PAHWM OOP vs sharp TAG...I def messed it up :(

We didn't call flop to fold the turn to a quarter pot bet when we hit TPTK, and we don't want to raise either. Call.

Yeh, we are off script now. It's kind of an easy call in that raising now seems pretty bad and folding is insane.

The big problem is going to be when the river is a brick and V shoves 2x pot.

Worry about that when it happens. V should have a chunk of give-ups that we beat (QT/KT/AT/AK/AQ seem like pretty terrible hands to 2x bluff with). Middling value like QQ is probably better for him to check back. Jx hands aren't exactly eager to jam for value, and might value own themselves with another small-medium bet.

In equilibrium, AJ is probably a fold to a jam. And I tend to believe that even a solver nerd probably isn't finding the number of bluff jams a solver is finding. I think we can fold the river vs a jam, even against an opponent we know is capable. If we hit a J or A, then maybe we need to call down believing V might jam worse for value. But I don't think V is jamming pure and the broadway whiffs and 1-pair type hands will do a significant amount of checking back. His jams will be value that beats us and maybe a handful of airballs. Versus his value, we lose the minimum taking this line (except for the 3! pre), versus his airballs maybe we could have bet them out but if V is taking a bet-small/bet-small/jam on this board with too many airballs he is spewing because H does have sets and straights that take this line.

Turn 220 (595 back) - T♠ 8♦ 7♣ J♥

We check, V bets 65, we call...

River 350 (530 back) - T♥

We lead 115..... thoughts?

I read the first three lines of illiterat's post in reply, then realized I've had too much to drink and I probably agree and don't need to read it all either way.

Might not have even been three lines. Something about Sub and HH3 and if I'm being honest I kind of want to murder my boss (stream of consciousness creeps in with the alcohol...). Sorry, illiterat. It's not you. It's my boss. That guy's a dick.

Anyhoo...

I know I said in my previous post that I might x/r if he bets small (I know I said that because I just re-read it), now I'm second guessing that. Like, if he bet 1/3 pot, yeah, let's x/r because that size is range-betty and I ain't buying what he's selling.

But $20 into $180 makes me wonder if he's trying to induce a x/r so he can 3B and we get dragged into a game of "whose balls are bigger", and we're wondering if the judges are looking at circumference or something else, and we just want them to keep away from our sack with those calipers.

Jesus. I may need to find a different job.

Where was I?

I don't want to raise now. Mostly because I'm mostly expecting to get 3B, and I know we're going to call, and we'll either drill the turn and he won't pay us off, or we'll brick and he'll over-bet and we'll go into a downward spiral of self-loathing and spewy tilt.

So...just call. I may think about this differently when I read this rambling mess tomorrow, but lowered inhibitions doc wants to donk most turns. Not sure why. I may have tapped into something primal here.

Just call. Donk turn. Small size. Reverse-a-roo this guy. Fold if he raises. Change tables.

I dunno. You go, Banana.

Definitely not folding.

Drunk doc wanted to raise. Then he saw Moxterite's post and something something just call.

I dunno. Is he playing street poker? Is he just screwing with us? He's triggering the grizzled veteran in me. I want to run over to him, snatch him out of his chair, slam him to the floor, and start choking the life out of him for turning a beautiful game into something ugly and twisted, like an over-aged hooker.

Maybe we can split the baby and click it back? Hard to think he's super-strong taking this line. We're going to want to lay down in traffic if he's got 65s and the river is an offsuit 4.

Getting a feeling of deja vu... You did this blocker bet on a 5-str8 river a while back and got it stuffed in your face.

Not sure if this is similar enough but it seems like better hands don't fold and worse hands don't call

If we call here, I think I'm donking all rivers.

Not sure what level we're on. Which is the level where we go for max value by trying to make it look like we're turning SDV into a bluff?

Where's Sklansky? Get him in here. See what he makes of this.

I f**king love it.

All this time, I've been reading your threads sober. Nothing made sense until now.

Jeez, what an awful week this has been for 2+2. Sklansky died, AlanBostwick (poster with The Dude avy, seemed like a great guy) died, RoadToPro just had a nasty car accident.

I didn't know Sklansky died.

First off, I want some of whatever docvail is drinking. Maybe two shots.

As to the hand, no way am I donking river ... wtf range are you supposed to have here, and what do you want to happen vs. what hand?

If we x/r flop and x turn, maybe donk river is good, but x/c x/c donk? No.

Maybe KJ/QJ calls? Even J8s/A8s/Q8s seems unlikely on multiple streets.

