TPGK good for 3 streets?

I like going for thin value here on a blank river but I would check back on the flush completing card. Villain will have some flushes in range and will be less likely to pay off with a hand like KJ.

There it is again! The LLSNL 2+2 signature leak.

Just because something is true, doesn't mean it matters.

Yes villain can have flushes now....why is that a reason to shut down completely? You just said you'd go for thin value on a blank. But because flushes are possible...you don't? Why not? How are you determining that a bet is not profitable as opposed to merely less profitable?

I count 7 combos of KJ, and 7 combos of K9 that we beat. I count maybe 12-15 flushes and 6 combos of KT that beat us. We're indifferent to any other hand that he folds. So, of the range that doesn't fold river, we beat about 1/3 of it. So if we bet half-pot, we can expect to break even when called.

If we bet less than half pot, we'll turn a profit.

Bet $100.

Just bet 90 again. Flush often leads river here.

H elects to x back, but in hindsight H should have bet river - like someone said in a prior post, no way V is x/calling with the flush draw to just x it on the river. H shows his KQ and wins, V flips over a K and mucks.

Honestly surprised V didn't donk shove what would be only a ~60% pot bet on the river. (175 into 280-ish) Better chance of winning that way than call/call/calling with TP/poor kicker, when the board pairs and the obv draw came in. Which an IP H likely doesn't have.

Along with that, which river bet size is H going to make besides a shove? Are they calling a shove with anything H beats? Or is this a spot for b10/20 shenanigans?

I'm disappointed that none of the whales in this forum called me out for giving terrible advice in my earlier post. I didn't mean to give bad strat, but for some reason I sorta space'd the face that we're on the river in position, and that affects the math differently.

My profit/noprofit mathematics are flawed because we can win the money in the pot by checking. Therefore we need V to call any river bet with more worse hands than better hands. Based on my combo count we're probably 50/50 or close, therefore either play is probably ok, though I think checking is best.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. $15 ain't doing jack $hlt here. Make it $20, at least.

FLOP - Bad math. The pot should be at least $60 if you had 3 callers. Also, you said there were 3 callers pre, but "both vs call" flop. How many people are in this hand?

Ordinarily, I'd like the 1/3 pot c-bet (or 40%, or whatever the hell it was, not really knowing how many people called pre). With this cast of 2 (or 3?) characters, I might size up and bet 1/2 pot, or even 2/3 pot, to target their umpteen million Kx combos and draws.

TURN - ehhh...I don't hate bombing it, but my cooler-sense is tingling, making me think you're going to tell us he called flop with 65 and just drilled the turn.

My usual approach to turn bet sizing is to bomb it on a brick when they're capped, and size way down on a card that may have credibly improved someone's hand. I'm not 100% certain V is capped getting to the turn, because I'm not sure what he does with hands like KT, K6, K5, T6, T5, and 65 on the flop.

Normal people shouldn't show up on the turn with all those hands in their range, but this guy's not normal. He's a tilt-prone Brazilian. If you think he's fit-or-fold, what's he fitting here that's worse than our hand but will still call when we bomb the turn?

My gut feeling is that he's got a super-wide range pre. He could have a lot of hands on this board, and I'd like to give him another chance to tell us what he has by betting small.

RIVER - I think if you bet here, the best you can hope for is to get called by worse KX, but mostly you'll be getting called by better, if not having him stuff it in your face.

If you bet turn small, he'd be more likely to donk with all the hands that beat ours. When you barrel ginormous, they think you're going to blast river, so they check more to trap.

If you checked this back, my hunch is he gets angry that you didn't bet. If you bet, my hunch is he snap-called or snap-jammed.

I think at 1/2, the V shows up with a ludicrously played AK more than K6,K5, doubt hes x/calling any streets with a vulnerable 2 pair and "a flush draw out there"
Villains range is almost exclusively flushes, same hands, worse Kings, Tx
You could maybe use the V is playing scared info to make an exploitative check back, scared money at 1/2 will check river frequently out of fear of a FH raising them, but in a vacuum at 1/2 I think this is a thin value bet to get called by trash pairs all day.

You should go bigger pre if there is 'a couple of limpers'. Sounds like you could have made it $20 at least.

Can also size up on flop as there are two draws present. Seems it should be $60 to the flop, so I wouldn't mind $35-$40 (now if I can just implement this myself next week when I go to Vegas).

As played I would be tempted to bet very small (10-20%) on the river. There has to be some frequency of opponent donking out when he hits his flush, so the fact that he doesn't already reduces flush combos a fair bit.

The pot should be around $300 now, so anything between $25-$50 seems fine for me. This ensures you get value from hands like KJ and K9s, and this opponent is likely never good enough to find any bluff-jam over small sizing.

You mention it being a 1/2 game, as if there's something about 1/2 that impacts V's range, but you didn't explain what it is.

It's 1/2, the smallest game spread in most card rooms. V over-limped behind a "few" limps, which I'd take to mean at least three. He could get here with K6s or K5s, and it's not shocking if a 1/2 rec-fish decides any offsuit Kx combo is good enough to over-limp from MP, getting 4:1 or better.

If he's not going to x/call, is he going to x/raise? If he's x/r'ing because his 2P is vulnerable, I'd think he'd x/r with KT, AK, and KJ, for the same reason - they're vulnerable hands and it's a two-tone board.

That's kind of my point - it's 1/2, and he's a tilt-prone rec-fish who plays fit-or-fold post. If he shows up with AK, he probably also shows up with KQ, KJ, KT, K-whatever, and maybe 66, 55, 65, T6, and T5. If he's showing up with worse Kx on the river, maybe he's NOT x/r'ing 2P+ on the flop.

He over-limped behind 3 other limpers. That's loose-passive. He has a range wider than my mother-in-law's behind. He plays fit-or-fold post. What does he have that calls our flop c-bet, and a chunky turn barrel, and also calls a river bet, after the flush comes in and the board pairs? The best we can hope for here is to get a sigh-call out of KJ or maybe K9.

If we think we can also target K2, K3, K4, K7, and K8, then logically, he also has K6 and k5.

Like, we don't know how wide he is pre, or how many worse KX combos he has in his range getting to the river. We don't know how many boats or flushes he has here. He doesn't need a flush or a boat to beat KQ. He just needs K6 or KT. Occasionally he just has AK with the Ad.