Ongoing VP TR, PART 2!
Hi all, apparently my previous thread may have gotten so long that it's causing issues for the website. So, here is a ne
same. After 20+ years of poker and 20+ years running a small headhunting firm, I am a giant believer in momentum both positive and negative. There is generally a 3ish month period every 18 months or so with either/both of my pastimes where I simply can't win a pot/catch a break. Like when 4 or 5 bad news things have happened in the past month, it feels like when there's a ph
A streak may be real but its a gamblers fallacy to think you can take advantage of it.
Casinos don't win because of streaks. They win because of the mathematical edge built into the games they offer.
They also have "variance" but the math is the math.
The only way to exploit casinos is through AP techniques where you have a mathematical edge.
A streak may be real but its a gamblers fallacy to think you can take advantage of it.
Casinos don't win because of streaks. They win because of the mathematical edge built into the games they offer.
They also have "variance" but the math is the math.
The only way to exploit casinos is through AP techniques where you have a mathematical edge.
Thanks, Scoop!
You need to read the book Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
You would soon realize what a fallacy it is to believe in lucky/unlucky streaks and the ability to take advantage of them.
I've read the book and we understand everything you're saying. No one is saying we can "take advantage of the streaks". Those comments were firmly tongue in cheek.
That said, if you think gambling is pure math and negative variance isn't due to some malicious entity... you haven't gambled enough. That comment may or may not be tongue in cheek.
I haven't read any books on streaks. This is the totality of my research on streaks ...
i would just adopt what i did whenever i was in an online freeroll
just play shove/fold pre and be prepared to shove pretty light expecting light calls
you can build a pretty big stack and prepare yourself for a deep run, in which case adding on 5k is reasonable
or you can bust out early, leave, and save yourself the anguish of throwing 15k+ on a what's essentially a hyper turbo that is going to be a variance fest
**** add-ons. Just win the tournament before level 4 ends.
Thanks for everyone's input. To be clear, I refuse to spend a dime other than the 5k addon which I have to survive until end level 4 for. I'm not sure it's worth it to play hands with a starting stack of 10k when at best I can double or triple that by the end of the first hr. The suckout potential is too high and I take myself out of the running to play the "real" tourney. I'll take my chances with a 25BB stack for 5k against that field and that prize pool.
I probably won't even have any decisions to make in the first 4 levels, honestly. With levels only 15 min and those players, I suspect we won't even get in an orbit per level. My plan is to slow things down a bit where I can. I'll likely see 30 hands at best at that rate.
Only thing that is still up for debate in my mind is what happens if I do pick up AA in the first 4 levels. Heads up, 80% chance of doubling up to 20k vs 20% chance of busting and missing the add on. That's 4/5 x 70k = 64k chips with an addon vs 67k chips if I post every blind and fold in each of the 4 levels. The theoretical chip gain isn't there. That's just heads up obv, if I can play for stacks multiway then the gain goes up but chance of winning goes down. I'm too lazy to do the math but I suspect it's close.
The other way I'm looking at this is from a tilt perspective. I'll be more tilted if I miss the add on portion than not. I'll definitely wonder what I might have put together. Obv I'll be more tilted paying 5k then busting vs playing early and busting, but those are mutually exclusive events. I can control the first "tilt opportunity", but not the second.
i hear you, but i don't think you're properly accounting for what this format is likely going to be
lots of people calling shoves with hands like A6o and K9s
especially with the charity factor and rebuys, i think we're going to get a lot of super wide play
i can't imagine anyone who makes it to the addon not opting to addon
yes you can guarantee folding your way to the addon
but you'll still be the smallest stack in a very top heavy tourney and you only have some manueverability post flop for a single level, 15 minutes after the addon, you're back to a fold/shove situation anyway - so the perspective of "survive until i have a stack to play post addon" doesn't really hold much merit, you're going to be doing a lot of flips regardless
and it's a top heavy payout - if you got 10th you'd be incredibly tilted
Thanks for everyone's input. To be clear, I refuse to spend a dime other than the 5k addon which I have to survive until end level 4 for. I'm not sure it's worth it to play hands with a starting stack of 10k when at best I can double or triple that by the end of the first hr. The suckout potential is too high and I take myself out of the running to play the "real" tourney. I'll
Agree with rickroll, I think you're assigning more play to the post-addon part. If you get AA in and double, you can also get in again and double again also. And if you bust, in a way, you win $5,000.
