed to donk again on any turn card that doesn't complete any of his potential draws. Like I said, we're guessing now.

The other thing I notice about MAAG's is they tend to get really sticky once they put money in post flop. If we 3B to $120, I don't expect him to find enough folds with his pair + draw combos, and those would all be intuitive bluffs. If he jams over top, I'd be sick.

The alternative here is to flat the raise, and I guess check turn. No idea what we should do if he bets chunky. I'm not sure what we're repping here with that line. Maybe a similar range of 2P+ for value and a bunch of pair + draws.

I guess I'm saying your V probably under-bluffs in general, but you've taken a line that may have induced him to start a bluff. But you're doing it with the 2nd nuts in a spot where he could just have the nuts, or a 3rd best hand, and I don't know how we're supposed to know which situation we're in.

I like your play pre-flop, as I rarely raise from the BB. I like to defend from that position as initiative means less when you act first.

Donking the flop makes since as
1. It’s often perceived as weak top pair
2. You can’t let it check thru

Now I think you play the double up game:
H bet $20 - V bet $40 - now you bet $80
This doesn’t give away how strong you are, but villain’s not going anywhere & you’re building a pot. I like the initiative now!

If he re-raises again, then jam it in.
If he calls, you evaluate the turn

People spend more concern on all the bad cards that could run out, but there’s some good cards that could come even if he has 67

Likely a wide range from the button and this flop favors his range. However, when we miss the flop 68% of the time, it’s less likely that both of us hit.

Not sure about the donk now, because you really want to get the x/r in on the wet board.

Doubling it again to 80 would be just horrible. You want to build the pot for value and protection. Yeah, it might look weaker, but if he made that stupid miniraise on this board he isn't smart enough to figure that out.

I might go for check/raise on this flop, but vs an unknown PFR on such a draw-heavy flop, I'm fine with the donk, too. Would hate for it to check through.

I go ahead and raise the min-click. The min-click feels like a "see where I am at" play on this flop. Just raise to $120. So many turn cards can kill the action. If he shoves, we have a decision to make, but I can't see folding vs this guy.

Honestly I feel like this is going to be one of those threads where everyone says one thing but I say another, and everyone accuses me of overthinking it, and the reveal either proves I was right all along and everryone silently seethes or it proves I was over-thinking it and everyone gets to say I told you so.

So....

Bruh, am I the only one who sees the possible (and obvious) straight? You're repping the nuts but you only have the 2nd nuts. The bigger you go here, the more often you just run into the nuts and fold out all their worse hands we're trying to target for value.

Even if we think our opponents are dumber than a bag of hammers, the bigger you go, the lower the bar gets for minimum intelligence required to know what hands can call.

You just donked over 2/3 pot multi-way, first to act. I don't give a hot monkey crap what anyone thinks. You're not repping weak 1P combos. You're making it crystal clear you love your hand.

GreatWhiteFish can drive to my house on a Sunday morning, drag me out of bed, and beat me to death with a sack of still-wrapped copags, I'm still thinking about folding over-pairs if you come out and pot it.

I'm only clicking it back with straights, draws to the nuts, and maybe some sets. If you 3B flop, I'm just folding all my 1P combos. If you think Asia McChinaface (Jesus, I hope that isn't racist) is a nit, what do you think he's raising with?

I'll be happy to read you had the best hand and got max value. I'll readily admit I'm an over-thinker if we stack an over-pair. I'll buy Submersible a 1 day supply of his favorite Frito-Lay product if he or anyone else can post a reasonable-assumption sim showing this is the optimal line here.

PS - I'm pissed off at my boss and I've been drinking. Nothing above should be construed as a binding agreement to purchase salty snacks or consent to be the victim of a home-invasion/murder. Apologies to anyone named Asia or McChinaface. I'm sure you're a lovely person.

God, I need a vacation.

He may not even be opening 76s and that is one hand you are 36% against. You are over 90% against 88 or 55.