What do we do if V shoves? Seems like worse than a check, even if we hero call.

Maybe V folds QQ?

On second thoughts, from what I've seen recently at the casino, anything can work so maybe it's good ... brb gonna meetup with docvail for drinks.

only if you're doing this to get him to bluff raise you, and you're calling. Play 4D Chess vs this pro.

I think this might be the best post I’ve read from you and I agree. Believe me I love solvers and they’re useful, but taking a solver approach in games like you and I play is not as good as they think it is.

The story villain understands is driving his play, not pot odds, not combos, not MDF, not anything else.

You managed to get heads up with the best player at the table with the last 3bet; I don’t think I’d do it again. You have enough invested that you should call this ridiculously small bet. What do you make of this tiny wager?

I got lost in this post and you were further along than I was. I get the river donk, as you’re scared of a check thru, but I don’t like it very much. You probably won’t get raised on this board of many possibilities, but all the better hands will call.

I’ve got the ‘brute force’ people on here don’t like too much, but if you jam or even pot this flop, many better hands fold. I don’t think I would do it in this situation, but I don’t know what you gain betting thin value like this.

Don't like the river lead because (I think) we're representing 9x and he has more 9x than we do. We have A9s and 99. A9s probably check-raises flop a lot. Are we really check/calling the flop with a lot of Tx either? The only benefit I can see is getting called by KJs or QJs, but I don't really like it when he has way more strong hands than you do. Wouldn't be surprised to see him bluff raise something like 76s or 65s either.

I think someone hacked into my account last night.

Whoever it was, he was over-served.

Board is: T87 J T ... would be pretty weird to x/c flop and turn with a 9, but then donk river, IMO.

I kind of think we are repping mostly what we have:
Combos. of good one pair hands AA/KK/QQ/AJ that got here blocking.

Maybe ATs? Some JJ/TT so he can't just bluff raise all the time (and maybe SB is calling anyway?) and maybe AQ as a bluff?

Taking another look at this with sober eyes.

READS - with the HH's from V, and our read on him, I'd think we'd want to avoid playing hands with him in general, and especially when we'll be OOP.

PRE - Usually a small open size from a low stakes player, especially a rec-fish, is a sizing tell indicating a weak hand.

When a competent reg does it, I'm less certain what it means. Could be a weaker hand. Could be they're hoping to induce light 3B's. Could be they think they're the best player in the game and they're just screwing around.

Whatever V is doing, AJs isn't too light to 3B, and with not one but two straddles on, I think we have an incentive to 3B here. But I'd expect that V didn't open 2x the $12 straddle with a plan to fold to a 3B that's anything less than 4x, so I think I'd want to go 5x here, and 3B to $125, not $85.

Re-reading Banana's post detailing his 3B, it's not entirely clear, but it appears that he's in the $6 straddle, not the $3 BB. Not sure how much it changes things with one less player to get through. Maybe we can 3B to something between $85 and $125, like $105-$110. But my gut says we want to give this V a bad price to continue.

When we're only starting $700 effective, I'd think there's merit to shrinking the SPR when we'll be OOP post-flop, especially against a capable / competent V like this one.

FLOP - I could see arguments for c-betting or checking. If I knew in advance V would bet $20 if we checked, I'd prefer to c-bet $60-ish.

Since I didn't know in advance, my thinking would have been that our hand isn't quite strong enough to c-bet and call a chunky raise, and it would suck to bet-fold what I'd think is a decent amount of equity, so a check-call or check-raise seems better than a 1/3 pot c-bet.

Once V bets $20, as much as I'd want to x/r most opponents, I don't know what this guy is doing with the small raise pre, and this 1/9 pot stab size on the flop, so I guess call and hope the future provides more clarity.

TURN - when we make TPTK but any 9 makes a straight, I'm not sure if we should be happy or concerned. Feels like our decisions would be easier if the turn was just the 2s or the 6h.

When V opens small pre and stabs small on the flop, I'd think about donking, but I'm not sure why, or what it would accomplish. It feels like we'd be turning TPTK into a bluff, repping the straight. For all we know, V was screwing around with Q9 and just caught the best card in the deck.

So, I guess check again, and see what V does.

When V bets $65...I mean...even if we're beat, he's giving us such a price. I don't know why we'd fold. It's hard to imagine what worse hand calls a raise, unless there's some meta that would lead V to think we were completely FOS, and so he calls with AT or worse JX.

