$150 MTT, 41 left / 56 paid – BB with K9s vs 7.75 BB UTG jam - Do we call this?
Looking for thoughts on a preflop spot in a $150 MTT.
Tournament info:
7-max
41 left
56 paid
Already ITM
Blinds: 2.5k / 5k / 625
Avg stack around 35 BB
Hero: 34.2 BB in the BB
Villain: 7.75 BB in UTG
Reads / stats on villain:
26 / 18 / 8
Fold to 3-bet: 59%
Steal: 47%
So active, but not crazy. Since he’s jamming from UTG with ~8 BB, I assigned him something like:
22+ / A2s+ / A8o+ / KTs+ / KQo / QTs+ / JTs, this is being generous I think he is alot tighter with those stats. Maybe AT+.
That should be around 18%, if we widen slightly based on stats.
Action:
UTG jams 7.75 BB
Folds to Hero in BB
Hero has K9s
Hero folded
When I plugged in a reasonable shove range, K9o had about 39.5% equity.
My understanding is that the call is very close in chip EV, since I’m calling about 6.75 BB more and need roughly 40% equity depending on ante treatment, but with tournament factors / ICM and a healthy 34 BB stack, fold felt better.
Questions:
Is the assigned UTG jamming range reasonable based on the stats?
Is K9s
a standard fold here?
How much does being 41 left / already ITM matter here versus just treating it as cEV?
At what point do you start calling here — KTo? KJs? A8o? 55?
I thought this was a good disciplined fold, but I want to know if I’m being too tight in these spots.
5 Replies
I haven't put this into any software - I'm in the process of switching from ICMizer to HRC - but my instinct leads me towards a call.
I would expect his range to be a bit tighter than you give, as you say ATo+ etc, but even so.......I assume there are no bounties in play which would widen our calling range even further....
Just plug into a Nash calc. Seems like it’s an ok call but winning under 1bb. Perfectly fine spot to pass or call.
If opponent is aggro, prolly better to call. If on tighter side, fold. Can go either way. Fold is fine and call is fine. Would fold k9o tho
Probably fine to fold given how deep into the tournament you are and the ICM effects of that. Even if it's a slight winner for chips, it may not be for dollars.
I would call this. Even if villain is shoving too tight, the call should be slightly cEV+. Not that big an ICM issue, because not that much of your stack. Folding is not awful.
A bunch of factors in this for me.
Losing about 20% stack is a strong consideration. So I might fold for that reason. Especially because at best we are behind at about 40% to 45%. At worst we are going to be around 30% (or 16% specifically if they have AA). I like to gamble a lot with 27 to 40 blinds but the gamble is against a minraise when I am in the BB.
Typically people don't open exceptionally wide UTG but here we are at a 7 player table so it is more like a MP open range. Still I think there are a lot of Ax hands we would be up against. And AK/A9 would be part of that range.
I think as JK pointed out it matters a lot if Villain has been opening very wide and especially if his bet sizing has been consistent. Like if he is a whacky min raise guy when he has a monster, regardless of his stack size, then this becomes a better spot to call especially if he opens very very wide when he raises.
I would likely make this call well before the money especially at rebuy time. But here in the money it feels bad because I just don't think we will see a lot of Qx jams. And it is unclear if we would see a lot of KXs jams where X is < 9.