Results:

200 is horrible. It is obvious you are committed and he doesn't have odds to draw. I would go to 120 and if he folds he folds. Can't go tiny on the dripping wet board. Probably weren't getting it all in anyway against whatever he had.

I didn't like 80, but 200 is kind of ridiculous. You are thinking about what you want to do and not about what he can reasonably call. You might not have been getting much anyway. The click it back on the wet board may have been FOS.

Once again, I was right and everyone else here was wrong.

I've actually never seen you be right, not even here. Yamihere bet too much. C'est la vie.

I suppose there's a world where you both have sets and he thinks you're trying to rep a straight but doesn't believe you'd ever play a straight this way, and therefore he must have the best hand, and just gets it in.

I'd never get to that point the way you did, or V did, so I have no idea what size your 3B should be.

I did imagine the two of you min-clicking it back and forth repeatedly like a game of ping-pong, until one of you gets tired of doing that, and just jams. I had the over-under at 2 min-clicks each.

Referring back to your read, if there was something in there that would make us think he's calling a $200 3B with 1P, I missed it. It sounds like he's capable of occasionally bluffing pre when the pot is small and no one shows much strength. I didn't get the sense that he's the eponymous Ramblin' Gamblin' Man from that Bob Seger song.

Didn't see NH/GG's comment on my post until I looked at this on the laptop. I want to go on record saying the new forum software is poo.

I don't think this forum is super-friendly to "street poker" or whatever the kids are calling it these days, but if we're going to peek down that rabbit hole...

Any time we break game flow or do something weird and nonsensical, we're opening up Pandora's box for opponents to start rooting around inside and pulling out random responses.

If we're playing stupid games, I prefer to do it with stupid hands. 99 isn't a stupid hand here.

If we think we can induce (I can't call him what I called him again) this Asian gentleman to get out of line with 1P + a draw by donking into him, and he clicks it, I think the jig is up, and we should either 3B kind of small, or just flat call and donk any turn that isn't bad for us.

I don't think donk-flop / call a min-click / donk turn is a "real" line. I've never heard of it or seen it. I did once have a fish donk flop, call a chunky raise, and donk turn, but then he folded when I raised again.

I was bluffing, apparently (I showed 5 high, and he said he had me beat, shocker). I think my line looked nutted. I think donk-3B looks nutted. I don't know what donk-call-donk looks like. Maybe not nutted. Maybe just nuts.

I don't know. I think it's hard for V to call a reasonably-sized flop 3B with worse than a set, and set-over-set doesn't happen all that often. I think a 3B just gets jammed on by straights and folds out all his 1P + a draw. If I was ever going to fold a set on the flop, it would be after I got 3B.

When he minclicks, I don't think he has a pair. Maybe not even overpairs. I think he has 2p+ or a super strong draw like QTss, Axss. If he has A9 or A8, I'm not getting more money no matter what happens, because I don't think he is the type of player to just bluff off if I call a raise.

So I want to get max value from the sets (I think it's pretty disastrous if I flat and the FD comes in then we both small ball our sets to the river). Though to do that I can probably 3! pretty small because he is going to jam often. I could make it say $100 and I'd expect a set to raise again and we're just getting it in. Or I can just bet big and a set is going nowhere - I don't think I can ever bluff a set OTF. So for a set, I want to raise but the size doesn't matter.

I think V has some overpairs. I think QQ+ probably 3!s pre, but he could easily have JJ/TT. Knowing what happened, if you made me bet on a hand right now, I'd put my money on TT because it is the type of hand that might make a weak minclick, that is going to tank and consider calling, but ultimately probably folds to a big bet. I think at $200, most reasonable players are going to find the fold. At $140, I think its a lot harder with only $100 more into $107 and H can absolutely have a ton of draws.

V has some 2P - though I don't think a lot. Only 98 and there aren't many 9's left. But I think 98 is going to have a hard time folding even to a large bet since H can have so many draws and there are outs vs the straight. Maybe $200 can push off 98 in the hands of a nit, but I think for $140, 2p is never folding (though probably not raising like 88).