That's sort of what it feels like he has - worse JX. Not sure why. Seems like V could do this with KJs, or even KJo. Trying to think about other hands that would take this line. I'd think lower PP's would shut it down and not barrel turn. Maybe he's doing this with AK/AQ. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

We beat all his bluffs and worse 1P holdings. He's not going for max value if he has us beat. I guess call and see a river.

RIVER - The way this has gone, I imagine we and V both get to the river with a pretty wide range. We could have some really strong hands here, and take this line. I'd think there's merit to donking/blocking when the IP player has been micro-betting.

I have no idea what size makes the most sense, since I'm not sure how to range this guy here, or what he's capable of. If he jams, I'd be sick.

If we're going to donk, I think we need to decide if we're bet-calling or bet-folding first, and then decide what size makes the most sense. If he rips it, we'll be getting around 2.4:1 on a call.

Think it makes more sense to go small (b10-b20) if we're bet-calling and a little bigger (b30) if we're bet-folding. This size feels like a bet-fold.

Based on the prior HH3, I'd wonder if he thinks we're trying to donk-bluff him using a weaker sizing, because that's what he did to us, except he went 2x, and if that would lead him to raise as a bluff.

I don't know. My gut tells me he's not going to jam over top as a bluff, but I'm not sure why, if the read is that he's capable of getting way OOL. But this donk-block sizing seems like it might induce a raise, and I think we'll have a hard time folding to this guy when we take this line, and given what we've seen from him.

Totally expecting to bet-call, and lose. Can't imagine what he has that takes this line, then rips it in as a bluff on the river. Does he rip it in with 87/76? KJ/QJ? AK/AQ?

Wondering what he would have done if we checked again. I think I'd have preferred to check-call a jam than bet-call a jam. At least when we check to him, he can bet worse for value or bluff. When we bet, it's hard to find the intuitive bluffs that can raise. Seems like it would just be QJ.

PS - I didn't say it explicitly above, but when V clicks it pre, and we 3B small, and then all the small-ball $hlt happens...we could arrive on the river with all the combos of quads / boats / straights / trips - a huge number of very strong hands that might not raise flop or turn on a rainbow board with a one-liner to a 9, but would very likely donk river.

Most recs wouldn't donk 1/3 pot with boats/quads, but they might donk that size with a slow-played straight when the board pairs on the river. Having a J in our hand is a nice blocker, I'd think. Harder for V to have JT.

If I was V, and had Tx for trips, or even Q9, I don't know that I'd raise here. What would be the point? I wouldn't want to try to make a straight fold, and wouldn't want to risk running into a boat. I'd probably just flat call.

If V raises, even with the nut straight or trips, I think we need to seriously consider making some big adjustments when we're contesting a pot vs him.

FWIW I think its terrible. In game I was thinking I want to get QQ+ to fold. But several hands snap me off too so I think its probably bad.

Result: V folds, no show.

I don't think it is terrible. It might not be bad at all. It may have been expertly played.

We have a thin value hand. V is capable of bluffing huge. He's also capable of checking back with a hand we beat. We block some of the strongest hands, and can credibly rep those hands to keep V from bluffing us off what could be the best hand.

There's some toy-game that proves block-betting to prevent opponents from bluffing us off a hand that wouldn't want to call a bigger bet is a valid play, contradicting the wide-spread notion that we shouldn't bet to keep an opponent from bluffing us.

I think it's a nuanced situation. I wouldn't like betting a smaller size that might induce, and then folding to a raise. I wouldn't like betting the size you did, and then calling a raise. But betting the size you did, even if he didn't call, seems okay.

There's a non-zero percent chance he calls with worse. There may be some slightly smaller yet still non-zero percent chance he folds better. That x/c-x/c-donk line is generally viewed as being pretty nutted.

I dunno, Banana. There are some smarter people than me on here. Maybe one of them will come along and explain why you're stupid, and why I'm stupid too. It's always a possibility.

Until then, I think you should be happy with how you played it. You may have gotten max value, and if nothing else, you let this guy know he can't run you over.

Not looking to make you feel less good about the hand, but...

At some point I think someone suggested you should do the opposite of whatever you think you should do. The fact that you think you messed this hand up makes me think maybe there's something to the idea.

Not trying to be funny. You're not dumb, and you obviously understand the game. You may be stuck in a transition stage, on the cusp of going from bad reg to solid reg, and just need to let go of some old habits / bad thoughts that are holding you back from reaching that next milestone.

This hand makes me think you might be about to turn the corner. Keep going, Banana.