I've read the book and we understand everything you're saying. No one is saying we can "take advantage of the streaks". Those comments were firmly tongue in cheek.
That said, if you think gambling is pure math and negative variance isn't due to some malicious entity... you haven't gambled enough. That comment may or may not be tongue in cheek.
Not sure if you are talking about getting cheated by the casino or some supernatural force?
I think either has little to do with this situation and your complaints.
As for gambling too much.....as you can see by my join date I have gambled way too much! literally hundreds of millions on sports betting alone.
Lots on other AP situations too.
I won because I had an edge.
Here is a 100% true rigged casino story if that's what you mean. Many years ago there was an online casino, we ran simulations over tens of thousands of hands and it was 100% rigged.
Around 5-6% house edge (on a game that should have been around 0.5%) but they offered crazy sign up and reload bonuses.
We crushed them. It just wasn't rigged enough!
D.
i hear you, but i don't think you're properly accounting for what this format is likely going to belots of people calling shoves with hands like A6o and K9sespecially with the charity factor and rebuys, i think we're going to get a lot of super wide playi can't imagine anyone who makes it to the addon not opting to addonyes you can guarantee folding your way to the addonbut you
Rick is right, the true EV play is to go for gold with top heavy payouts but only if you have a huge bankroll.
With any gambling situation you have to look at your perceived edge vs field.
Then factor in a one quarter Kelly criterion (or less!) on any money added or sunk to account for uncertainties in assumptions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_crit...
If the money you are using breaks these rules you almost certainly gambling even if you have an edge over the field.
Variance will crush you eventually.
D.
There are other possible scenarios as well. You might see a flop in an early level -- for instance, by checking your BB after a couple of limpers -- and win a big pot. If you become the biggest stack at the table and then get dealt AA, getting it in gets more attractive since you cannot bust. Of course, you might add a few more hands to your jamming range in that situation, depending on the stack sizes.
Or you get to see a free flop early on and lose a big pot (flop the nuts, get it in, get outdrawn by a short stack). This seems less likely, but it's possible. That could also change your strategy.
i hear you, but i don't think you're properly accounting for what this format is likely going to belots of people calling shoves with hands like A6o and K9sespecially with the charity factor and rebuys, i think we're going to get a lot of super wide playi can't imagine anyone who makes it to the addon not opting to addonyes you can guarantee folding your way to the addonbut you
I also wanted to add something else that has not been considered.
One of the biggest edges you may get is the chop situations.
If you know how to correctly calculate ICM it will give you a monster edge when it comes to certain situations around the bubble or pay jumps.
Doing favorable deals can be a monster edge as well as lowering variance.
Many Many years ago I played a lot of the one table satellites at the WSOP. They had almost no rake (at the time) and were super soft.
The format was a 1 winner table so the ICM was super simple.
Thew biggest edge by far was deal making when it got down to 2-3 players. You would get an idea who was playing with scared money or shot taking.
The amount of players who chopped with me when they had a 70/30 or 60/40 lead was unbelievable.
Same when I had the lead. Many took deals in my favor so they walked away with a big win and no variance.
Don't underestimate deal making if you run deep.
D.
Well, you all are definitely giving me something to think about. I'm going to change my approach a bit- look for opportunities to get it in before level 4 and try and build a stack. If I bust pre level 5 I've saved myself 5k. If I can build a stack I've given myself the best shot to go deep that I can.
Others have alluded to it, but I always assumed play was going to be atrociously bad. In fact, I'm proceeding under the assumption a fair amount of people will plan on calling off light, assuming they will rebuy/double rebuy. So I can't really play anything other than premiums preflop. IF I can see a flop cheaply that's different but I'm assuming that's not going to happen often- I'm expecting ultra-loose/aggro from my opponents.
