Don't understand fold in his in article
https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/how-c...
Spraggy is some PokerStars pro. He raises UTG+1 with ATs. Board goes A4359 without flush draws. He cbets 1/4 pot, turn goes x/x, and then he folds to 60% pot on the river.
Article says solver says check flop and solver says call river and raising river is better than folding.
Am I missing something? How can you ever fold top pair here after playing it like that? Seems really weak tight. Of course I am not a sponsored pro.
5 Replies
It looks like the article gives the main theory considerations. Perhaps he had a read or timing tell? Assuming its online, could he have timed out while concentrating on another table?
I agree with you its a surprising river fold.
Looking at those preflop ranges again, I'm not sure they used final table ranges to write this column. There's no way you're supposed to 100% call 65s or 33 from the SB vs. a covering stack raising UTG/8 at a 9-handed table when you're 5th in chips. (And even less so in a bounty tournament, where you cannot win the bounty in this hand.)
Really it's hard for SB to have a strong hand here - if he had a set/two pair OTF, he would probably x/r, if he had a diamond draw he might x/r - there are some 2x but not many possibly A2s only. I would think if he had say 88 he'd just check the river but maybe the 1 card straight draw causes him to bet. Overall I think a poor fold with very few 2x combos out there. While that's great they're using a solver here it's not necessarily the right advice - rivers like this are usually overbluffed.
While that's great they're using a solver here it's not necessarily the right advice - rivers like this are usually overbluffed.
Solver is saying like 100% call and raise is better than fold. Don't need a solver. It is obvious we are underrepresented here.
Without seeing the exact hand its hard to say definitively but a lot of folds that look bad in a vacuum make more sense when ICM is factored in. At certain stack depths near the bubble or at a final table, folding hands that are clearly +chipEV can be +$EV because of what your tournament life is worth relative to the pay jumps.
