Overrealizing Equity
i was looking into a spot on GTO wizard and the exact spot isn't relevant but I'm wondering how both players in a heads up pot can over realize there equity although I
know EQR between two players doesn't have to add up 100% like equity does but how if one player is overealising their equity how can the other player also do this as in my mind you overrealize your equity when you deny your opponent seeing all 5 cards
2 Replies
Equity realization is how much of the pot you win compared to the given the equity of a hand (or range) for that pot.
For BB here:
EV = 32.74
equity = 0.4746
EQR = 1.92
pot = 35.9
if they have 0.4746 equity, then they should win on average 0.4746*35.9 if they had 100% equity realization = 17.04 chips, but the sim is saying it actually has an EV of 32.74... making EQR equal to 32.74/17.04 or 192%
The values seem wrong to me but idk, but that is how it was calculated. Maybe you are looking at a specific hand for each player or something, I'm not familiar with the UI of GTOw.
if they have 0.4746 equity, then they should win on average 0.4746*35.9 if they had 100% equity realization = 17.04 chips, but the sim is saying it actually has an EV of 32.74
In HU it's actually mathematically impossible for both players to over-realize simultaneously. EQR1 * eq1 + EQR2 * eq2 always equals 1, so if one player is sitting at 192% EQR the other has to be way below 100% to compensate. In your numbers the villain's EQR works out to roughly 17%. The OP's original question kind of answers itself for the HU case.