In all likelihood I'll make it to level 4 with the same stack anyways, given how rarely premiums come along.
leon, i just want to be clear i play cash games
while i like my reasoning and stand by it, there may be tourney dynamics i am not accounting for and there have been times in the past where i steadfastly believed a strategy was strong until i learned why it wasn't the painful way
just wanted you to bear that in mind - i think if you started a thread in a tourney poker part of the forum you'd likely get far better advice
4/16-4/19 TR
OK, long post here but as you'll see it's necessary to set the stage.
Background- A few months ago, I saw there was a "celebrity poker tournament" at the Wynn with a 500k prize pool. I asked my host if I could get an invite and was quickly denied. They were looking for a 100k trip loss average. OK, I'm running like garbage these days anyways and certainly don't need an excuse to go to the Wynn yet again. Then, just a few days later I received one of those auto-invite emailers that I'm sure every casino sends out... inviting me to the tournament??!
I snap forward to my host and ask him to sign me up. Apparently auto-marketing has more pull than my host? Anyways, so he put me in. Thus ensued the long discussion earlier in this thread about how I should maximize my edge and my chances of binking the 250k first prize! I won't rehash all the details, but these were the assumptions/realities going in-
- I'm on a limited bankroll, am looking for any opportunity to reduce costs, and have been screwed in every slot tournament/poker tournament/bink opportunity over the last however many years
- I will be the best player in the field by a mile, BUT
- this is a hyperturbo of all hyperturbos. Blinds go up every 15 min and with the field being donkey celebs/donkey VIPs, there won't be many opportunities for my skill to matter
- rebuys and addons are optional, the only addon worth getting is 50k chips for 5k cash, from a 10k starting stack. The tournament is a freeroll for me unless I buy the 5k addon
- Plan is to play tight, make it to the addon period (end level 4, blinds will be 1k/2k) and then go for it
Now I need a companion. There are a whole bunch of associated things with this event- two 19th hole viewings on Fri and Sat where you can see the celebrities playing golf, a VIP dinner at Delilah on Sat... but the reality is I need another human to accompany me otherwise I could lose a ton being in Vegas by myself. The only one who can join me is D... and he's felted. I manage to convince him, I pay for his SW ticket, he has companion pass... it ends up being a wash financially anyways. He's planning on gambling ZERO dollars. He's doing me a favor by coming, as my rock to keep me stable and keep the gambling from going off the rails if I (continue) to run bad. I'll let him shoot dice for me, but he's got no action (I can't afford it). Of course, I have dreams of binking this tourney or hitting a 6 digit score at the machines and well, if that happens... I'll get him in action somehow.
Agenda-
Thurs- get in, make massive score, try new Italian steakhouse Sartiano's
Fri- breakfast at remodeled Tableau, check out the 19th hole thing, bink tourney
Sat- breakfast at Terrace Pointe Cafe, 19th hole thing again, VIP dinner at Delilah's, hit second massive score
Sun- head home
Bankroll- 40k, but 5k is locked up in case I add on
Here we go!
Day 1
We get to the airport too early, bc I wanted to allow for the ongoing TSA madness (which I think we all know has gotten better but has NOT gone away completely). Flight is reasonable and we're in the promised land soon enough.
Have to survive. Have to survive. Have to survive. I decide to change it up- let's play dice instead, it should be slower than VP. I can't remember the last trip I opened with dice instead of VP. I've got a 10k cap on today's losses, but I know if I even hit that I'll be upset (but not tilted/dead and buried). We walk to Encore and I come in for 3k. Surprise surprise, I bet for the dealers for the first two rolls in my usual fashion, and it's point 7 out point 7 out. SAME OLD SHTTTTT that all my recent trips have been! Is it really asking that much to start well for once?!
We donk off 2k and walk back to the Wynn. D sweats me for a bit while I play VP. I decide I'm going to play more UX this trip, go back to an old favorite. Playing multiline, I can't hit something massive unless it's dealt. Playing UX, I can, and of course I can STILL GET SOMETHING DEALT there as well. I feed 1k in.
Hit this within just a few hands of starting. We're on the board!
I give back a few k and switch back to multiline. I'm almost felted for that buy in before-
Good switch?
D heads upstairs to get some work done. Can't blame him, this has to be so boring for him.
Nice little run here!
I give some back and move back to UX.