V has strong combo draws or draws to the nuts: Axss, QTss, JTss - the combo draws are never folding so I can bet big against those. Axss - maybe some of those fold to a larger size. Some $1/$2 players are simply never folding a NFD on the flop, I think this guy might. But I doubt he's folding for another hundred.

V has weaker FDs, maybe 43ss. I'm fine with those folding. I don't think I can get enough money from those and just lose a chunk when they suck out.

So I believe that with $100 on top to $140, I'm going to be raised by sets, called/raised by strong combo draws, called by NFDs and other combo draws, 98, and maybe JJ/TT might float one street. There really isn't anything else I'm getting decent value from anyway, and some reverse implied odds if he has a SD that hits the turn because I'm paying off a chunky turn or river bet. By going to $200 I think I concentrate him to sets, strong combo draws, maybe a sticky NFD and obviously the straight.

So...when you donk for a chunky size multi-way, and he min-clicks, I think his range falls into three buckets:

1. Nutted value (at least 4 straight combos, maybe more) that wants to take the betting lead rather than scare you away with a turn raise or let you dictate how big the pot is going to be on later streets.

2. Thick value (sets/2P, 7 combos) that isn't sure you're not semi-bluffing, but doesn't want to let you keep the betting lead and thereby take them to value town by sizing up on later streets.

3. Semi-bluffs (too many combos to count) that know they're behind but don't want you to barrel turn for a big size, and want to take the betting lead so you'll check turn and they can either bet when they improve or check back and take a free card when you don't.

I don't think we need to donk here. If the PFR checks from MP, there's a good chance V is going to start stabbing on the BTN with all his flush draws, all his 1P + a draw, 2P, sets, and straights. There's a good chance his bet sizing will telegraph his hand strength, when the board is so wet and dynamic. He's probably not folding any of those hands to our donk.

If he's betting all those hands, there's no disaster to worry about, because the flop isn't checking through. If we check-call and the flush comes in, there's a new class of hands we're now behind, and we should just be check-calling small bets, because now we're just bluff-catching, and hoping to boat up when he flopped a straight or turned a flush.

As you noted, there's only one combo of 98s, and I'll point out he's only got 6 combos of lower sets that we can target for value on flushing turns. His range is going to have at least four flopped straights, a bunch of flush draws, and a lot of 1P + a draw combos.

If we check and he stabs flop for a small size, we can x/r the $hlt out of him, for a big size, and get more value from all the weaker and inelastic hands in his range. If he stabs huge, we can flat call, knowing he's got 7 value combos we beat and 4 combos we lose to, and all of those are likely to keep betting on brick turns, or slow down and check back flushing turns. We could get an opportunity to steal the pot on the river if he checks back turn.

Your line won $60 here. I think check-call / check-raise flop wins more. If V has a straight, you're torching $200 with this line.

If MP limped pre, BTN raised, we flatted, and MP over-called, I could get behind the flop donk, because we can get a call from MP, and BTN is likely to check back more with his draws in a multi-way pot. But when MP is the PFR, he might bet and get called by the BTN, or MP might check and the BTN may stab, so we get more value by checking than by donking.

This V was playing quite passively post flop. I don't believe for a second that he is betting this board with anything other than a set+. If I had AA and he bet, I'm instamucking and not even thinking twice about it. I don't think he's betting KK, I don't think he's betting FDs, he isn't betting SDs, maybe he's betting combo draws, but I wouldn't even be surprised if those checked back. That's why I donked, because he's definitely calling with all sorts of hands that he probably checks. I would expect it to check through with near 100% frequency.

I agree, against a player who is going to stab frequently with reasonable hands and draws and maybe the occasional bluff, then checking is the right move. If I were in Texas, it's just a natural x/r. But this was a game where it felt like an achievement to get someone to put in $5 post flop. I don't know if it was the promo (they were doing hourly drawings for $500-$1k), but they weren't there to play poker.

So when he minclicked, I put him on a fairly strong hand. But that includes some reasonably strong draws where he thought that by minclicking, I call and check turn a lot, giving him two cards, and he can avoid having to make a big decision OTT.

