USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
The US will carpet bomb the coast before taking the island. I’d like to see a full scale invasion and just get this over with. We can’t be basing our opinions on how the Iraq war went. Obviously this isn’t gonna happen. We will probably just continue to bomb them for several months. Major combat operations will probably be over in a couple weeks.
My trip to Israel isn’t looking great. I’m putting it at 35/65. If we go we have to go to the north. I don’t think the operation to wipe out Hezbollah will be over soon. Who knows.
That being said, this could be over in a week or two.
Kharg island is too important and too strategically easy to take with a small land force to not do it .
To what end? Are you sure they're going to capitulate to US demands anytime soon to get it back? Then what about China? Iran is still getting a lot of oil to China, so they're not going put up with a major disruption.
I half expect Trump to do one final hugely bigly bombing run and call it a win and let the rest of the world deal with the Strait.
The US will carpet bomb the coast before taking the island. I’d like to see a full scale invasion and just get this over with. We can’t be basing our opinions on how the Iraq war went. Obviously this isn’t gonna happen. We will probably just continue to bomb them for several months. Major combat operations will probably be over in a couple weeks. My trip to Israel isn’t looking
Iran is orders of magnitude stronger, more prepared, and more unified than Iraq was.
also, I thought you guys already beat Hezbollah.
The US will carpet bomb the coast before taking the island. I’d like to see a full scale invasion and just get this over with. We can’t be basing our opinions on how the Iraq war went. Obviously this isn’t gonna happen. We will probably just continue to bomb them for several months. Major combat operations will probably be over in a couple weeks. My trip to Israel isn’t looking
Do you think rape doesn’t count if you do it on another continent?
they are firing like 100 per day. but it doesnt even matter, the Jewish State is trying to take over South Lebanon. Hezbollah doesnt need to fire any missiles to kill them. they keep walking into ambushes and getting torched in their tanks.
they are firing like 100 per day. but it doesnt even matter, the Jewish State is trying to take over South Lebanon. Hezbollah doesnt need to fire any missiles to kill them. they keep walking into ambushes and getting torched in their tanks.
I think only one Israeli soldier has died. They are trying to push Hezbollah back to where they are supposed to be. I wonder what exploding pager surprises the Israelies have for them.
Also, the missiles Hezbollah have are like m-80’s.
Iran is orders of magnitude stronger, more prepared, and more unified than Iraq was.
also, I thought you guys already beat Hezbollah.
Iran is more suicidal than Iraq. They may be unified hiding in a tunnel but not on the battlefield. They need child soldiers and Iraqis to help out. Also, they started a go fund me.
There is no plan, because there are no goals.
There is a series of escalations that some people misconstrue as a plan, because if there wasn't one, it would all very stupid. It is basically the strategic equivalent of trying to keep your footing when you slip.
This is Sharpiegate all over again, but this time around they made an actual crisis. Like with Sharpiegate, competent people will not be welcomed.
I agree with that in a military strategy sense. But in a personal sense, I think Trump had both: his goal is his legacy and his plan was to put the Iranian regime in a position where the door to risk of ruin opened, figuring the regime would cede to his demands.
Despite the comparisons or his admiration of them, Trump is nothing like a Hitler, Stalin et al. Those examples weren't politicians in the proper sense like Trump because they did risk ruin. Trump isn't like that. He's basically a businessman. That mindset like politicians' doesn't risk ruin; they hedge against it.
That's why he thought his plan would work: he thought the regime would back down because that's what he would do if he were in their shoes. He basically lost the lead and Iran shoved on him. And he doesn't appear to have enough support in his party to do much more for much longer, let alone the American people or international community.
At the end of the day, the world isn't totally reliant on the Strait. It's not like we can't cut our driving down 30%, etc. Look back at what the West did rationing wise in WW2. But nobody in the West is even remotely thinking along those lines. Because they're not pot committed.
