Q9s 3bp Wynn 1100 postflop sizing?

Eff stack on river is about 30k with 16.4k in pot. H has total air but has fired aggressively at every street. Top card (K) on flop paired on turn. No draws got there. I think this is totally read dependent. If you think V was calling light (A high, or small pair) and you think V will fold to pot-sized river bet at least 50% (+EV), then go for it. If you think V is going to get sticky, then surrender.

Readless, I think V is obviously calling any K, and likely any pair 7 or better. Given how dry the board was, I don't see too many draws that V wouldn't be forced to fold on turn. (What backdoor float would V have here, since A2 diamond is on the board? A7 diamond will very likely call.) So I likely give up (again, readless -- not sure how much I read into young Euro -- but if you think he'd call down to the turn with A high or pair smaller than 7, then fire away).

*Maybe you can get A high/small pair to fold with smaller bet, but to me it looks weak IP, and invites V to call down light.

I agree with this. River, I’m fine with bet big or just check give up. I lean x give up bc if they call flop and turn, they gotta expect you to fire big on river so they are prolly planning to call.

If you bet, wanna go like 60-150% of pot. Not a fan of flip sizing so deep. 1/4 is kinda small early when you have 160bb. Like 1/4 more when stacks are like 40bb average or lower.

We agree on river decision.

IDK, about bigger bet on flop. In a pot 3-bet pf, on super dry, uncoordinated, K 2 low card flop, we should be c-betting close to 100% as the IP aggressor. (Maybe we check some total air without backdoors and hands like QQ/JJ with showdown value). That usually means small c-bet. Large flop bets unnecessarily polarize on a board where we have big equity edge and few draws we need to chase away.

Our wide range 3-bet with Q9s is usually indicative of my take on Villain. That he is young and/or GTO Solver and/or overly aggro with very wide preflop range. So if Villain is wide range then he can have hands like KXs, 7Xs. But also a lot of misses with AXs/SC's that are BDFD on the flop and possibly BDSD as well. As well as a lot of Ax misses that would fold here. For me though I don't typically 3-bet with Q9s/QTs/QJs/JTs type hands (because they don't block Ax/Kx type hands and because we are often dominated). I prefer smaller SC and almost SC type hands to 3-bet.

The call of a 25% flop cbet is not indicative of anything. It could be as bad as A high with a BDFD and/or BDSD. But the call of a half pot turn bet after another K hits looks like Kx, a flush draw, a PP or 7x especially if your image is somebody who typically also bets the turn whether you have it or not. Because the K hit on the turn it makes it less likely that we have Kx hands so calling with a PP or 7x is more likely than say if an A/Q/J had hit (and it didn't help Villain).

I think the river action for me depends entirely on how Villain views us. Have we been seen 3-betting a lot? Have any of our 3-bet hands been turned over? if so, were they strong or was one or more a SC or lowish AXs type hand? Villain could have flush draw on the turn and would fold the miss on the river. But Villain won't be folding any Kx hands. And might be calling with any pairs because we can have AQ/AJ/ATs type hands. Though maybe by betting on the river it looks less like we do. I would think about a 3 bet barrel if I haven't turned over any bluffs yet. If I was betting it would be 60% pot to make it look like a strong value bet rather than a pot sized bet which would look polarizing.

Ya I mean I don’t hate small cbet size per se bc it allows us to fire turn and river with a bluff more liberally.

River- this would be sick spot to fire big and get a fold but I feel it looks super strong when they call flop and turn bc villain should expect a river net at a high %.

Btw I love the 3! Pre- I would prolly do same with hand like stated. It’s super high variance but if hero is confident in his ability to fire bluffs post flop- im good with it. I feel call is fine pre- even most mtt players will call pre here instead of 3!. I like having that option to throw in a spazzy bluff post with a perceived range advantage that the 3! Gives us.

3b pre looks good, flop looks good - the turn is a clear give up.

The only turns I would barrel are an Ace, clubs, or J/T. The J/T barrel is thin but I think with how small you sized the flop he should have a lot of non Kx that will fold to a turn bet. The problem with the turn pairing is I don't expect him to fold any middling value hands (7x/66/99/etc) as you probably only bet the turn for value with a King, so now you're in a triple barrel spot where you need it to work at a very high frequency. Once you bet the turn and he calls you need to decide how wide he called the turn - if we're assuming he has all those middling hands on the river then you should bomb away. Overall though I don't like the high risk factor of this line - so many easy spots in these tournaments to chip up slowly without showdowns then take a massive risk this early.

Good explanation. I was thinking I'd give up the turn but you worded it well.