Okay, so...you know your man better than we do. If that's your read of him and his likely range, all good, as far as it goes.

Obviously, our read can be wrong, so I think it's worth considering that in-game. I'm not trying to argue that your read is wrong here. More saying, "did we pause to consider it, and ask 'what if'?" I have to wonder if there are lines which capture most of the upside +EV without as much downside -EV, in the event our read isn't entirely correct.

Let's agree to assume so much of V's range does check back. I'm good with that assumption, if for no other reason than by sheer numbers of the combinations of hands that are possible, his range is likely to be heavily weighted towards draws / 1P + a draw, followed by lower sets, and only then by a low number of straights.

Where I start to differ is when we start to think his min-click indicates a "strong" hand, and what our response should be.

First, his entire range could want to min-click this, for different reasons, which I already laid out (and which you seem to agree with). The min-click itself doesn't really narrow his range at all. I still think he has 4 straights, 7 sets/2P, and a $hlt-ton of semi-bluffs.

The question we should ask is how we get max value from all his semi-bluffs and worse value, but not get stacked by his straights? And I do think this is where asking "what happens if" is important.

What happens if we check? It might check through a lot, and there aren't many turn bricks on this board texture. Our opponents may improve to a better hand, or their hand may get downgraded, and it'll be harder for us to extract value.

Or, someone may bet, and we'll be able to check-raise, reducing the SPR, and laying them better odds to continue on the turn with a worse hand, even if the turn is scary. Or, someone may bet, and someone else may raise, and we might be able to minimize our losses against a straight. Or, it may go bet-fold-call-(turn)-check-check, and we might find a path to victory, either by improving, turning our hand into a bluff, or simply sniffing out that we're actually best.

What happens if we donk small, like $10? There's a non-zero percent chance one of our opponents may think we're FOS and raise. We could then 3B. Maybe they'll still think we're FOS, but probably not. We'd mostly be announcing we have a very strong hand, and it'll be hard for us to get another street of value from a worse hand.

What happens if we donk huge, like $50? There's a non-zero percent chance someone with a set thinks we're FOS and raises. Most of the 1P hands probably just fold. Some of the sets/2P might fold. Someone with a straight probably just LOL-calls. In that case, we can probably just check-fold turn, knowing our set is crushed by a straight.

What happens if we donk something in-between, like $20 into $27? Apparently there's a more than zero percent chance we get min-clicked, which tells us nothing, other than confirming the range we already suspected they'd have, but does put the pressure back on us to figure out what our response will be, despite gaining no additional information. I'm not even sure we can reliably rule out that our V has a total air-ball.

You see where this is going - none of our options are without their downsides. Nothing we do here will change the fact that our opponents' ranges include 4 straights, 7 sets/2P, and a $hlt-ton of draws. I strongly believe that a flop x/r range has enough bluffs in it that we could get another street of value from worse, whereas a donk-3B (huge 3B) line probably has far fewer bluffs, and makes it very difficult for us to get another penny from worse.

I think you took it to the streets by donking 2/3 pot. V apparently didn't mind playing in the streets, until you tried to curb-stomp him with that ridonkulous $200 3B.

If you 3B smaller, maybe V thinks you might have some bluffs. Even if he doesn't, he might still call, just to see if he can suck out on the turn. We're probably not getting another street of value out of his worse hands, but we might have gotten a little more out of him on the flop, thanks to your out-of-the-box line.

I guess what I'm saying is - maintain a consistent logical thread that starts with knowing what our opponent's action actually means. We already knew what his continue range should be. His min-click tells us more about what he thinks of our donk bet / range than it tells us about his range. He apparently thought our donk was FOS.

Let's not disillusion him by 3B'ing huge. Let's encourage him to keep wondering by 3B'ing small. A 3x re-raise is small enough for him to think we might be trying to buy our way out of the mess we made. A 5x re-raise is big enough for him to decide he's going to let us.

Hope that's helpful.