AKo in the BB: whiffed the flop, now what?

Don't 3-bet.

The reason to put in a big raise against a loose-passive is to get them to call with all the junk airballs they flat with pre-flop. In this hand, she open raised. You said yourself, that's a 5% hand. You can't beat a 5% hand without improving. So don't start shoveling money into the pot until you can be fairly certain you're good.

As played, check/fold. Can't salvage this wreck now. You put in 25% of your stack already. Any more and you're committed.

I like the squeeze when there is this much dead money. Now I would check and hope she checks back, planning on folding to any reasonable sized bet.

That. She's not folding even if you do bet, right? So let's see how much she likes her hand. If she bets, she probably has a pair, maybe a draw. Call a small bet, see if you hit your over; fold to a bigger one. You know the drill.

Ask her about her grandkids...

Grunch:

Wassamattawitu, trying to take an old lady's pension money? She's on a fixed income!

PRE - I'd probably just call. She didn't drive all the way to the casino with plans on blowing her grandkids' inheritance just to fold after she finally picks up a hand that fits into her 5% raising range.

FLOP - Uhm...if you bet anything less than all-in, I'm guessing she calls. If you jam all-in, I won't be shocked if she still calls. If you told her you flopped a straight with 65 and swore on your kids' eyes you were telling the truth, I don't think she's folding.

She raised. You 3B. She called. On what planet is she folding now?

I think our options here are c/f, or jam and pray she sigh-folds or we suck out on her when she inevitably shrug-calls.

When I told you to leverage your nitty image by getting a little OOL pre, I didn't mean against her, or with AK in the BB. I was talking about raising AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ type stuff, against the wing-nuts who splash around and are going to run for the hills if you raise.

This lady ain't running anywhere. Certainly not up hills. I bet she's got one of those scooter-chairs, and going down a steep slope she might get it up to 18 mph.

WHEEEEEEEEE!!!!

3b seems bad OOP vs a range of QQ-AA.

So I think this is marginally more interesting than I first thought.

Let's assume the 5% RFI is accurate, so perhaps TT-AA, all combos of AQ and AK. Let's also assume she 4bets AA, KK, and calls with the rest of her range.

So her range now is TT-QQ, AQo+. Well at flop there are more combos of AQ, AK than pairs, so if we think we can get her to fold with half size pot that should be good - any sense on wether she will call with 2 overs or if she likely folds. If its the latter, this could be profitable.

Also if we check, will she bet two overs or just the overpairs? If we don't think she bets the two overs, then a turn jam could be good.

Ok Hitchypoo. You decided to cross me today; this is what you get.

Yes, let's do that. Oh wait, you didn't do that. The rest of your post fails to account for a 5% RFI range. You abandoned your own assumption within one sentence.

Perhaps? Why are we guessing? There are 1326 hands in Hold 'em. We can use math and determine how many hands make up a 5% range. This range here seems reasonable and is 76 hands (5.7%)
99+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+

Personally, I'd put 88 in there instead of AQo. But AQ is kinda central to your argument, so I'll leave it in.

Hmm, no. Let's not assume that. It's 1/2, you'd have to play for months before you'd need more than one hand to count the number of 4-bets you see. Also, we're only 100BB's deep, so the only 4-bet that makes sense is All-in. If she has AA/KK, she'll be worried about scaring us off with a jam, and will likely choose to play an overpair heads-up in position.

I'm ignoring your range for her at this point. You began with a flawed range, so I'm not going to let that error flow through. We're going to use an ACTUAL 5% range which I defined earlier. With card removal, it is now 54 hands.

Did you count them before you decided to post this? Do you think that would have been a good idea?

Once again we have someone just saying poker-ish stuff and hoping it sounds good. But any kind of fact-based challenge will absolutely shatter this.

Half pot bet requires a 33% success rate to break-even. Read that again please "to break even". I'm not interested in playing break even poker, so I'm targeting something well above 33% for this bluff to generate robust +EV. The range we have for her at this point contains 54 hands. She can't call with more than 36 of them.

Of the 54 hands I listed, there are: 3 sets, 24 overpairs, 3 NFD's, and 1 K-high FD. That's 31 hands that are never folding. 4 more hands are overcards with backdoor flush draws.

So you're just hoping the answer will be spoonfed to you? Why not just figure it out? Her range has 19 hands left, if she calls with even one of them, then we're at the break-even threshold.

You lost me dude. First of all, you're begging for reads to give you the answer. You're saying "Well, if you tell me exactly how she plays each specific hand, then I can tell you what to do". What kind of help is that?

But ok, let's pretend we have the read you're craving. Let's say we know she's betting her pairs and checking back her overcards. And let's say the flop checks through. Now let's say the turn is a blank (not a Q, J, or heart that you gave up for free). You have your opponent read as having Ace-high at best, and ready to fold to any bet. But instead of making just any bet, you jam??

