2026 Trading Thread
Not sure how necessary a new thread is but its tradition or something.
Ironically I opened the 2025 thread asking about h
Global hyper stagflation
Positioned. Every day trump is saying the war is over or Iran surrendered or we are in active peace talks.
I don’t think the administration can weather the fallout from the conflict for very long but we will see
It’s fun trying to invest in a future outlook where the president is a pathological liar who can’t be relied on for anything
Positioned. Every day trump is saying the war is over or Iran surrendered or we are in active peace talks.
I don’t think the administration can weather the fallout from the conflict for very long but we will see
It’s fun trying to invest in a future outlook where the president is a pathological liar who can’t be relied on for anything
How do you trade at this point?
I've never in 20+ years of investing, moved my portfolio this much as I have in the past 6+ months. I've never seen this much market manipulation, and it seems insane nearly every day.
Tmw at market open for example, Trump saying the war is over today after close... when it's not. The market is going to swing again on open. I don't know how to confidently position myself anymore.
The only real tell here is currencies didn't move much, but I'm just not super confident in my positions anymore since Trump 2.0.
At some point they will back out of the conflict, cut rates, and juice the **** out of the market (imo)
They are just making absurd amounts of money insider trading off the insane volatility in the market right now (imo)
How do you trade at this point?I've never in 20+ years of investing, moved my portfolio this much as I have in the past 6+ months. I've never seen this much market manipulation, and it seems insane nearly every day.Tmw at market open for example, Trump saying the war is over today after close... when it's not. The market is going to swing again on open. I don't know how to conf
Well you're either investing long term or day trading and the volatility is great for day trading. Actually a great market to be in.
Meta and Microsoft seem like some great buys right now
Well you're either investing long term or day trading and the volatility is great for day trading. Actually a great market to be in.
Well, I'm neither. Just a casual (but active) retail investor.
The market sells off commodities and oil this past week as everyone starts betting on a war winddown because of Trump's comments, and then he gives a speech saying the opposite and everything swings back to energy and commodoties. I don't have that kind of time to keep up.
closed out on cnq. will probably just rotate into ai/tech. Picked up some MU and a little more BA
MU had one of the best earnings reports I've ever seen and has just been straight down since
closed out on cnq. will probably just rotate into ai/tech. Picked up some MU and a little more BA
MU had one of the best earnings reports I've ever seen and has just been straight down since
What's your thesis on BA? Haven't followed them closely for years, seems like they have a ton of potential but keep creating dumpster fires.
What's your thesis on BA? Haven't followed them closely for years, seems like they have a ton of potential but keep creating dumpster fires.
I might be a bit early as they are locked into some really REALLY bad contracts that will put stress on cash flows for the next couple of years but they are positioned to come out the other side of those contracts absolutely roaring with an ever-increasing contractual back log combined with overhauling internal processes the last 5-6 years.
Recently I bot: PANW, MSGS, & SABA.
Also congrats to Allbirds mgmt for taking a $4bn+ company and selling out at $39m this week. Great job all around.
The see-saw continues
Bought a couple META calls - sold them today for a nice gain. Have MSFT and LULU calls that aren't moving much.
My top 10 stocks are up 7.6% ytd vs the SP at 1.5%. Pretty happy about that given where things were.
VRT up 91% ytd woosh. MU, not a top 10 position yet, up 60%. CAT, which is, up 38%.
Big losers so far are APP [is] and HOOD [not top 10]. I still like both names a lot for the long-term.
Working on an option play where I find the 6 month high, buy a call option when it drops 25% with an expiration date of 3 months out, looking to pick up a 10% increase in price and close the position. Trying to focus on the big caps but this strategy seems sound going back 5 years on msft,goog,meta,tsla,etc. The one company that baffles me in LULU - prints money every quarter, has an amazing PE, beats projected growth yet is stale. I think the raw data will revert at some point just surprised it's where it is.
This Avis squeeze is one of my favorite things in a while.
Groupon trying to be the next Avis, although doesn't have as good a setup for sure.
Working on an option play where I find the 6 month high, buy a call option when it drops 25% with an expiration date of 3 months out, looking to pick up a 10% increase in price and close the position. Trying to focus on the big caps but this strategy seems sound going back 5 years on msft,goog,meta,tsla,etc.
If this worked reliably:
1) It would have been arb'd away already,
2) or, a multi-strat would pay you 8 figures to do it.
You have been Fooled by Randomness.
Good luck with it.
My 3 biggest $-winners YTD have been VRT, GOOG, and CAT.
Did not see that coming, gotta admit.
CAT cagr of 61% since I bought it almost exactly 3 years ago. Here I was thinking 20% would be nice.
I bot 6/18 325c on goog for 25 that went down to 6 and closed them at 18 that are now 63, so that sucks, but also goog is 25% of my port so thats pretty nice. MUs up nearly 40% since bot. BA doin pretty good as well
If this worked reliably:
1) It would have been arb'd away already,
2) or, a multi-strat would pay you 8 figures to do it.
You have been Fooled by Randomness.
Good luck with it.
yeh just messing around with different strategies - with your logic though no one would be able to beat the SP500 index funds and that clearly isn't true.
yeh just messing around with different strategies - with your logic though no one would be able to beat the SP500 index funds and that clearly isn't true.
Everything works until it doesn't😀 But what you are doing is a time tested mean reverison strategy. It is a fine approach especially when fine tuned with other indicators and levels. With good risk management it can be real profitable.