I agree with that in a military strategy sense. But in a personal sense, I think Trump had both: his goal is his legacy and his plan was to put the Iranian regime in a position where the door to risk of ruin opened, figuring the regime would cede to his demands.Despite the comparisons or his admiration of them, Trump is nothing like a Hitler, Stalin et al. Those examples weren'
The world does not end because the strait is closed no, countries and economies are a lot more resilient than people in developed nations tend to think. Our variant of an economic crisis over the last 60 years has been the cozy kind where the number of citizens starving is so low that we can pretend it does not happen. One could hope that it would teach the world to drop oil dependency, but a) it is not easy b) economic and political unrest will probably make that less likely, not more.
However, a 30% drop in oil, liquid gas and fertilizer is still an economic disaster. With that will come more political unrest and a more unstable world, added to the fact that diplomacy has become banal and largely performative.
As for Trump, he is just an authoritarian in a technological and cultural era where the incompetence can't be as easily hidden. I suspect they're all mostly idiots, but with a talent for grabbing power and stealing money.
There is no plan, because there are no goals.
There is a series of escalations that some people misconstrue as a plan, because if there wasn't one, it would all very stupid. It is basically the strategic equivalent of trying to keep your footing when you slip.
Correct. I also continue to believe what I said a few weeks ago:
For whatever it is worth, I think Trump has been hesitant to articulate a long term goal in part because there is no clearly defined long term goal, but also in part because he sees little value in publicly articulating a long term goal. If you spell out a long term goal, then you can be measured by whether you achieved that goal. From Trump's perspective, it's much better to
I suspect that Trump thinks W's administration was too explicit about stating reasons (even if pretextual) and goals for the second Iraq war.
Does it matter what Trump thinks when Miller is behind all the strategy? Or is "Trump" used here as a proxy for Miller?
Correct. I also continue to believe what I said a few weeks ago:
I suspect that Trump thinks W's administration was too explicit about stating reasons (even if pretextual) and goals for the second Iraq war.
This is correct but obviously applies to every core action taken by the trump administration (tariffs, ICE, covid, now Iran, etc etc etc)
1. Break ****
2. Lie, deflect, berate opposition
3. ??????????
4. Mission accomplished, no matter where you’ve landed
It’s kind of insane to realize this fact, but no one person has done more irreparable damage to the western world than trump
Good morning!
Here is the speech The President made to announce operations in Iran. It’s a great reminder of the evil this regime has inflicted on the world and its own people for the last 47 years. The President is quite specific in his objectives contrary to TDS opinion. He is not gonna hand over the specific game plan that many of you feel entitled to. I know entitlements are a big part of your life.
I agree with you on one thing. No matter how this turns out Trump will declare victory. Also, the Iranian regime will declare victory. I have said for quite some time that an agreement will be made to where all parties can claim victory. In the end, Iran will no longer have the ability to threaten Us or Israeli interests. I would say thatÂ’s a great thing for the world.
Why is monidig so fired up?
Good morning! Here is the speech The President made to announce operations in Iran. It’s a great reminder of the evil this regime has inflicted on the world and its own people for the last 47 years. The President is quite specific in his objectives contrary to TDS opinion. He is not gonna hand over the specific game plan that many of you feel entitled to. I know entitleme
Is regime change a goal or not?
As an aside, I found the casino dirtbag version of mongidig to be much more entertaining than this "adult Trump shill" version of mongidig. This persona is quite boring.
It is not one of the original goals. They certainly would love to see it. They are creating the environment for this to be a possibility. Unfortunately the Iranian people failed the last time they had a chance. It’s not gonna happen. This regime is built to last even though they are getting crushed militarily. They will no longer be a threat to the outside world. Unfortunately bad times are ahead for the Iranian people. The problem is this war is dragging on too long. Those in Iran who hate the regime also hate seeing the destruction of their country. The people need to be 100% on board with rising up but they are no longer there. It’s the same problem we have here in the Americas. The liberals will whine and cry and in the process get American soldiers killed. This whole world should be on board with wiping out the Iranian regime. The Iranians know liberals and Europeans will be their useful idiots in preventing their demise.