Flush after a flush on UX. Why not premium quads?!
I'm now up 7k for the day- I'm in for 2k craps, and 5k VP. And the next pic is this-
Spoiler
WTF!!!!!! What you're looking at above is me getting crushed, playing down to STUCK 2k for the day, deciding to use my free credit I came with despite of course wanting to save it until the end, and then getting about 66% conversion on that free credit.
UGH. Even looking at the pics now makes me sick. I actually got a great VP start. Wasted it. Gave it all back, used up my free credit, AND gave more back after. I'd blame D, he's here to keep me from doing stuff like this, but let's get real. It's entirely my fault (well, *** the Wynn as well). I head upstairs to give D the bad news and cool off. God I'm a donk. Stuck 8k for the day.
Freebees from the event. The golf display is mostly (mediocre) chocolate.
Free gift.
Standard room pics.
We head to Sartiano's for dinner.
Despite having a reservation, we end up waiting a true 1/2 hr for our table. In my current mood, I'm really irritated. Plus, the new pay to play club Zero Bond is right here as well, so we get to see a never-ending stream of rich douchebags coming and going. I know I'm a jerk, but I don't get this phenomenon at all. So basically if you have enough money, you can pay to be treated like a someone (I think member fees are 25k a year). It's pretty much the crowd you'd expect- a bunch of loud, obnoxious people who wear too much jewelry, have too much chest hair hanging out of their half-open shirts and have way too much cologne or perfume on.
Ah well. Eventually they get our table and I try to get my head right with some good food.
I'm trying to save a little comp and I'm not particularly hungry anyways. I'd say this place was a cross between Sinatra and a regular steakhouse. I saw a lot of things on the menu that I feel like you can also get at Sinatra. Anyways, food was 7-8/10- the veal parm was slightly better than Sinatra. Creamed Kale (?) was disappointing- there was a sour edge that I didn't like. The pasta was good, and obv we didn't get a steak. I'll be back, if for no other reason than I have to give a place another try and there's a bunch of stuff I want to try for next time.
D and I head back to the Encore for dice. I belly up to the table, bet my usual and bet for the dealers and... yep, POINT SEVEN OUT! What the hell is this run bad demon just sitting on my shoulder the last few years??!
I'm instantly on tilt. We play for a bit longer, it's never good and now I've hit my stop loss for the day. Dejected, we walk back to the Wynn. On the way there I decide I HAVE to give VP another try. I've lost just as much at dice as VP and technically I'm not down the FULL 10k (although it's close enough). I decide I'll fire 1k and see if we can make some magic happen. Hard stop. I wish instead I had remembered it technically was a >10k loss bc I'VE ALREADY USED MY FREE CREDIT! So stupid.
Anyways, we know what happened here. I put in the 1k, and lose it faster than it took me to put the money in. OK, I've had enough tonight.
Day 1 result- -11k
Day 2 coming soon...
Can’t wait to read about the donkament!
Food looks amazing.
Sorry for the run bad. Thanks for the menu and food pics from Sartiano’s. It’s on my list of places to try on my next trip.
On one hand welcome back Leon, however on another hand I’m getting PTSD from reading about UX. I think during my last trip I finally had enough and as much as I love it will give it a serious break. It’s so incredibly variance heavy. Think I had premium three of a kind with a kicker on 10-line 15 times in a row without converting to quads one single time, that’s 150 hands. I also gave craps a pretty serious shot this last trip and omg it’s even more tilting than UX.
Anyway hope day 2-3 turns the TR around!
On one hand welcome back Leon, however on another hand I’m getting PTSD from reading about UX. I think during my last trip I finally had enough and as much as I love it will give it a serious break. It’s so incredibly variance heavy. Think I had premium three of a kind with a kicker on 10-line 15 times in a row without converting to quads one single time, that’s 150 hands. I al
The last trip I never posted where I got crushed, it was exactly that. Dealt premium trips over and over on spin poker, 12-15 lines at a time. Never hit one. I hit quad 2-4s w/ kicker, that's 8k minimum. 16k for 4AWAK. Hit nothing? That's utterly unsurvivable and super tilting as well.
Day 2 part 1
Gonna be some long installments here.
