Turn brings bad news for AQo but we have nothing back

I would XR all in. This a spot where fish will show up with merge-y bluffs and middling value that wants protection against a fourth spade. You have enough equity that you don't hate getting called. I actually think XR jam is arguably the only play here -- fold and call are both bad.

I am not worried about the exposed burn card, either. If anything, it makes your bluff better as it blocks some of his flushes and straights that bet call.

EDIT: I also don't really understand the thread title. Outside of a J, this is one of the best cards in the deck for your hand. I would much rather turn a spade that gives me a bunch of equity (both real equity and fold equity) than turn a red ace and be drawing close to dead against a bunch of villain's range. If you don't want to play for stacks with this hand, don't cbet 2/3 on the flop.

I’m good with preflop and flop cbet.

I’m folding the turn bet. Hero is a 30 percent dog against V holding Kx, worse with 8s exposed. Your average V calls too much and bluffs too infrequently to make a jam profitable.

One in five chance of making the flush
Jack shows one out of 12 times
Maybe hitting an A or Q wins, maybe not.
Equity is not always what they tell you.

Yes, I would barrel small on the turn, folding to a raise. As played, villain let you off the hook - by your own definition he’s putting money in with a good hand, so fold.

Is his hand good enough to call a jam? Maybe not, but it seems like an unnecessary risk.

You’re not over-folding here, but if you want to gamble, there’s a good chance villain is strong enough to pay you off if you hit the river. But I don’t like the bluffs when you miss (which will be most of the time) so I suggest you fold.

Doyle folded pre-flop

This hand can pretty easily be reduced to a math problem. When we are bluffing with chunks of equity, with a bunch of dead money in the pot, we don't need villain to fold very often before the bluff becomes profitable.

https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-cal...

Using a basic fold equity calculator, if we have 35% equity when called, we only need villain to fold a quarter of the time to be breakeven. People really think villain calls >75% of the time here? I don't think you have xjammed enough turns if that is the case.

Ship it. Some villains might even fold 2 pair here.

If villain turns over K9hh, we have direct odds to call.

If the argument is that villain always has a nutted hand when he bets pot here, I would need to see more than just a Stupidbanana read to believe that.

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - seems fine.

I could see arguments for checking, betting smaller, or betting bigger, but the EV's of each option seem pretty close, depending on how often we think V is going to stab when we check, or fold when we bet.

TURN - on a nut changing card, we could just bet small, but checking also seems ok.

As played, V only has $175 left? Yeesh. If our read is that he's uncreative and face up, I think we can just fold here, when he bets almost full pot on a flush card. Doesn't seem like we have the right odds to continue.

Kind of unhelpful to SB, but: I think you can do a lot of stuff here based on reads and/or your ranges, and solver probably doesn't fold.

Sub. probably tells everyone who thinks fold might be best long term to quit poker and take up knitting, so probably another reason to not advocate for that.

Saying that ...

I think it might be really close to V calls 100% of the time here with value.

Like preflop is whatever fish random clicking buttons and it could be anything ... but then V called 2/3 pot on the flop, and then bet 6/7 pot on the turn with less than a pot behind if we shove. The extra spade isn't bad in a vacuum, but I wouldn't be shocked if randoms decide that H never has a flush because of it and are never folding a flush now if they ever were.

I've been here enough, and bad fish shrug spew call wide (like lol snap with red JJ) and trying fish will often decide they "have" to call now due to pot odds or whatever. I'd set the line at maybe 5% folds here, and that might be well be too high. Wouldn't be shocked if V called with QJo with a spade, before he folded value hands that take this line. Like I've seen mohegan 1-2 players who say they are big winners and will move up to 2-5 soon have like 9s6s and think they are geniuses for the line (esp. when you shove turn and they snap).

Can't think of two pair that V would play this way and not snap call. Like if 86hh is bad enough to call the flop, you think it's good enough to bet big/fold turn?

The only wrinkle is if V will bluff river with air, if you call turn (certainly possible with 20s asian) ... and if so and he's bluffing worse on the turn enough then there's a chance shove is better than the other options, without reads that let you call river.

Banana gives no read on V’s post flop play. In my player pool your average player bluffs too infrequently and calls too wide on the turn.

I would just bet the turn if I bet the flop. We get him to fold enough hands. With the As in your hand, all of those spades on the board, and seeing the 7s burn, the chances of him having a flush are pretty low.

I would bet a sizing that gets him to fold all of his Tx and straight draws without a spade. On the river, I would bet a sizing that gets him to fold most Kx or check if I think that he doesn't fold it.

