AK hand 2

I think you have played it fine so far. Some people blast off with AK, and though it works sometimes, I play it as a drawing hand.

I don’t think a raise makes sense if you feel sure v will call, but I would call here. You have a gutshot and two overcards, so I would look at the turn. You’re in for 70 with a chance to win much more - I like that better than being all-in and praying to hit something.

Villain’s range of strong hands misses this flop, so the continuation bet is offering no new info - we’re behind pp’s and ahead of most everything else.

I expect to give up and I’m willing to do so without help on the turn. Remember, from v’s pov, the call looks strong (it takes a better hand to call, than to bet), so what villain does next will be telling. With your image, villain can’t ignore the strength of your call.

If villain was auto-pilot continuation betting, he may be looking for a free card on the turn, so even if you miss, you might see the river.

The turn is where it becomes real, no more jockeying around, the polarized betting begins. Since we don’t see a lot of bluffing, if villain barrels & we don’t improve - it’s a fold.

But if he hiccups, opportunity opens for you

Pre: I wouldn't over worry on theory for pre-flop open size at low stakes. Adjust to what works best for you at the table. At 1/3, it's likely somewhere between 10 and 15. UTG+1 3 betting you is likely strong. 4bet is overplaying. I think GGs suggestion of a tight fold is not crazy especially OOP, but unless I know he's an OMC type, I'm probably calling.

Flop: Raising would be ambitious to say the least, so its between fold and call. I think it's close, and read depenedent. The RIO issue that GG brings up is real, and you could lose a lot if he has AA/KK here and an A or K hit on the turn. That said with the gutter straight draw, I'm probably peeling one.

So V limps and calls until this hand, where he 3bets over a tight UTG hero—V’s range is AK, JJ+, maybe AQ and TT. I can see why some people say fold preflop. I probably auto 4bet against a loose passive with a fold button, and often lose. I see the merits of calling in this scenario.

AP, check call with two overs and a gut shot wheel. Proceed cautiously.

Why are we deciding this guy who "has opened several times" is a nit? Lack of 3bets means little in live poker when you're playing like 25 hands an hour and many hands don't have a RFI anyway. If your sample size is 3 hours and zero 3bets then come at me and convince me, anything less than that and I'm reading little into it other than the information provided which is the guy is loose and both raises and overlimps preflop, and also has a cold calling range (which is the only argument in favour of his having a tight 3bet range).

Given that, 4betting with AK is absolutely not overplaying, these preflop decisions are not where you are going to be losing big money so 4bet, call, whatever.

There are many overpairs but also many AK/AQ type hands. It's true that if you hit the straight you may struggle to make much money (unless the guy is cbetting with KQ or something, or turns 99 into a bluff, all of which is probably overthink). Even so I'm not being bluffed off a chop that easily. Call and see a card. I don't like raising, what are you trying to represent?

Grunch:

Your image doesn't matter. It may not even be what you think it is. Most recs aren't paying attention.

PRE - from OOP, I would probably 4B this to $90, and fold to a jam.

FLOP - I think we can just fold. But I wouldn't hate on anyone for calling once.

Don't go nuts on a turn 4. If you do, he has 66/76s/65s. Not sure why. Every time I get here with AX and the turn makes me the wheel, V has 6x if I blast off.

If the turn is an A or K, I'd donk 1/2 pot.

Would you still 4 bet to 90 if you thought he probably wasn’t gonna fold?

I find that 3 bets at these stakes tend to be strong even from Lags. Especially in a non wide range situation. I haven’t played a lot of NL. I don’t see players 3 betting or 4 betting with the bluffs solvers recommend. I’m sure it happens but I’m not seeing it.

Interesting question. Why would we think that?

There's value in 4B'ing if he folds. There's also value if he doesn't fold, to the extent that we maintain an uncapped range going to the flop, and we get more value for our hand when the flop comes A or K high and V just shuts down with QQ or whatever.

I also think there's value in 4B'ing if he 5B-jams and we fold, if that means we can get away from our hand for $90, as opposed to possibly getting stacked post. Probably not as much of a consideration here, but it could be, when stacks get deeper.

If I thought his 3B range is super-tight, like just AA/KK, and he'd never fold, I might not 4B. I might just fold. If I thought his 3B'ing range was somewhat wide, like 99+/AK/AQ/AJ, and I didn't think he'd fold, I'd be more likely to 4B, and I might even size up a bit.

Played just fine preflop imo. I’m folding cheerfully on the flop and moving on. This is 1-3 not 20-40.

Grunch, depends on his calling range, doesn't it? Ldo, fold to a 5!-rip, but if passive Vs are sticky, and don't bluff enough. They're going to call with things we dominate or flip-ish with. And only 5! with things beating our butt, like KK+. The 4! will then be for value. If they fold 99-JJ, even better.

I'm also making it 110 to 120-ish at 400 effective OOP, which would make for a slightly over pot-sized shove on the flop.

AP, and with H's check facing b66 on 532r (lol at the V), it's a fold.

Against this guy I felt 4 betting would just bloat the pot OOP since I didn’t think he would fold. I did not consider the other benefits of 4 betting you described. This has been very helpful. Thank you!

You're welcome.

Not looking to beat you up, I think the flop action helps illustrate one of the values of putting in the last raise pre.

If we'd 4B, we could c-bet all flops for a small size. We have all the big PP's in our range. We could make him fold a chop.

When we just flat his 3B, we're kind of in no man's land post flop, no matter what the board is. He can make us fold a chop.

The point isn't just about who takes it down rather than chopping. It's about being able to credibly rep hands stronger than AK.

Neither of you should have any piece of this board, but the last aggressor pre can c-bet flop to rep all the over-pairs. Additionally, when we spike an A or K, or the board comes Q or J high, we don't know if V has AA/KK or QQ/JJ or TT or worse AX. We're OOP and just naturally checking to him. We'll always be guessing.

It's always a tough spot playing AK from OOP post flop. Whenever we can take the pot down pre, we should see it as a good thing.

If we 4B and he calls, it's still not the worst possible outcome. We can still win post flop, either by c-betting flop, or possibly even by making a delayed c-bet on the turn if the flop checks through.

To be fair, we'll sometimes lose more doing this than we'll lose flatting pre and x/folding post.

That's poker. She's a cruel mistress.