I was actually in bed by 10pm last night- so ridiculous but I was exhausted, and having hit my stop loss I suppose that was the best decision anyways. So, I woke up at 4am wide awake! Historically, I have run so badly on Fridays for I don't know how long. I honestly can't remember a winning Friday ever (I know they're there though), and since Friday is actually early in the trip for me... I've grown to fear Fridays. So I have a 10k stop loss for today too. I know that's not enough to get me through if today is bad, on the other hand if today is bad and I lose too much... the rest of the trip will just be misery/scared money unfun survival mode. So, not looking forward to yet another "death Friday", I suppose it's better to play slow and small now.
Thus, I stay in the room for an hr, drink coffee and attend to some games on my phone, check email, etc. I finally head down after 5am, feeling proud I used up an hour not getting crushed.
Need a lot of rungood today Sphere!
Pretty good start here. Quarters, though.
I'm up 3k on that machine, but end up giving it all back + 1k more. Have a 4k stop loss for this am, still have 3k to play with. I move to hi limit.
Start off almost getting felted at UX and spin poker- these carny games are just SO cold these days. Move back to multiline.
Just sick. Hit 4 times with regular quads, of course.
4 times again!!!!
I know it's weird, but when I hit those regular quads so frequently, I know I'm RUNNING BAD. I realize how absurd that statement is, but it sure seems to be true. It seems like every time the regular quads are on fire, I'm never making premiums. Of course I would never turn that hit frequency down, but my lord why is it correlated with no premiums?
This session was a case in point. Never hit another premium, which at TDB is a guaranteed loser. I give all that back quickly, hit my stop loss of 4k and go back to the room. Pretty tilted honestly.
D and I have breakfast at Tableau, newly remodeled.
The menu seems mostly the same. I try the French Omelette, 9/10. Definitely a fresh take and very tasty. The remodel seems more like they just redid the upholstery/moved some things around.
After breakfast, D and I head to the Encore for more craps. It's terrible and tilting AGAIN- every time we walk up to a table, it's bet/bet for the dealers point seven out. We actually got to play a bit longer this time, but it was never good, always in a hole and I end up losing another 2k. It's back to the Wynn.
Decent session, but can't book a winner. Stuck 2k more- 8k for the day!
I head upstairs for a nap. Plan is to check out this 19th hole golf viewing after my nap, then grab an early dinner at Red 8 before tournament registration.
So, after the nap we head to the 19th hole. It's very far away, I've never been in this part of the casino before. We actually had to walk out via some doors that look like they led to a loading dock. Unfortunately for this TR, the entire event was phone-free- they confiscated our phones at every entrance. So, you'll see some pics I was able to take, but there will be no pics of the event itself or any celebs. Boo.
The set up is a bunch of tables and lounge chairs outside. They have a food station (looked pretty typical for the Wynn), a station where you can get some customized hats made, a bar, DJ etc. It was actually hard to see the golfers/celebs from the hang out area. I tend not to get star-struck or really have any idea who these athletes are (soccer is my game), but there were some BIG people there who I assume were NFL players. Here's a list of the celebs who played golf (not all played in the poker tournament, I'll elaborate later).
So I recognize the actors more than the athletes, but I knew who Urlacher, Phelps, Michelle Wei, Manziel and Gretsky are, obv.
Hats from the event.
D and I grab a bite but ultimately leave pretty quickly. It's not like we're hanging out with the celebs, and we can't see the golf. Nice set up but nothing special. After the event, D and I walk to Red 8.
We ordered these ribs, as well as the usual seabass/green beans, but I was so hungry that after I took this pic I forgot the rest!
After food, we head to the Encore Beach club to reg for the tournament. Reg closes at 7pm, tourney doesn't start until 7:30pm.
I've never been here- had no idea you had to go outside to get in! It's slightly chilly and I didn't bring a sweater- I hope the tables are in a sheltered area...
Stuck 8k for the day so far. More soon...
I am really hoping there’s some run good coming this evening
My bayesian priors for leon posting the day after getting back from a trip strongly point to yes but given the tee up of the tournament I could also see it going badly in an epic way...like leon wins the tournament and gives it all back shooting dice with some of the celebs or something silly like that