If you think he's calling with less than a king, or he might fold worse Kx if he can talk himself into thinking you have AK, then you could bet big on the river, like pot. But as pokerfan said, it's jus such a highly risky way to play this hand. I think I give up the turn, so the river decision is "Do we ramp up the variance trying to win the pot after that turn barrel, or just give up?"

Q9s v late pos open is fine for 3bet. The small cbet folds out many A3s-AQs 65s 54s combos. The Kc gives us many turn barrel options.

Turn is weird Kd

Betting small-mid is ok. It folds out a few more Ax combos of bdf bds that don’t improve on the d turn.

But once called, we’re screwed. V has all K9s+ KQo 77 22 combos in range and will get sticky wth all pp after the K repeat.

Not every 3bet cbet sequence needs to end with you emptying the clip. Close between betting and checking turn. Either seems ok. I’m not betting river.

I pick a 3-bet range that is balanced between really strong hands and hands that are weak but have a shot and may not be dominated. Typically my 3-bet range in position against GTO/Solvers or wide range openers is AJ+/ATs/99+/KJ/A3s-A6s/SC's < JTs and >43s, almost SC's 42s. OOP I usually let go of some of the hands that are weakish like the SC's especially in the BB unless the opener is BTN/CO.

I pick KJo because for some reason that hand has done incredibly well (a high percentage of folds preflop and when called and I miss the flop my cbet often gets folds). It blocks KK/AK/AJ/KQ hands that likely wouldn't fold to a 3-bet. And yes while QJs/QTs/Q9s block AQ/KQ/QQ they don't block AK/AA/KK and Q9s doesn't block JJ/TT/AJ/AT/KJs/KTs. Probably the most important reason I prefer to not 3bet with QJ/QTs/Q9s hands is that against AK we will be 4-bet but against AQ I typically don't get 4-bet. Even QQ sometimes doesn't always 4-bet. I prefer the SC's and almost SC's that are lowish because while we don't block any normal raising hands we aren't blocked either (when called) and if called we typically have 40% chance of winning. The other reason is that I am an old white guy and nobody ever expects SC 3-bets from a guy like me. Also while we have like 33% chance of hitting the flop it doesn't matter because against non PP's Villain has the same chance of hitting their hand. And if Villain has a medium PP (or even a small one) there is a decent chance that 2 overcards hit and they might need to fold to a cbet.

My other thought on 3-betting with SC hands is that I will like a lot more flops than with 2 broadway hands and even Q9s type hands. This is because flops that have 2 broadway cards smash our "suspected" 3-bet range. And flops that have no broadway cards smash our SC range. When we cbet flops like this it looks like we could have a PP and we get overcard hands to fold and sometimes we actually have a pair (or better) or draws.

The AXs 3 bets block AT+/AXs typical raises but we often are dominated. Life. This is why I don't include A6o/A5o/A4o/A3o hands. Especially because they would make our 3-bet range not very strong on average.

Ultimately I 3-bet with very strong hands about half the time. And the KJ/SC/AXs hands about half the time. There have been times where I have only 3-bet with very strong hands and I find myself with a hand like 96s against a HJ or later open by a wide opener and I 3-bet. I would consider 3-betting with Q9s especially if I had folded many times against a very wide range guy. But I just prefer to call with QJs/JTs hands because I don't want to have to fold against a 4-bet. I want to see a flop...

There is nothing more fun than being an old guy 3-betting wide 😃

3bet hand selection is largely opponent and game flow dependent. I’m prepared to deviate more from GTO on this chart than any other.

When considering a lighter 3bet, Q+ blockers and post flop playability are key. Q9s is ideal - blocking some Qx pfr calls pre and providing both flush and str equity possibilities to apply pressure on turns in a 3bet cbet large-turn sequence.

I’m not a fan of 3betting small suited connectors because we don’t block anything, there are fewer boards we connect with, and we find ourselves forcing the action on turns too often knowing we have zero sdv.

I’m also not a fan of 3-betting A3-A6s, K9s, because while blocker effects are good, we’re dominated by much of the pfr/call range and have so little playability post. These hands, like small sc, are just easier to fold in early position, consider flatting in late position/SB, see flops cheaply, and maximise equity realisation for the lowest price.

But sometimes situational/opponent conditions trump all these considerations and it can be profitable to take almost a2c and 3bet eg v weak tight opponent, heavy icm, or w/e

I like the triple barrel line on this runout. K72 is great for your 3bet range, K pairing on turn is even better since you rep a wider set of Kx than V can have. River 6h is a brick. The question is sizing - with 30k effective and 16.4k in pot you are basically deciding between a shove and a give up. I think shoving is good against a thinking player who can find folds with mid pairs and Ax, but against a station just give up. Bubblebust is right that its read dependent at this point.