As played I would fold. Let's face it, when a fish nearly PSB on a scary board for 25% of his stack, he's probably towards the top of his range and not folding. Or he won't believe that we would check a value hand on the turn.

Who hurt you, illiterat??? Haha. In one thread I am reading, you are saying that hero has no implied odds to call with a draw because villain never pays off on an ace or flush card, and now you are saying that villains will just auto-snap second pair no draw because of pot odds.

I get that villain is showing a ton of strength here, and I agree that he may call some QJ with a spade and J9 with a spade, but I just disagree that he has close to zero folds.

If villain shows up with 96ss, it's annoying, but I am just saying nh and moving on. It's one of the only flushes he can even have -- I am counting QJss, J9ss, 96ss, 65ss, 64ss, and 54ss as the only "reasonable" ones, and some of those are even pushing it if villain is actually close to 35% vpip.

Curious to see the reveal here, but I kinda get the read from OP that we fold.

As a general rule of thumb if you bet the flop and your equity increases on the turn you want to keep betting - I think it's a big mistake in this spot to check the turn. Now our options suck

Result: I check/raise turn AI.. V calls with 6♦ 6♥ and river bricks.

Devil’s hand
He slow played the flop & let you off the hook on the turn, but you had to find out.

I have been less quick to jam draws (thank you forum) and have noticed a lot of bad all-ins lately. For instance, a reg that I like and is generally well-liked by the room, left pissed when I stacked him. He’ll be ok when I go back this week, but was not happy in the moment.

I raised with QQ with two callers
Flop came Q7A and my buddy jammed his short stack into me.

Then people come over asking who stacked B as they saw him leave pissed, and they point to me. It seems unfair, because he started with 500 & had about 175 when I won. He really stacked himself earlier.

Bottom line:
Spent a lot of my aggressive life value owning myself facing hidden sets like your example. Believe me it’s still hard, but I have become much better at not bluffing off my stack, and recognizing that I must be beat.

Agree with illiterat that we probably don't have much if any fold equity on the turn, after V bets almost full pot.

Whenever any opponent bets big on the turn, I don't have many, if any check-raises. Certainly not raising with bluffs, unless I strongly believe V is capable of bet-folding with thin value, and I have a monster combo draw.

If we wanted to barrel turn, we could bet small, like half pot or even a little less. Once we check and V close to pots it, he's just telling us he loves his hand.

We're probably not getting paid on a river spade, and our bluff doesn't have much chance of getting through, so I'd just fold.

The problem with checking the turn is he can check behind middling value hands that maybe you could bluff him off of, and he can bet bluffs/strong hands and we're not sure what him betting near pot means. Of course if we bet we're uncapped so he can't bluff raise us generally speaking, we get an opportunity to fold out hands ahead of us, and we get to dictate action where we still have reasonable equity. Just a much easier/cleaner line limiting our risk

I would limp in as per my style. Decent result though (if expected) of playable SPR 9 against an ABC fish, albeit OOP.

I probably cbet slightly smaller, buy whatever. Could easily have the best hand, at worst should have a bunch of equity, and if he calls a very small bet with a super wide range we may be able to barrel him off weak but better hands on the turn.

Have no idea why we are flustered by the meaningless dealer mistake?

Think I'm also checking the turn now that the main draw came in and I don't want to be blown off my draw.

And now probably just sigh fold versus an ABC player's large turn bet. ETA: I'm clearly in the camp that feels we have little FE against someone labelled an ABC fish when he makes an almost PSB on a later street and stacks behind are hardly massive. Make moves against weakness, not face up obvious strength; in "boring" games you often just have to take the obvious boring line, imo.

GcluelessboringgamesnoobG

Over the long run, probably mostly me? I might have said differently in the past, but on reflection is was almost certainly me until the last year or so (the delusion of being good "now" is ever present).

As I said, I've shoved turn here a bunch in the past ... and I've probably run at EV, even if I like to think I've run under EV, but it got to a point at Foxwoods where old guys would snap call K9o!s here vs. me and eventually I realized maybe I don't need to set fire to $100s almost every time just for the lolz of saying I'm balanced and they are calling stations.

You can 100% win money in the long run by folding when the fish have it, and they are telling you they have it, where you just lose less "than you should".

I recently "hurt" some young kid who had been limping too much and raising a bit, but was playing wide ... and then he raise AKo EP and I 3bet AA on the BTN, and he pretty much snap 4bet shoved.

I'm sure he still thinks it was a cooler, and that I'd been aggressive so it was fine and solver approved but in reality I probably fold AQo, pure call JJ and even mix 3bet QQ vs. his open. How many years will it take that kid to realize who hurt him?

Longer than the OMC's here are likely to last.