You were counting on her folding unpaired hands to a half-pot bet on the flop. Why would that bet size not work now? In a situation where $50 is enough to get folds, you decide to bet $180 and ensure you lose the maximum if your read happens to be wrong.

Brilliant

I can get on board with calling pre. In position or with more callers in between I like the 3b more.

As played: bet small or check. This board hits neither of you but V often has a medium pocket pair she's not folding. So you can set your price and see if that works.

I mean....there's a world where we jam and she folds something better or a chop.

I don't know if that's the world we're in. It may not be. This may be the world where we jam and she shrug-calls with all her 1P, and only folds a chop.

I wouldn't hate on you for jamming. I wouldn't hate on you for checking again. Maybe she checks back again.

I would jam the flop against most villains. You might get TT to fold and you have some pot odds and equity versus a pair. I got someone to fold QQ face up jamming AK on the flop for a little over pot with a similar situation and flop. They will fold a lot, because most people's 3! range at 1/3 is so much big pairs.

With reads, probably flat preflop and just keep checking as played.

This is really becoming apparent in my games. When someone raises big pre-flop, it’s almost always AK. Players know they are supposed to raise, but are lost pre-flop. If you do this in my game and I have a little of anything, I’m probably going to take this away from you.

IDK why but AA, KK, QQ never raise huge pre-flop, unless it’s face up rec.

The difficulty comes when v raises 50 (I know he has AK) but two call before it gets to me with QQ and I don’t know what they have?

OTTH
I rarely raise from the BB with anything other than aces and kings. The positional disadvantage negates bloating pots.

Checking the flop and I don’t mind folding AK against pressure here, so it depends on loose passive. If you have it defined like I do, calls a lot but doesn’t bet ——— than any aggressive action likely folds me.

I will c-bet aggressively in similar spots with AK, but not after v called a 3bet pre

Played against a guy yesterday kept getting it early. What if you went all-in on the flop, do you think villain folds? This is what he did, betting 500 to win 100 - then he put his head down while his opponent(s) kept saying it makes no sense, but nobody called him.
Did it 3x

Guess she either isn't a big fan of her hand, or she's trapping. I don't see her trapping though tbh, on a 2-tone flop, and likely w/o the Ah/Kh in her hand.

175 back right? 125 in the pot. Depending on whether you think she does this with things like AQo/KQs, I have H as either ~flipping now or like a 60/40 dog. (I've her with QQ-TT, AJs+, KQs, AQo+. 4! with KK+ pf. Reasonable? If she's that passive to overcall, ldo H is doing much worse.

Probably jamming now. Betting small on turn means she'll call, H will whiff river most likely, and whoof! went our FE. OTOH, if it goes x-x on turn, could bluff jam hearts.

Most people in this thread agree that villain's range is stuffed with overpairs that are likely not folding, and unpaired overcards that we either beat or chop with.

The recommendation from those same people is to "jam" (either on flop or turn)

Therefore we lose the maximum against the hands that beat us, and get the most folds from the hands we beat.

What the hell is going on here???

What is this??

Who are you people??

Pre is good. Flop is a check, so well done. Bet the turn -- whatever the smallest "big" bet is to make her fold a pair -- if it's all in with stack size, that's fine.

Hand continues to the final inflection point:

Limp. V in HJ opens 12. Loose passive in CO calls. Hero with AsKd in BB to 60. V calls. Heads-up.

Flop (125): 9c4h7h

Hero? Hero actually checks. V checks back.

Turn: 9d

Hero? Hero checks. V bets 50. Hero?

I think this is a better flat than a 3bet against a 5% range that won't fold anything. Dead money may change that equation, and don't hate the squeeze but think flat might be best.

AP this is a dogshit flop and I'm probably just giving up to any aggression. We are ahead of some of her hands which I guess sucks if we're folding to a turn bluff but we play AK vs. this person to stack them when they hold AJ/AQ/KQ and we get to teach them the kicker lesson.

I don't think much has changed. Whatever she has, she may or may not fold to a jam. I don't think there's enough info available to reason our way to thinking that action A is always going to be higher EV than action B or C.

You can fold, call, or raise. Seems like we may have stepped in it by 3B'ing her pre, but we got to see the flop and turn, so I'd consider that a better outcome than having to fold to a 4B pre or fold to a c-bet on the flop.

Maybe she gets here with AK or worse. But the only way to find out is to put more money in the pot. Alternatively, we can just fold, and hope she shows QQ or whatever, so we know we made the correct decision.

Ugh. Just fold now. She could have anything, but we've been so passive we will never know.

Just in case my point wasn't clear...

I've seen players that fit this V type show their hands even when opponents fold. Not sure why, when nobody thinks they might be bluffing, but apparently this V type feels the need to reassure us that they're rarely bluffing.

Results

Hero folds. V throws cards into the muck.

Seems like a good fold. She was trying to trap you by checking back flop, and trying to milk you for value on the turn.